Member Info for JTS13

Think much of this has to be taken into wider perspective. All in all, it's likely a good thing for most of us on here for metals to settle a bit in order to remove some of the inflationary pressures that will otherwise inevitably filter through into our daily lives.
Equally, what does 'weaken' mean? Looking at the charts, I'd say good chance for copper to break the 6 month support line and 50 week MA resistance at ~$3.95. Frankly, there's a gap down to $3.5 (Jan support levels) combined with monthly 20 MA support. Pretty fair gamble before year end I'd say.
Is a ~15% drop weak?
Remember, Jan support levels still had CAML trading in the 210-278p range. And this 'weakness' would still be equivalent to highs not seen since 2013!
It's understandable that SP would forward trade in towards the lower band of that range, giving a comparatively bearish sentiment compared to the beginning of the year when metal prices were rising. But jeez, CAML should be soaring with anything over $3 - and same for the other metals in our portfolio.

Understand the challenges Dartron. I'd sold off most of my portfolio pre-Covid crash as saw that crash as inevitable, but didn't sell CAML because I figured it was already undervalued back then. Did manage to bring average down to around the 160p region, so on a reasonable profit to be fair. But not reasonable when compared to performances elsewhere for sticks considerably less better managed etc

This was doing pretty nicely through into Jan 21 and then went into consolidation. That was fairly foreseeable. Of course the dam incident created uncertainty, although I think we've faired extremely well considering. JPM getting in was a big turnoff for me - almost considered selling the lot then. Wish I had! Have crashed 30% since

I'm with you that CAML looks like a great play. I've got holdings from 3 different accounts in here. For the long term stuff, I don't care too much to be honest and have actually added a few grand. This'll go up eventually... But I've around 10k in another account which has to be liquidated soon and it peeves me off that this is so low. The dividend is of course welcome, but I'd really like to see the announcement of being debt free shouted out from the tree tops and IIs to start getting the message that CAML is a well run business with sound fundamentals, a superb brilliant divi and good op' for capital growth (within a market that is increasingly realising that there aren't many capital growth plays out there)

Interesting point LythamSlim... 1 hump or 2? I'm not much of a Camel expert so couldn't say to be honest

Ah, just opting for a bit of random humour rather than a direct vent. Update coming next week though, so hopefully some positive impetus

Absolutely OilHead. Copper is up 3.5% today alone and broken above the 20 week SMA reaffirming a bull move, whereas CAML trots South having broken the 50 week SMA downwards. Bearish move!

Maybe the Camel trade is something for us to genuinely look into. After all, markets seem to like stocks with questionable fundamentals and obscure business models. Surely we could wrap it around some narrative of sustainable transport, linked to the Asian Silk Road movement (quote some big economic numbers) and get a few snapshots in of worker diversity. Then bam, CAML SP could light up

Ach, who knows these days. Watching markets these days is like watching Yes Minister from before. A classic if ever there was one!

One may be easily persuaded to believe that CAML is not in fact a copper miner. We don't have anything to do with zinc or that either. Nope, none at all... I mean, if we did, the share price would have at least resembled something akin to the changes in commodity prices. No?

So therefore, I suggest to you all that the claim of CAML being a copper miner is a load of rubbish

Clearly, the truth of the matter is that CAML is involved in the Camel trade. Its inferred in the name and we aren't that far from that part of the world... would explain the poor SP performance after mining related commodities all booming around 100%. We've all been looking at the wrong commodity!!

And so it all begins to make sense

(NOTE: Clearly written in jest before someone reads that literally, takes offense and gets it removed)

The H1 Operations Update a few months back indicated closures had resulted in reduced production by just under 10%. However, we are hoping that production since has stabilised and that they can confirm FY targets.

The other thing to note from the H1 Update is the below quote:

"During the period, we have seen strong metal prices and therefore look forward to releasing our H1 2021 financial results on 15 September 2021, when we will also announce our interim dividend."

STRONG METAL PRICES. I also think that they are looking forward to announcing the dividend (maybe even debt free by time of publishing)

Caml mgt is top class. If only share price could even modestly represent what we have here

MOSCOW, Sept 3 (Reuters) – Russia's finance ministry said on Friday it would buy 14.9 billion roubles ($204.8 million) worth of foreign currency a day between Sept. 7 and Oct. 6, an increase in the amount of daily operations from the previous month.

The finance ministry said its regular FX and gold purchases on the market will total 327.1 billion roubles ($4.50 billion)over the month. A Reuters poll of analysts predicted that FX buying would total 303 billion roubles. ...

In the previous period, Aug. 6 and Sept. 6, the ministry had planned to buy the equivalent of 315.9 billion roubles, or 14.4 billion roubles a day. ...

A recovery in prices for oil, Russia's key export, has enabled Russia to return to foreign currency purchases this year.

In 2020, Russia was selling FX, which helped to limit losses in the rouble amid a slump in oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical risks.

Timing was unfortunate

Gold dropped around 30$s overnight, probs on news that South Korea has increased base rate on interest from 0.25 to 0.75. So that'll spark wider market concerns of other central banks to follow, and the several funds will (apparently) shift away from bullion as it doesn't carry reward for holding

The latter part is the narrative, of which I wonder how much is really applicable in today's environment. But definitely gold dripped and we dropped on that

Market is controlled by the traders and bots. Fundamentals mean quite little these days, evident by the number of great miners on FTSE that have bearly moved, even though commodities have boomed and overseas miners are often up 100-150% in the same time

Sucks to be in British markets some times

Acceptable, but expecting more. This time last year there was greater uncertainty around covid and BoDs needed to keep reserves in the war chest. PoG also fairly stable near historic highs (comparatively speaking) should also give more reassurance to the BoD. Furthermore, Nezhda mine is coming near completion, so costs should now be locked. That'll be big thing cause contractor prices have gone through the roof since covid

Basically, production should be rising again, prices and profits remain high, and costs should be comparatively stable... recipe for a healthy dividend I recon

You almost have the admire the tenacity of CAMLs share price.

Copper is up around 60% from pre-Covid prices having undergone one of the most bullish runs in history.
CAMLs SP however hasn't even been able to sustain a 5% increase.

Production down slightly and an incident last year for sure. But profits are through the roof.
The technicals here suggest a pending drop to 205-210p range. Essentially, the market acts like we still sell copper at 2.6$ rather than >4

If a bull market can't raise CAML, it really raises the question as to what can

A no brained for me... topped up

Thought I had taken my full last summer, but company has progressed a lot with very minimal recognition from the market.

Reporting on Bushveld Energy separately is also a very positive development in my eyes. Its why many of us are here. The story needs its own focused narrative. Whether that is through reporting or through a future spinoff, who knows

Thanks for reply folks

Re: John, I quote below from the RNS:

"In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 3 June 2021, Ganfeng must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer"

So one would assume price to match the first offer amount in expectation / advance of this date. ie about 4 weeks

Not significantly surprised by the takeover. This has always been cheap if potential was realised - and obviously Ganfeng were helping with the equipment planning as part of their internal thinking on whether or not this'd be worth buying outright. The math is done, the bash is in the bank and the supply chain has been identified... It's an obvious grab whilst it's cheap

Like some on here, I mostly bought for my little one. She's up 200% so won't complain... did end up putting in a little for myself and also up 100%... The bid is a low ball compared to potential long term value here, but I won't complain about the gains

What I don't get is the current share price... is there something in the terms that we're missing? SP is trading at 15% discount to an offer price that's got about 4 weeks to close. Why hasn't this jumped to 67? It's not uncommon for SP to rise fractionally OVER the first offer price on the hopes that a higher offer comes in. What're we missing? Bullish if we accept offer. Bullish if we dismiss it and ask for more. If 15% in the month were guaranteed so easily, I'd happily chuck 50 grand in here but it doesn't make sense

Thoughts?

Copper just cleared next resistance level and heading for ATH at 4.6495$. Likely see some resistance there, but this is strong move

Market still seems oblivious to the fact that CAML produces copper and pays out awesome divis. We still need a 20% SP increase just to get back to ATH of when copper was only at 3.2$!

The fact that we have since paid off almost all debts and copper is up a whopping 50%, you'd think some investors in the City would start to recognise that CAML is literally better than printing gold.

Sometimes genuinely feel annoyed that I bought CAML over copper directly. Amazingly the commodity has outperformed the miner

Evening Svend, yeh, silver looks to be breaking out of ascending wedge. Bullish move, but I can see sellers bring it back into the wedge...or at least trying to

POLY got its first attack on the declining 4hr chart as requested yesterday. Although bounced back from that harder than hoped for. Dollar doing well this afternoon didnt help

In transparency, my cash is already invested here and elsewhere. These moves bear zero impact over when I will sell (dictated by other personal things, like going through a remortgage or something). Still, is interesting to have a go at forecasting then watch these things play out. Can't win any or lose any without some chips in the game (mine are invested as said, not trading) but a good still to try develop none the less.

Quick follow up on earlier message just to say that the MA 20 weekly has now been crossed on gold. That was hurdle during past couple of weeks and today has crossed it very bullishly

Daily MA has become support for gold. Expect MA50 daily to be support here for POLY as per earlier post. Unless things turn overnight, want to see this attack 1570 tomorrow before consolidating / continuing the uptrend

I'm still here hoping for 20 quid plus in the mid term, so not overly concerned by these short term fluctuations. However, it'd definitely be nice to be back in uptrend and have the reassurance that buying this was for the correct reasons

Hi Svend, Re: comments from Friday, I don't think either of those points have any short term (within 3 months) pact on gold price. National import levels are typically done on monthly or quarterly level, so we are talking autumn before the answer to "has Chinese demand offset India shortfall?" question gets answered.
Similarly, the multi trillion dollar question (literally) is obviously inflationary, but again, not immediate. Especially whilst focus remains on the yield curve... we are seeing more analysts return to comment favourably about gold prices before the end of this year, but I don't see how that shapes short term sentiment

Honestly, I think around now is great time to buy for anyone who thinks inflation will rise. I make sure to talk to a range of Profs in financial math / economics now and again - just to see how my thoughts compare with comparative experts. Gold is definitely getting more popular... on the assumption its for a multi year hold, and nothing under 6 months

Unsure. The MA50 daily is around same level as 61% fib retracement, with the Ma100 (weekly) and 76% retracement level shortly below... these have potential to offer good supports

Things is, the gold narrative has been slapped in the face by spread of Covid in India which has put prices on discount and stopped many jewellers buying whilst retail demand waves... even though we see Chinese, Singapore + HK demand picking up, we need India...

And whilst there is a question mark in gold, POLY gets seems to double down on any negative sentiment

Long term (6 month minimum) remains positive. But problem is that there are few long term investors these days

Sorry to read that some people have bailed of late. Can understand the frustration and desire to grab something on the recent rise after the prolonged and dismal performance of late.
Personally, think that we're near the turn of the tide. POLY's fundamentals are sound. The technicals have returned to a positive uptrend with us now using 1500 for support (i assume for now...still a little weak). It's still dragging behind gold, but gold is performing well which is encouraging. It's resetting all major supports with the declining 20 week MA at 1795 as final hurdle to crack before resuming uptrend. News such as Goldmans forecast for gold back at 2000 within 6 months don't hurt either!

We're not out of the woods yet. Likely high volatility remaining whilst final hurdles are cracked... equally, it's one of those things where gold is a hedge against inflation n all that. Can't remember who said it, but point is that we should be praying to God that gold doesn't explode. Cause if it does, it means everything else in your portfolio has probably gone to 'rubbish'

Worth taking note of recent linkedin post where eSmarts have stated that they're also recruiting with projects in Solar Connections & Battery Storage. This business is fast growing! If the rise of IES is anything to go by, the market is desperate for ESG picks in the green energy (AKA: Greta Gold) space. NEXS remains poorly communicated, but these could all be signs of a giant preparing for birth...?