Member Info for JTS13

First, given that something around 80% of predictions never come to fruition, I general don't pay much notice to Broker notes.

This did take me a bit by surprise though: "Central Asia Metals Plc : Canaccord Genuity cuts target price to 190p from 265p * Central Asia Metals Plc : Canaccord Genuity cuts to hold from buy *" Why? Just generic cuts within the sector?

That said, I think the technicals here are looking favourable for a rebound to 220.

Not to mention that commodities all appear to have bottomed out. Lead, zinc and copper all looking v nicely primed on the charts.

Pay day tomorrow = topping up another grand into CAML :)

Really?

I ended up selling my POLY at HL due to understanding that they wouldn't hold. V frustrated if they will, as intention was same as you. Long term Outlook etc

5 years from now. War will be over and [hopefully] a distant memory. POLY will have listing in AIFC, but likely also relisted on LSE or some other mainstream exchange. Share price likely £15-20 range

There could be a bleak period where shares are delisted, AIFC trading is not convenient etc but for those willing to wait, is it so bad?

Is to do with wider macro events. Majority of IIs expect a recession. Copper price historically drops during a recession as firms cut back on production. CAMLs just being pulled down with the pack. Copper price still high to historical numbers, so potential for more drop.... look at zinc and lead which have suffered much worse. We make that too

Think it was Goldmans who said this week that Copper demand is actually still anticipated to rise this year due to China reopening + green demand (renewable industries). So, may be gloomy for a while, but bounce back may be strong

I've a core holding here, but am storing up cash for doubling up nearer end of this year ir whenever it looks terribly oversold. For this, I mean per technicals, not fundamentals as it is already oversold on those

Same

Also, my ISA includes government top up. If I were to sell and transfer, then I'd need to return 25% to government due to early divestment. This, I don't want to do, haha

I had opted not to sell any of my shares, as the opportunity for increased returns in the entity looked promising to me. However, disappointingly, HL sold the entire lot at 163p!

Will I buy the new entity? I don't know. But disappointed in HL for selling without consent. No doubt SP will take off in the coming weeks

Not to mention that the deal also includes 20 787s and 10 777s, each compatible with RR engines too, although not exclusively so we'd have to wait for an announcement

Much of the market is run by technicals, not fundamentals. CAML has a descending trend line all the way back from early March 2018. The line has NEVER been broken. Selling at that line has ALWAYS generated 15%+ drop

Caml entered this week at the tip of the trend line. So, some selling pressure by IIs trading on technicals was inevitable

Personally, I think it's just a matter of time now.

I recognise the article last Friday suggested copper prices to suffer during a recession. However, almost everything I have read has been that commodities are likely to rise during the recession due to the reopening of China. This is supposed to make matters worse for average Joe, but present a pending shift in cycles... Copper is currently testing the descending 20month MA. Its momentum and other technicals are looking favourable. If breakout happens there, then this will make CAMLs own breakout inevitable. I would predict to happen during the run up to the dividend in the spring. But that's just a guess

The 50% share price increase over recent couple of weeks was indicating some type of leak. This was unexpected however.

I've mixed feelings to be honest. All the good assets are being taken at a steal, and quite significantly discounted to where they'd have been priced just 12 months ago. NEXS share price is low because of being grouped in with housing and infrastructure stocks, not because its own performance is poor

My average is around 1.50. Didn't sell out last year because I thought this could do amazing in the long term.

Profit is profit... but think the number here is too low

For those making reference to the charts, it may help to reference 'what' on the charts...

Essentially, POLY has been in a triangle formation (take the highs from Mar 30th and spike on 20th Jul, then the lows from 8th Mar and 14th Jul). You can see price bounced off the lower ascending trend line on 6th Sep to remain within the triangle.

What is important though is that (1) the macd has just turned positive. This indicates further bullish days ahead (unless unexpected events happen). (2). Today has broken through the descending trend line ... important cause there was only six trading days left for a decisive move up or down to occur. (3). Weekly close above the 20MA is essential to cement the rise, and mark potential reversal of downward trend that has been in place since late 2020.

This is a buy and hold for me. Look at it every few months, but once russia-ukraine situation has stabilised OR assets are sold off, this should easily be 5 quid with decent divis. Monitoring technicals can be reassuring, but ultimately this is a waiting game.

Indeed, massive overreaction. Buying in now would be akin to buying in ex-divi, but still with prospect of a whopping divi in Autumn

A weekly close above 250p would mark break out from downtrend in place since 10th May 2021. A few hurdles around 280 due to resistance line from Mar 2018 and May 2021 tops, but maybe we are finally in with a shout for a decent rally here...at least until ex divi date and assuming copper proces don't take significant dip

Sent inquiry to CAML asking them to issue a statement and clarify impact that the war has had on their operations. Received the below reply:

"...As you rightly say, if our operations were in any way affected by the awful events in Ukraine, we would of course have made a statement.

Our operations have not been affected by the events in Ukraine and the production and sales of our metals is as normal.

I hope this helps.

Kind regards,

Louise Wrathall
Director of Corporate Relations"

I messaged back that obviously the market was unconvinced and that a public statement should still be made. On Twitter at the very least!

If the market genuinely believed that CAML was not remotely impacted by the war, then this would be surging, not dropping

1-2 years from now...?

Suspension is a real possibility in the short term. Crashing down to lows during the Crimea Annex in 2014 not entirely out of the question (though unlikely). Lots of negatives in the short term.

But once this is cooled down and world somewhat back to normal another 1 or 2 from now... Assuming POLY remains listed, will it be around 7 quid or somewhere else? That's the main question for those on the sidelines

In Jan 2020, before Covid, before stimulus, before rise of gold (still around 200$ up), before inflation etc POLY SP was higher than today and in a very strong uptrend.
Who knew that increase in gold price, inflation etc was bad for a gold miner?

Copper is down 10% from its mid October peak. That'll have something to do with it

However, doesn't really explain the drop cause CAML hasn't reacted one bit to the almost 75% increase in copper since pre-Covid prices. We are unfortunately signifcantly underperforming sector peers

You mentioned BoE interest rates there... just reminded me that this is a great time to be in a company that is pretty much debt free

What a novelty!

Caml is well positioned for whatever happens!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FB57ylcWYAEeObQ?format=png&name=small

This comparison says it all. CAML has barely moved in 2 years, whereas commodities and sector has grown substantially...

Weekly MACD is looking to cross again, RSI picking up and we are almost back above the core resistance levels now forming support (250p). Hopefully CAMLs time is finally arriving

Probs a fairly good time for you to enter as copper charts are excellent and CAML charts are increasingly bullish too.

I don't quite get the original question though. The whole thing here is LOW debt within company offering direct exposure to core commodities during a commodity boom...hence the excellent dividend and fact that they are rolling around in so much cash that they are looking into further acquisition

Debt is the last thing Id worry about with caml