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My point @Dartron is that charts gave a clear sell signal pre-close on 8th Jan. They gapped up on following open for predictable bull trap and then started the consolidation process. That was the time to sell / short.
240 was just above a floor resistance that took a full week to break - which arguably looked likely to hold until after Thurs 21st (ie. a week after opening the short).
Open short on 8th at 270, or open short on open of Fri 22nd at 235 I could have understood... Maybe Sling has a different approach to charting, or perhaps i like plays that offer more certainty
Re: macro. Unless copper drops 30% overnight, CAML is in better position that it was a year ago. We may have a bumpy ride the next few weeks, but don't see anyone expecting 30% drop in copper to happen... but that's what CAML SP has already priced in.
Tbh... my thoughts were final top slicing on approach from 300 - 350p. However, will happily take 10% dividend if that's the alternative. Wont complain either way
Wise move... note that opening spreads can be as much as 5% so still chance of being taken out on the open.
220 remains likely (per my initial post to your short) though see that macro factors have played into your favour. ie. lockdowns in Shanghai dampening China growth story upon which copper relies. Chart now beginning to suggest a possible push down to 20 week MA, which is coincidentally also around a very significant historical floor.
Personally, I acknowledge that you may get your 210p play, but I view your short from 240p as unnecessarily risky. Why didn't you short crypto which was yelling out a technical drop? 20% easy money with as close to a guarantee as possible within same time frame as this, which remains comparatively risky and far smaller gain. Or some other more obvious short? (PS: correction was obvious, yes, but shorting?)
For me, CAML remains a no brainer long play. Potential 30p short is peanuts here compared to both my current gain and anticipated long gain.
Genuinely, interested to see your logic. I just don't get it
Looks like we're heading to back to ~220p. Definitely wouldn't short this though from 240. Why? (A) spreads are massive, (B) downtrend is result of consolidation, not fundamentals, so v short term, and (C) CAML SP is below where it was before the massive rise in copper prices. There is literally zero of this improvement priced in and direction is obvious to anyone looking beyond a weeks horizon. All you need is another Biden announcement on stimulus to rattle up copper prices another 1-2% and this could flip 10% in the other direction... More sensible play would be to watch the drop and buy on the dip. Safer and much larger profit to be made
Reading online that we may be caught in wider sell-off of miners and O&G right now.
Covid cases rising in China. E.g. I had a call 2 days back with client in Shanghai mentioning 420+ cases in his area of Shanghai that day alone. Apparently there is talk of a new lockdown.
Hopefully that doesn't happen as China is key to commodities narrative. Even if there is a further lockdown, don't expect it do drag on like we have in West. However, there could be violent volatility within commodity priced and thus us
I'm staying in personally for now, but watching this space (feel a dafty for not joining the dots earlier though)
Also worth noting that the shares sold could also be interpreted as just selling off share options / dividend income (assuming reinvested) that have accrued in the past few years.
Anyone holding here since IPO would have over doubled their holding
Sell off has been more than initially anticipated. However, so long as we don't break 236, then we're still in positive uptrend
Silver lining: dividends via HL got reinvested today. So we're picking up 10% more than we would of just 2 days ago. Can't complain with that
It's all just a waiting game here. The drop on 14th Sep took around 6 weeks to recover. That was much more serious. This'll be back and up again v soon. No need for folks to micro watch this one
Indeed, v promising update. Better than I'd hoped for
Re: drop, multiple reasons. E.g. copper dropped almost 3% since Friday close, so makes sense for us to see slight drop. Our technicals have been indicating need for a consolidation for a wee while, so this is excuse for that to happen before the next leg up. Leg up? Yes, thats right. Per historical charts we were touching the ceiling before the next lift to >280p. Anyway, point is, lots of reasons for a few days consolidation.
I'm still hoping for 350p by dividend. Quite achievable. With Biden already talking about further stimulus (and he isn't even in office yet) can see this going quite a ways yet
Firstly, happy new year! Trust that you've managed to enjoy some time with loved ones over the festive season
Yes, noted that Trading 212 may have it's benefits. I suppose for small trading amounts it's better. However, if you start investing with sums of 1,000 pounds or more I'd suggest staying away from platforms like that. They market themselves as being free from commission fees, however they kill you with their spreads. For example, their spread for UKW is ~1.5%, almost 10X more that other brokers. Unsure about 212's other fees, but many such trading platforms ALSO charge a holding fee, meaning that whilst you save on commission, you could be spending several times more in reality.
Anyway, all the best with your investing
@Daniel29, from your posts, it sounds like you have 600pounds worth invested via 3 purchases. Are you fairly new to investing? Suggest that you check commission rates with your broker. e.g. HL.co.uk charge 12.95 per purchase or sale. Thatd make over 50 quid for you, meaning you'll need to be here over a full year just to cover the cost of your investment...
Perhaps my observation is wrong, but thought I'd raise the point just in case
Full report: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7480/CBP-7480.pdf
Highlights:
Spending review 2020
In the November 2020 Spending Review, the Government announced
that it would “invest £1.9 billion in charging infrastructure and
consumer incentives”, including:
• £950 million to support the rollout of rapid electric vehicle (EV)
charging hubs at every service station on England’s motorways
and major A-roads;
• £582 million for the Plug-in Car, Van, Taxi, and Motorcycle
Grant until 2022-23;
• £275 million to extend support for charge point installation at
homes, workplaces and on-street locations;
• £90 million to fund local EV charging infrastructure to support
the roll out of
The report’s key findings were:
• The number of rapid chargers located near the major roads
network needs to expand from 460 in 2016 to 1,170 by 2030.
• The number of public chargers needed for ‘top-up charging’
needs to rise from 2,700 in 2016 to over 27,000 by 2030.
• Overall nearly 29,000 charging points are needed across Great
Britain by 2030, of which around 85% of these are fast (22kW) or
rapid (43+kW) chargers.
This analysis does not include the number of private chargepoints on EV
owners’ homes. The Government envisages the majority of charging to
take place at home.61 Indeed, the Government identifies homecharging
as a “key attraction” of owning an EV. (TBH - I expect this to be an understatement)
eSmart Network clients will also be eligible for the 500 million pound grants for installing rapid charging stations
Rather frustrated...
In Aug/Sep, I photoed each EV Charging Station that I drove by and searched online to find the companies in the hope that one of them would be listed. Whilst I did not find it clear from any of NEXS's RNS's or websites, I've just come to realise that eSmart Networks is actually responsible for the infrastructure for the majority of them. They have a Linkedin post (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/esmart-networks_rapid-icp-experts-activity-6687272815579729920-B8wE) taking credit for 20x Engenie installations in 20 days. eSmart Networks also services Engie and Ionity also... Engenie (rebranded as Osprey) are aiming to install 2000 charging points by 2024 alone.
Combined with the fact that new houses now are increasingly required to have EV charging points (part of triconnex biz) and recognising that NEXS has 32 million in the bank, I decided to start buying in today. Why frustrated? Because I was wanting to buy here in Aug at ~120p but couldn't convince myself due to the terrible communications of management. Once mgt pull their finger out and tell the market what they actually have here, this SP should rise 'rapidly'
Nice to see some movement and commentary here. I posted in frustration back in early September on how I couldn't understand this being completely overlooked. It's gottae have the best exposure to EV Charging Stations on the market... Was really torn at the time but didn't buy because volume was sooo low. Shame, it's actually risen well since then. G'luck to those in here
I remember looking into this a few months back. As far as I recall, GRID show which companies they contract, but not specific model types. Past presentations have not specified.
Equally, I don't think it would make a significant difference to GRID. If interested in VFRBs, suggest looking at either a manufacturer (like Invinity) or electrolyte provider (like BMN). Their SPs would be more prone to growth should vfrbs take off, whereas grid will probably max out around 130 regardless of what tech is used
Claret: a few things to consider (a) how soon may you need the money (b) what was your buy in price.
E.g. I don't need this money until I retire in 20 years and I'm still in profit even after the drop. So my perspective may be very different from someone who needs this money within 12 months to buy a new car.
Personally though, this is a clear buy for me. The 200 MA (4HR) turns out to be the floor (so I was a little off with the 50 day MA thought), but it has bounced well so far indicating a strong support. 20+% drop for a routine stock sale is absurd. They shouldn't even of RNSd it in my opinion. More likely they just needed a temp drop to reach a pre-agreed sale price, and I suspect simultaneously help out some shorters who were getting burned
Topped up at 73p. Very happy
Sale of shares complete...LOL! JPM doing what they do best, ie manipulate share price! There was no need for this RNS
SP dropped to 50 day MA which means uptrend is intact. Safe buying / topping up opportunity. I know I will be cause had wanted to before this recent rise anyway
Its not a Placing as in a raise @ Canary. Its a share sale by an institional investor
I'm a little confused by the RNS to be honest. Definitely suggests possibility of some downward pressure until the sale is done. No price is mentioned. Obviously the seller has a base price, which means we are above it and they'll accept some discount to current SP. Given that we are at record highs, we have no way of knowing what our sellers target could be
Wonder what JP Morgans goal in this is. Giving public RNS makes this sound rushed to me. Why not take time and do it normal process? Depressed seller? Seller v high margin so don't care about a 10%+ drop? JP Morgan not confident can find buyers so need to RNS it? Holder doesn't like the Nigeria news and wants out fast? or maybe they already have a buyer, but the buyer wants at a discount thats is acceptable to the seller but fairly below current SP and only way to get SP there is to find a way of depressing the price?.. Who knows
I expect downward pressure in short term though. Tbh, consolidation near 80p could do the long term share price good. 50% rises in 6 weeks are rarely sustainable
Absolutely recognise the frustration for LTHs. Whilst I've always held some CAML since ~2014, it's been more of a cyclical trade pre-divi for me. I also went almost entirely into cash late Jan' when Covid emerged so have been fortunate to average down here around 160.
But despite being in profit, it's still incredible looking at CAML that it's still at the same price as it was this time last year. What's changed? Well, debt is down. Commodity prices & profitability is up significantly. But CAML hasn't budged....we were complaining at the price and low FPE 12 months ago. How much more so now!
It's a slow mover, but without copper dropping substantially, I am hoping for 3 pounds pre-next divi
Copper proce has absolutely exploded. Now at levels not seen since 2013 (almost 3.5$). With Orion looking like they've now sold out, caml has got to start moving.
I recognise that LOM is limitation here that will keep out many institutions. But why on earth this isn't breaking 3 pounds soon is beyond me
Thats 5% sold in under 2 weeks and SP went up during that time. Exceptional!
Shame that we are not expecting any positive news any time soon, but now, with copper breaking through multi-year highs and our big seller gone, this has potential to really move