Member Info for JTS13

3 quid should have been easy when copper was $3... its now cleared $4.2 but we are still in the same range for when copper was around $2.5

Maybe this will click one day and a quick rise past 5 pounds could happen. But I'm not holding my breathe

Gotta be one of the most undervalued plays in the space globally right now

And this is exactly why I am here...

"eSmart Networks, our smart energy business, has gained strong traction during the period, with revenue increasing by more than 150% year on year. The order book has also increased substantially during the six-month period, increasing by £8.4m to £12.2m, a 450% increase over the same period last year (H1 2020: £2.2m). The business is establishing an impressive client base in the electric vehicle charging, industrial electrification and renewable infrastructure sectors."

Aren't people reading this beyond the headlines?

Production forecasts remain untouched - that's bullish
Price margins are high - that's bullish

OK, the drop in Q1 production is due to ore grade being of lower quality (please read people!), but they're making a mint from this and will be making up for the volume in due course.

I would have liked a short commentary on numbers, like revenues being 25% higher and profits having increased 40% or something like that. However, CAML have never tried to impress and the pro-forma operations update forms are poorly understood by a market audience that doesn't read beyond a couple of sentences... has always been one of the problems here.

US inflation news is bullish for gold. Negative rates officially here. Inflation given at 2.6% (a wopping 13.2% on energy related products!!!) and set to grow. Given that bond rates are around 1.6%, it is now official that bonds (the recent choice for inflation hedge) officially deliver negative returns.
Mentioned in earlier post that we wanted Gold to cross the 50 day MA. That's been the ceiling this past week, but expecting it to be broker very shortly as the decline in that is steep. Can anticipate a little choppy trading over the next few weeks / couple of months as gold reclaims some core support targets, but it looks to me that the floor has been established and that it we'll see II's beginning to return to gold/silver miners throughout the next month or so.

Not completely out of the woods, but congrats to the LTHs who have stayed with it. Anticipate some froth as POLY clashes with it's own declining MA 50 around 1500, but think we'll start to see inclining 20 MA (currently around 1450) as support for now. Crazy to sell any time soon!

I wont reply too much on crypto here @Ade as conscious this is POLY board

You're still required to pay capital gains tax on crypto profits. I read somewhere though that (in the States) less than 1% of people actually pay their taxes cause most don't know, and those who do just don't put it on their tax returns. Given the point of blockchain is to make everything much more transparent with permanent / public ledgers etc, it's a ticking time bomb for anyone who's raking it in but not telling HMRC. The tax man will get around to it eventually

The market is highly volatile, but follows core technical same as here. OK, sure you get occasional 20-30% sell-offs, but that could be your standard 38% fib retracement after a 100% rise in just a few weeks. It's horrible when it happens to you, but it's healthy and needed for the market. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Part of the challenge is that the crypto market has a large following of younger / inexperienced followers who are buying positions based upon some bloke on twitter or youtube's recommendation. The volatility follows this emotion like a charm... and is actually reasonably predictable. "Holding" and top slicing at pre-set levels is the aim of the game. Same as here, just the percentages may be higher

Think of it this way... It took 10 years to get 1 trillion $s. It took 2 months to double that. Short term correction due? Perhaps. Also just shows the effect that increased adoption & utility has, and when a player like Cardano brings on several hundred million users by the end of the year, more money will follow.

I got into Crypto very late (end of last year). Was hacked off with gold and silver performances so transitioned my ETF holdings into crptyo and started learning about it. Put in around 10% of portfolio and it's multiplied organically. Equally, I've added to POLY during that time. Whilst I'm out of gold now directly, I'm still bullish mid-long term here because it's where traditional institutions will come when the time is right. Also, I think it's important to diversify. POLY is my largest gold miner holding and probably top 10 holding in my portfolio (although it has slipped down a couple of positions of late)

Anyway, good luck either way

Evening Ade: Crypto taking much away from companies like Poly? Directly? No. Indirectly? yes.

Crypto attracts a certain range of investors. e.g. younger generation that's disenchanted with global financial systems; tech enthusiasts; fin-tech enthusiasts; die-hard inflation believers that also believe centralised finance is rigged so want alternative inflation hedge, etc etc There's no doubt that this creates a degree of competition for traditional havens. Maybe only a few % of crypto wealth would have been put into gold plays if crypto wasn't around, but a few % of 2 trillion dollars is nothing to sneeze over. Would easily have helped move bullion north, and with that, Poly. It's hard to objectively argue otherwise

For me, crypto plays like bitcoin is for people who don't have a clue about crypto. Sure, there's a narrative that it's like digital gold. i.e. the benefit is that it doesn't come attached with logistical / storage / security costs traditionally limiting access to bullion to the rich... The key thing is that the big banks are officially advising their top customers to keep 1-2% of their assets in crypto. KPMG and other big consulting companies are also exploring impact of integrating crypto into Basel IV. That is huge!

Besides that however, Bitcoin has got no utility and never will (as far as I'm aware). If you want to look into crypto, watch some youtube documentaries on where Cardano and Polkadot are heading. You'll quickly understand that dismissing crypto today is like denying wifi will take off 30 years ago. Blockchain and crypto is a no brainer. Every major & central bank in the world is looking into it - and for good reason

Quick follow-up on latest post from 19th March:

Encouraging consolidation in POG continues. We've also reclaimed the 200MA on the 4 hr chart (first time since January!). Likely to encounter resistance ~1750 due to falling 50MA (daily) and ceiling set on 18th March. Gold ranged as expected in my last post (with exception of sudden drop on 30th Mar which was convincingly bought into though). I'd like to see a close over 1750 for gold before becoming optimistic

A bit surprised that POLY hasn't responded to any of this price action in gold over the past few weeks. It looks like POLY charts are lagging gold by a couple of weeks. "IF" that is the case, and it's just a matter of people holding off for confirmation from gold before joining back in, assuming gold can get that close above 1750 within the next fortnight, then I can see POLY rising to tackle 1520-1550 before too long. Given that this goes ex-divi early May also, if Gold can even just stabilise (let alone increase), then we may be looking at the recent lows as nothing more than history. Here's hoping!!

Results in line with expectation. Divi resumed is what the market wants. 10p+ was hopeful at best. People need to remember that copper crashed last year.
This should be last hurdle to rise... Divi in 1 month and Q1 results (which will be best on record by a looooong way). Much to look forward to

No problem at all @Martin

@Primus, CAML's my main copper play. Wasn't convinced by RMM myself, but agree that there's a play there is willing to take the risk-reward. At this stage, one of the challenges may be timing a buy in somewhere else. Several of the other miners have already risen strongly with the rise in copper prices, so there's arguably a risk of price decline whilst copper consolidates.
Don't know about others, but I think it's totally fair to ask broad questions that are somewhat related. e.g. it's still copper after all and everyone on here should have some degree of interest in what's going on in the wider copper sector. All the best with your investments

16k shares is a good holding. Wish you the best with that Derby

I can't see POLY being bought out cheap. It's a mining major after all, and I'm sure that there would be Russian interests limiting an international takeover.

That said, I'd be very happy if there were a bid at 25 quid a share. SP would still jump to close that sum on the news even if we were to turn it down

Lol @Dartron. Obv that wasn't intention

@HeatherSmall, it's a somewhat similar play as what JPM do with gold and silver. Basically it's not about driving the price of a stock up or down, that's irrelevant to them. What you want to be able to do is control a sufficient amount of the liquid stock to control the direction of the share price at any given point of time. i.e. you create a range that becomes predictable. The highs and lows are not exactly, but close enough guaranteed.
With regards to the wedge, I've quickly put that in a chart here for visual reference: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PcVsDWoT/ The top line shows the time to sell. There's a supporting resistance at ~240, otherwise it's down to the lower line. OK, this is an oversimplification that ignores other factors, but the point is that they can make 10-20% every couple of weeks. They don't care about the actual share price, they care about controlling it's movement and keeping it in these ranges.... this then gets frustrating for people who buy close to the highs, and also frustrating for fundamental investors who buy towards the lows but are anticipating a stronger play... and the reason this can happen is because there aren't enough regular investors in this stock (referred to as liquidity). With JPM being based in the US, they don't follow the standard reporting frameworks. And you can see via the holdings RNS on 12th Jan that they don't actually "own" the shares, they're just trading them. It's typical JPM

IF there is finally traction and the share price breaks through the ceiling (top line), which eventually happens as these wedges get closer to their end and the range becomes smaller, then the bank holds off, let's the rise take place (they profit from this too remember) and then start again once the rise has cooled off.

Again, I'm over-simplifying, but hopefully it gives an idea of what goes on

In my view, CAML could move to quarterly dividends and provide more off-the-cuff updates on strategic issues. This'd help reduce the cyclical nature of the play whilst also make shorting more risky for the big banks. I think these sorts of actions would have a stablising effect on the SP and help it rise... but, what do I know in the end?

CAML's is classic wedge formation. I think I mentioned that I almost sold out after the JPM RNS drop, they're particularly known for taking stocks with low liquidity and manipulating the share price...
Wouldn't be an issue if CAML bore any resemblance to copper prices. But given that our forward earnings at these prices are around double what they were pre-covid, yet our SP has barely budged, it's just insult that the SP should drop so radically on nothing... anticipate results next week and then normal 20%-ish rise up to the dividend. Still an increase, but v disappointed this year
As things stand today, CAML is at same price as it entered into 2021. Even after the recent drop in copper prices, copper is still up 12.5% compared to prices at beginning of Jan. That's profit on every kilo of copper mined that is literally not accounted for in our SP. But still, SP manages to find a way down

Not signed in for a few days, but surprised to have seen POLY still sitting at the lows. There's definitely something going on with the SP as fundamentals are looking stronger by the day, yet the technicals are indicating attempt to challenge the recent lows..Gold has been consolidating nicely and is looking like it is about ready to start gaining some momentum... this should be good for POLY.

Broader market sell-off today. Not entirely unhealthy. Let's see where we are in a few weeks time

Welcome, have a good weekend

PS: see my posts from 25th Feb and 4th Mar

25th Feb was prediction for this to potentially drop to around 1400, with 4th Mar questioning potential pause in downtrend. Sure, that question remains, but I'd be buying now if wasn't already in

Anyway, just thoughts from a fellow novice, but hopefully the consistent messaging in my posts may instill some confidence in where we are at

All the best

Hi Ade, think you need to take another look at the charts. Gold is looking v positive right now. 4hr chart has nicely settled over 50 day MA and using that as current support (thats v important), we have just reclaimed the 20 day MA. So some further volatility expected whilst that swings to positive gradient. Weekly rsi and macd have started to turn and more their way out of oversold territory, and monthly has bounced of support, not to mention that the 1650-1700 range was pivotal historic reference point also and fib retracement target... basically, putting it all together, it's indicating that we are in ongoing consolidation phase and that there is potential for uptrend to resume

"Boring" with the above context is potentially prime time to invest.

I'm expecting gold to range for a while yet, but this is actually better than my expectations cause I was hoping for q3 return to uptrend. If we can bring this forward a couple of months, thats excellent news for gold, and thus also POLY

trishintel DOT com/manufacturing-is-back-and-so-are-inflation-concerns/

"Meanwhile, in what some might consider concerning for inflation, the prices paid index jumped to 74.4 in March from 54.4 in February. This is the highest increase since 1980. "

Expect this to be ignored or downplayed by mainstream media / government, but this has potential to be very concerning for upcoming years (good for gold and gold miners though)

https://trishintel.com/manufacturing-is-back-and-so-are-inflation-concerns/

"Meanwhile, in what some might consider concerning for inflation, the prices paid index jumped to 74.4 in March from 54.4 in February. This is the highest increase since 1980. "

Expect this to be ignored or downplayed by mainstream media / government, but this has potential to be very concerning for upcoming years (good for gold and gold miners though)

A quick look at the charts (everything 1 hr to 1 wk) is saying sell... but absolute madness!
10% spread this morning. Some people are trying to do anything to get this to go down

Results at end of month. If we don't rise into that, we must rise during April with both divi announcement and Q1 update, both of which will be brilliant

Most IIs are shorting gold, even some who have conviction on the long gold narrative (see some Kitco news guests and its clear). As such, gold miners are a bit tainted

However, I consider it madness to consider selling any. This is time to start building the holding (if not already). General consensus seems to be that H2 will see uptick in gold. There will be a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines. The fundamentals across the big gold miners are really good, is just a matter of time

Poly is my main gold miner (mostly cause they are also big in silver and looking into copper), cey next and then a few other plays for hedge... each to our own, but the sector will likely rebound together