Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
16k shares is a good holding. Wish you the best with that Derby
I can't see POLY being bought out cheap. It's a mining major after all, and I'm sure that there would be Russian interests limiting an international takeover.
That said, I'd be very happy if there were a bid at 25 quid a share. SP would still jump to close that sum on the news even if we were to turn it down
Lol @Dartron. Obv that wasn't intention
@HeatherSmall, it's a somewhat similar play as what JPM do with gold and silver. Basically it's not about driving the price of a stock up or down, that's irrelevant to them. What you want to be able to do is control a sufficient amount of the liquid stock to control the direction of the share price at any given point of time. i.e. you create a range that becomes predictable. The highs and lows are not exactly, but close enough guaranteed.
With regards to the wedge, I've quickly put that in a chart here for visual reference: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PcVsDWoT/ The top line shows the time to sell. There's a supporting resistance at ~240, otherwise it's down to the lower line. OK, this is an oversimplification that ignores other factors, but the point is that they can make 10-20% every couple of weeks. They don't care about the actual share price, they care about controlling it's movement and keeping it in these ranges.... this then gets frustrating for people who buy close to the highs, and also frustrating for fundamental investors who buy towards the lows but are anticipating a stronger play... and the reason this can happen is because there aren't enough regular investors in this stock (referred to as liquidity). With JPM being based in the US, they don't follow the standard reporting frameworks. And you can see via the holdings RNS on 12th Jan that they don't actually "own" the shares, they're just trading them. It's typical JPM
IF there is finally traction and the share price breaks through the ceiling (top line), which eventually happens as these wedges get closer to their end and the range becomes smaller, then the bank holds off, let's the rise take place (they profit from this too remember) and then start again once the rise has cooled off.
Again, I'm over-simplifying, but hopefully it gives an idea of what goes on
In my view, CAML could move to quarterly dividends and provide more off-the-cuff updates on strategic issues. This'd help reduce the cyclical nature of the play whilst also make shorting more risky for the big banks. I think these sorts of actions would have a stablising effect on the SP and help it rise... but, what do I know in the end?
CAML's is classic wedge formation. I think I mentioned that I almost sold out after the JPM RNS drop, they're particularly known for taking stocks with low liquidity and manipulating the share price...
Wouldn't be an issue if CAML bore any resemblance to copper prices. But given that our forward earnings at these prices are around double what they were pre-covid, yet our SP has barely budged, it's just insult that the SP should drop so radically on nothing... anticipate results next week and then normal 20%-ish rise up to the dividend. Still an increase, but v disappointed this year
As things stand today, CAML is at same price as it entered into 2021. Even after the recent drop in copper prices, copper is still up 12.5% compared to prices at beginning of Jan. That's profit on every kilo of copper mined that is literally not accounted for in our SP. But still, SP manages to find a way down
Not signed in for a few days, but surprised to have seen POLY still sitting at the lows. There's definitely something going on with the SP as fundamentals are looking stronger by the day, yet the technicals are indicating attempt to challenge the recent lows..Gold has been consolidating nicely and is looking like it is about ready to start gaining some momentum... this should be good for POLY.
Broader market sell-off today. Not entirely unhealthy. Let's see where we are in a few weeks time
Welcome, have a good weekend
PS: see my posts from 25th Feb and 4th Mar
25th Feb was prediction for this to potentially drop to around 1400, with 4th Mar questioning potential pause in downtrend. Sure, that question remains, but I'd be buying now if wasn't already in
Anyway, just thoughts from a fellow novice, but hopefully the consistent messaging in my posts may instill some confidence in where we are at
All the best
Hi Ade, think you need to take another look at the charts. Gold is looking v positive right now. 4hr chart has nicely settled over 50 day MA and using that as current support (thats v important), we have just reclaimed the 20 day MA. So some further volatility expected whilst that swings to positive gradient. Weekly rsi and macd have started to turn and more their way out of oversold territory, and monthly has bounced of support, not to mention that the 1650-1700 range was pivotal historic reference point also and fib retracement target... basically, putting it all together, it's indicating that we are in ongoing consolidation phase and that there is potential for uptrend to resume
"Boring" with the above context is potentially prime time to invest.
I'm expecting gold to range for a while yet, but this is actually better than my expectations cause I was hoping for q3 return to uptrend. If we can bring this forward a couple of months, thats excellent news for gold, and thus also POLY
trishintel DOT com/manufacturing-is-back-and-so-are-inflation-concerns/
"Meanwhile, in what some might consider concerning for inflation, the prices paid index jumped to 74.4 in March from 54.4 in February. This is the highest increase since 1980. "
Expect this to be ignored or downplayed by mainstream media / government, but this has potential to be very concerning for upcoming years (good for gold and gold miners though)
https://trishintel.com/manufacturing-is-back-and-so-are-inflation-concerns/
"Meanwhile, in what some might consider concerning for inflation, the prices paid index jumped to 74.4 in March from 54.4 in February. This is the highest increase since 1980. "
Expect this to be ignored or downplayed by mainstream media / government, but this has potential to be very concerning for upcoming years (good for gold and gold miners though)
A quick look at the charts (everything 1 hr to 1 wk) is saying sell... but absolute madness!
10% spread this morning. Some people are trying to do anything to get this to go down
Results at end of month. If we don't rise into that, we must rise during April with both divi announcement and Q1 update, both of which will be brilliant
Most IIs are shorting gold, even some who have conviction on the long gold narrative (see some Kitco news guests and its clear). As such, gold miners are a bit tainted
However, I consider it madness to consider selling any. This is time to start building the holding (if not already). General consensus seems to be that H2 will see uptick in gold. There will be a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines. The fundamentals across the big gold miners are really good, is just a matter of time
Poly is my main gold miner (mostly cause they are also big in silver and looking into copper), cey next and then a few other plays for hedge... each to our own, but the sector will likely rebound together
Some good discussion on here.
The passing on of inheritance via pension to pension as means of skipping tax was new to me. An interesting one
Am surprised that none of the ESG type plays were mentioned. Renewable energy is massive post Covid, SPs generally highly stable besides an occasional raise (which is best time to buy) and dividends usually 5-7% depending upon the play. Capital growth typically close to zero, but that's a byproduct of stability being offered.
For example there are a couple of battery storage funds which is about as safe as possible (unlike wind and solar that can have lower output periods due to weather). Not giving specific names here, but found it interesting as I'm not really aware of much being safer
Other thing to be conscious of is time. e.g. you mentioned LLOY as an example. Given recent rise with divis resuming, there is probably limited growth in the near term, and divi is still weak to make decent return. However, over a 5+ year horizon, it will probably improve a lot and perform well (especially if interest rates need to rise a little to counter future inflation).
Essentially, set a goal (e.g. 5% or something easily attainable) and a timeliness for what you're happy committing to. Without that basic foundation, how will you ever know if you made right choices?
ftDOTcom/content/e8d6b6e6-1f19-473e-a1c5-fbe077615e0f
Hi Ade, apologies for not replying earlier - just seeing your question now. Where do I see this within next couple of months? Difficult to say really. Worst case is drop to around 1200. That'd be massive support from pre-covid times combined with several other technical stuff. Should it reach that? No. Equally, I don't really think about it cause I'm not holding this for just a couple of months. Thinking about things like this is what leads to bad decisions, such as selling at a loss right before that unknowable lowest point gets reached (done that a few times too!).
Some other great posts on the weekend also
All-in-all, this is a good board. Boards are almost always bias, but are usually unrealistic in their bias. Here, it's generally accepted that we're in a downward trend, but there's good discussion about broader factors and risks at play. I like that - thanks to the other posters on here
Unsure about others, but I'm noticing quite a significant change of narrative in media these days. Reuters, FT, Bloomberg etc all beginning to talk about inflation rising just around the corner (before end of this year). We've seen almost every other inflationary asset increase in value these past 3-6 months, there's definitely uncertainty beginning to creep into the market.
In Jan 2020 I shorted DAX, DOW & FTSE after hearing that 700million Chinese people were locked down with the virus. I figured that could only be bad news for global economy. Markets continued to go up and I ended up closing my shorts at a 5 figure loss on 18th Feb. We all know what started on Thurs 20th Feb... The writing was on the all for all to see, but the markets refused to react.
Not to mention the context of rising gold pre-covid, the amount of stimulus and government debt is so obviously inflationary, it's again just a matter of time... This time, I'm going to stick with my gutt
PS: Good to see you on here also Dartron. CAML's definitely my choice as most under-rated stock
Let's see Dartron
Remain keen on 3GBP in run up to going ex-divi. Equally, I had my sights there back when this was $3.5-3.6s, so will be massively disappointed to not see that now with copper at 4+. If this were listed in US or Canada, it'd easily be over a fiver already
Interesting tick-up in SP of late. Looks like we used the 50 day MA as a support, which may potentially mean that we're starting a new uptrend? Nice close at 170, just above most recent high is also positive. Perhaps some enthusiasm about reopening of economy and budget supporting new buyers etc helping here? 180p next stop, following which we've got to close the gap back up to 200p. Would be nice to see some positive movement here
Gotta say, quite surprised that there hasn't been an increase in the coalculus coin price on the back of this news - it remains flat.
Either the Indonesians, Koreans & Singapore don't really care about the GST announcement, they don't even know about it, or they think it's so far off it's not worth considering yet.
Maybe if COAL could get listed on a decent exchange (uniswap or something) then traction would mount. As our fates are linked, traction in COAL would be good for GST also
Just had POLY come at at 1740 on HL post close... ah well, there's a wishing!
@Ade, Yeh, I learned that lesson investing in oil stocks pre-15 crash. When commodity prices were stable-ish, it was actually easy to find 50+% plays. Just read all of the production RNSs where AIM stocks had increased production by 25-100% with new wells coming online, buy them, and then a few months later when the financial statements came out the stock prices jumped... I remember buying one stock that increased production by 400% in a single quarter. Thought I'd hit the jack pot. However, the oil crash came and then the SP crash over 80%. Lesson learnt!
But you're absolutely right, makes no sense why these giant companies swing so much on a daily basis due to minor changes in commodity price. Especially when a lot of them have prices hedged and are actually either stable or only offering upside potential. But that's the market. Guess it's the side effect of many things being algo plays these days
Anyway, all the best.
LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) – Britain's competition watchdog wants a new independent banking industry body to accelerate take-up of "open banking" apps to spawn new fintech companies and offer more choice to consumers.
Open banking allows third-party internet based applications to compete with big banks by accessing a customer's accounts to make payments, or find better deals on loans and other services and products.
The Competition and Markets Authority on Friday launched a public consultation until the end of March on strengthening how the financial sector operates open banking and ensures sufficient competition.
Open banking has made a "good start" with hundreds of apps now available and around 450 firms in the pipeline, the CMA said.
"While the largest banks have shown signs of embracing open banking, they may also have an incentive to slow the further development of the open banking ecosystem, where this conflicts with their own commercial objectives," the CMA said.
HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays continue to dominate high street banking, and the CMA wants the new industry body to push forward open banking.
It would replace the Open Banking Implementation Entity or OBIE, an interim body funded by big banks and led by a trustee Imran Gulamhuseinwala.
"Open banking has been critical to supporting the UK's emerging and growing fintech industry," Gulamhuseinwala said.
UK Finance, which represents Britain's banks, has put forward a blueprint for a not-for-profit company, but the CMA said there was a risk of big banks having an "inappropriate" influence over the new body's chair.
An "independent and vigorous" chair was needed to oversee a period of growth and not "quiet consolidation", the CMA said.
There are over three million users of open banking apps in Britain, with new users being added at the rate of a million every six months. Usage is expected to increase further as the government uses it to collect tax from companies.
Many of the apps are provided by fintechs, a critical growth sector for the government as it seeks to bolster the City of London's global attraction after being cut off from the European Union by Brexit.
Morning Dartron, your right about my high. Should of been open on Mon11th (I note that you've used close on Fri 8th... similar). Re: the low, think we need to extend the wedge, as otherwise we might have just broken your support suggesting further downward movement, hence why I went back to Dec
I have different accounts for different purposes. Annoyingly, there is one which I'll need to liquidate late May early June which is holding 4k CAML. Its not the end of the game as I've CAML in my other 2 accounts also, but this should be faaar north of where it is. Beginning to get frustrated as the time horizon starts to loom