London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Started: maverick2471, 14 Jun 2024 12:17
Last post: PaulFG, 15 Jun 2024 17:31
Very interesting day on Friday. Clear effort to push shareholders into accelerated selling. As many have already pointed out it was near impossible however to buy on the dip and to pick up any size you literally had to be part of the move to push the spread upwards.
Will be interesting to see if this tactic is executed again in June or if events on the ground overtake and we convincingly push through the 6p.
Did I top up sub 5p? No, but I did buy 20k shares at 5p. That's all those snakes mm's would let me buy...
If you sold today and contributed to the drop - I thank you from the bottom of my heart.
Korriban
just seems to typical market we are in lazy MMs not letting the share go up as it should have done already. then let is go up a small amount and then push it down futher.... rinsing the punters basically
same thing on KOD of late as well :(
not selling or buying come on BRES true market value please
Have to say I did take advantage of the dip and topped up
People need to learn how to read an rns properly & understand how MM's play their games. People sold & this was 12% down when I work up (late might I add at midday or round about) now it's only 6% down. No doubt these people sold for a loss & will repeat this elsewhere or buy back in here at a higher SP than they had before. I've held it's been up above 6p down to 4.5p & back to attacking 6p this is what markets do.
Started: BillB, 10 Jun 2024 07:07
Last post: PaulFG, 14 Jun 2024 11:38
Interesting reactions and views on the update. Clearly, the bears have it today.
Will be interested to to see if we settle below 5p.
I must admit the underlying tone was not quite as positive as more recent RNS'.
The market reaction for me is a realisation that Bres need to raise a further c$7m to be able to complete the DFS over the next 6 months. $2.5m was supposed to come from a SI but that has seemingly gone a bit quiet. Even if this is forthcoming it still leaves a gap of $4.5m so where is this coming from and at what price.
Mike has not really put a foot wrong to date but this update did feel a bit thin on the ground re. financing; especially given the 6m or so timelines to complete the DFS.
I think most of us have been burnt along the way with untrustworthy directors of small cap companies (particularly on AIM), BRES being on the main list obviously has to jump through a few more hoops with the regulator and the DFC involvement would surely add another complication. I am a little disappointed that Mike and Co haven't got this over the line by now, but at the moment based on their track record i'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
In the world we live in at present nothing is simple and nothing happens quickly, If Mike hadn't put a self imposed expectation timeline on the prospectus none of us would be concerned with a delay as we are still getting good news updates coming from the company.
My experience with micro caps tells me don't trust anything they say but my experience with Bres and mike has been nothing reassuring and exemplary for a micro cap....
Sub 5p maybe.....one can dream.
STM - lots of other stuff in the report has also been RNS'd in the past, so that's not really any good reason. Financing is one of the key aspects of these reports, and normally, if they have sorted out strategic investment, it's one of the things to advertise and 'boast' about in the report i.e bang the drum. Just like he has done by referencing the DFC. If you don't follow Bres, then you are left thinking it is running out of cash on reading this report, so its and own goal from that pov as well. Can't complain about a subdued market if your own reports can't even get across your financial position. All imo
Started: Grenade, 14 Jun 2024 08:32
Last post: Olderandwiser, 14 Jun 2024 09:28
Come on, PaulFG. 4 months and counting?
Really?
Bres is as uncomplicated a corporate entity as you could hope for. And the LSE isn't exactly working overtime, inundated with IPOs.
Why is it that shareholders are never encouraged to raise any negative on these BBs without facing a barrage of indignation, or worse?
Get a grip
Frankly, I've never known a company to complete the prospectus within investors' desired timeline.
Causing suspicion & doubt? Really?
hmm...
I've never known something like this take so long, causing suspicion and doubt. It should be a priority to get sorted, no money, no company and certainly no dfs. Its been 4 months, absolute joke.
Started: Computer909, 11 Jun 2024 12:15
Last post: Olderandwiser, 11 Jun 2024 13:35
They kept their 1mn exposure through their warrant holding, I suppose was their thinking.
Pretty out of date if they are talking about nickel as well
Bought at 5p and sold at 5.26p? Why?
From Jangada’s results RNS this morning
‘Blencowe holds a portfolio of key battery metals projects located in northern Uganda, see blencoweresourcesplc.com. Following a period of due diligence, the directors assessed that the Blencowe assets were being substantially undervalued by the market and we considered the investment to be a short to medium-term value accretive opportunity with exposure to both the graphite and nickel sulphide markets and consistent with Jangada's strategy of being involved in the development of "battery metals".
During the year, the Company
· purchased 2,000,000 shares in Blencowe at £0.05 per share and received 1,000,000 warrants with an exercise price of £0.08 per share and expiry date of 23 May 2026; and
· sold 1,000,000 shares in Blencowe at £0.0526 per share.
At the end of the reporting year, the Company held 21,050,000 shares being a 10.05% interest in Blencowe's share capital
Started: maverick2471, 11 Jun 2024 13:21
Last post: maverick2471, 11 Jun 2024 13:21
Started: Spank.theMonkey, 2 Apr 2024 10:48
Last post: Spank.theMonkey, 11 Jun 2024 11:39
Reserved,
That’s a very useful comparison, thanks for posting.
What I was struck with on the recent interview with MR was the complete and utter change of direction from being your a graphite concentrate producer to processing downstream SPG. Previously he had suggested that being a producer of concentrate would yield very good returns for the company, and clearly this is reflected by the PFS. However, MR was clearly excited about the prospect of doing something different and addressing an area in which almost no western firms operate. For those that weren’t on the call, he mentioned that producing graphite concentrate isn’t the issue, its downstream SPG processing and refining the concentrate into something that can be used within EV batteries that is causing the west a major head ache. As such, this is an area that BRES need to get involved in.
Clearly, BRES don’t have the knowledge and experience of being able to execute downstream SPG without a joint venture, again, referenced on the call. However, he seemed to think that processing downstream SPG would be a game changer for BRES, which for me is very exciting because the NPV is huge at present (under PFS), so area I am keen to find out more on.
A final point is that the all in cost of producing graphite concentrate is likely to drop from around $500 per tonne to just over $400 per tonne. This again is likely to have a material impact on the already impressive NPV and return profile of the project. So even if BRES start with a 5k tonne per annum plant (lets say for the first year), then this would still yield a huge return (given the current market cap.
Say cost per tonne to BRES: $400
Selling price per tonne: $1,100
Net return per tonne: $700
Net return x5k tonnes: $3.5m
BRES Market Cap: $15m
Return % vs Market Cap: 23.3%
Pauliewonder
With reference to your informative list of "short term factors", I note below some data from studies produced for Greenroc:
PEA for the mine reported an after-tax NPV8 of US$179M with IRR of 26.7%.
The feasibility study for an anode plant reported an after-tax NPV8 of US$545M with IRR of 25.3%.
This demonstrates the potential for a multiple of 3x for downstream processing.
Some good points there Paulie. Let's see what happens. I'm certainly not ruling out a re-rate before the DFS, but not expecting it until afterwards. Bres has always been a bit of a slow burner but we can be agreed that it's time will surely come. GLA
There are a number of short term factors that will cause a re rate:
1. Off take agreements - yes not binding until DFS is completed (as we all knew) but it can hugely de risk the project - and by the way they can potential forward sell to secure finance. To suggest that this will not impact the share price is missing the point in my view. If they were to land say POSCO, then not only does it validate the product, but it secures an indicated route to commercialisation and opens up possible financing. This is as close as two weeks away from the first non binding agreement.
I tell you what legal, at the BRES £1 share price party (which we absolutely should celebrate if it ever gets there), If we get an a non bonding off take agreement with POSCO and we don’t bag that day, I will buy your drinks all night. Vice versa too.
2. SPG - a game changer make no doubt. The PFS showed $492 NPV life of mine. This will be smashed with a downstream SPG facility (and I mean well and truly smashed) - news on this likely in short term.
3. Additional drilling - this is likely to increase life of mine, increase NPV and potentially expose other high quality results (outside Camp Lode). The DFC are encouraging this and will likely provide financing on this. Let’s face it, it they want US to have this resource otherwise they wouldn’t be involved. So it’s logical that they will look to encourage BREs to increase it
4. Graphite shortage - slipping into a supply deficit, will impact graphite prices
5. Funding - if they can outline how they will fund the mine, this will re rate the share price. The market is still worried about dilution. Wrongly so in this case because MR has said he will only raise through small and well timed placing a, not to retail as we are seeing with many AIM and small main listed firms at the moment
6. There are lots of other factors that can cause a re rate including further testing of results, completion of DFS, further financing agreed with the other DFC dept, securing, further strategic investment, updated broker notes, market cottons onto how under rated we are.
And by the way, MR didn’t say it was Q1 2025 for DFS completion for definite. What he said was Q4 2024 but there are some items that are out of his control that “may” slip into Q1 2025.
We have to remember that BRES doesn’t have a £100m market cap. We sit just over £10m, although Mike did say that at the point the DFS is completed (say eight months ish), he expects this to be worth £50-100m. That’s a x4 to x7bagger from here if it goes as MR suggests. So I’m not categorically saying you are wrong Legal, I just have a materially different outlook.
Started: maverick2471, 11 Jun 2024 10:38
Last post: maverick2471, 11 Jun 2024 10:38
Started: DANNYBAREY, 10 Jun 2024 15:19
Last post: DANNYBAREY, 10 Jun 2024 15:19
Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ytP-8yF2nks
Timestamp:24:10
Started: Y33ter, 10 Jun 2024 12:49
Last post: SmartPunter, 10 Jun 2024 13:28
EUA garbage up 100% then down 75% based on zero news. £5m trade value so far
Here an almost certain 10 bagger, £85k of trades..
Jangada up 15% on the news, BRES up 3... same old story as usual and for the life of me I can't understand why... must me missing something!
Started: Sunningdale1, 10 Jun 2024 08:10
Last post: Sunningdale1, 10 Jun 2024 08:10
A massive step forward for Blencowe with this Jilin offtake agreement...the first of many to be announced in the coming months. Mike Ralston discusses here:
https://youtu.be/ByzE3xJd9vI
Started: Spank.theMonkey, 10 Jun 2024 07:04
Last post: Spank.theMonkey, 10 Jun 2024 07:04
Blencowe is currently in advanced negotiations with multiple leading OEMs in China and South Korea regarding the sale of its remaining large flake products and smaller flake products utilised in batteries. These discussions have been positive and the Company anticipates delivering further MOUs with leading buyers of graphite products worldwide with the aim of securing offtake partners for the entire production output from Orom-Cross.
Started: CleverThoughts, 9 Jun 2024 23:45
Last post: CleverThoughts, 9 Jun 2024 23:46
If it doesn't open, try again in incognito. Usually doesn't ask for Dinero in incognito
https://www.ft.com/content/9117e5e6-baf9-4bdf-8080-9aa019ef1bfc
Started: Jugheadjim, 5 Jun 2024 09:00
Last post: Metalhead25, 8 Jun 2024 15:18
Fair point C909, don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting your comment is unreasonable, I just think he’s doing a really good job overall
“Running a company not a share price”
Agree in principle, but when the main source of needed cash is equity there is also a need to manage the Shareprice somewhat, don’t get me wrong I continue to be impressed with Mike’s management, but with the prospectus I do think he dropped the ball a little giving expectations that it would be done in February.
C909, sort of agree, but he’s running a company, not a share price. And his management of the company has been pretty spot on
It is all stacking up, but Mike is a little guilty of not maintaining momentum, the prospectus delay and not closing out the fund raise does now seem to be holding us back, no movement in Shareprice whatsoever this week and minimal volume, we need some confirmed news now to push on to double digits!
It's all stacking up in our favour! - just need to exercise some patience (note to self).
Started: Spank.theMonkey, 3 Jun 2024 07:10
Last post: PaulFG, 4 Jun 2024 23:52
I'm slightly confused as to why there's this sudden concern around the strategic investor - people bored?
Hopefully the strategic investor comes through, no reason to think otherwise. However, another point to consider here is that BRES are speaking with a number of Korean banks re: debt funding and hopefully that will be a partial funding solution (in addition to IIs and the DFC).
I’m expecting constant news flow from here on in. Strong buy for me.
Spank,
Thanks for your post that clears up that part of my question. I stand corrected on the increased number of shares and $ instead of £ value.
Let's hope there will be a definite and timely end to the uncertainty about the larger investment and prospectus.
He said the strategic investor is still committed in an interview on 9th May.
Did he mention the strategic investment his recent interviews? If so then no issue at all. If he did not, then maybe there is a problem but surely he would have to RNS it?
Started: Spank.theMonkey, 28 May 2024 09:49
Last post: Jugheadjim, 3 Jun 2024 10:59
Silane gas is the most common method to purify silicon, most of the gas is earmarked for the solar industry. Transition will be slow, ramping up production to meet EV demand is sometime off yet.
There are also a number of companies who are developing batteries with a graphite/silicone anode, OneD for example.
Links to videos and comment from the Executive Chairman Cameron Pearce -
"Blencowe recently recorded video interviews on the media platforms linked above to provide investors with further detail following a successful management trip to Asia. In China we visited Jilin Huiyang New Material Technology Company which is currently undertaking processing of a 600 tonne bulk sample of small flake graphite from Orom-Cross. This effort aims to produce commercial scale processed samples for a range of tier-1 offtakers in both China and South Korea, who have shown significant interest in high-quality processed product from Orom-Cross, especially smaller sized flakes suitable for SPG processing for the battery industry, including Electric Vehicles. Investors should note that prequalification of product with industry buyers is a crucial step for any serious graphite miner, and Blencowe is well advanced on this route.
In addition to the small flake graphite, we have received positive feedback on large flake graphite samples from Orom-Cross from other potential offtake parties, with larger flake graphite typically commanding premium prices.
During our trip, we also met with various EPC groups and Chinese strategics to advance our in-country downstream SPG processing strategy. We believe that adding local Ugandan downstream SPG processing facilities will enable us to capture more of the downstream value chain and significantly enhance Orom-Cross's already compelling economics. This will also substantially differentiate Blencowe from its graphite peers. So far, test work in China has been progressing positively, as have discussions regarding potential offtake MOUs and strategic partnerships for downstream SPG processing.
We anticipate further updating the market on the progress of our test work and the interest from potential offtakers in the coming weeks."
Started: LithBoy, 29 May 2024 08:31
Last post: LithBoy, 29 May 2024 11:59
Thanks Computer909, hopefully the DFS will include the whole business case for the life of the mine and then it is a case of financing one, then developing the second phase off of the income. The SPG processing plant looks a very interesting option. I did listen to the last two interviews with Mike and it makes a lot of sense. I'll listen to a few others as to string the whole picture together, cheers and good luck!
My understanding is the DFS will cover the whole business case for the mine, not only for the first phase but the total lifespan, there was originally talk the DFS would be split in two, the first covering the mine, the second covering the downstream SPG processing plant, now we expect the DFS will cover both.
It's worth listening to some of Mike's recent interviews in order to string together the upcoming deliverables and timeframe.
Can anyone shed any light on the question: "Will phase 2 of the mine, which will ramp the project to full production, be included in the coming Definite Feasibility Study or will it be just the first phase in there and phase 2 will be dealt with in an additional DFS?" Thanks, I'm just interested to know as I'm planning on being a long term holder here but can already see the potential of Orom-Cross.
Started: Pauliewonder, 24 May 2024 07:04
Last post: Mavern, 24 May 2024 13:31
Many mining exploration companies hope for just one off-take MOU, Blencowe confidently expect numerous, so we can be sure that those selected will be offering competitive terms. Add to this the near surface already proven quality graphite and the DFC project financing from the US and the downside risk seems negligible
Something else that inspires confidence is the 25% tariff the I.S will impose from 2026 on Chinese natural graphite imports...
BRES......flying in stealth mode for now.
Another great interview.
This guy just inspires confidence - he's clear, visionary and not afraid of signposting risks.
I was very interested to hear his thoughts on Chinese producers looking to shift production outside of China to circumvent the export restrictions.
Definitely backable.
Offtake MOUs potentially in the next 1-3 months, hopefully that piques some interest.
#BRES Video 🎥 CEO Mike Ralston outlines the progress at the Orom-Cross #Graphite project to @MiningOnline, with upcoming milestones to include offtake agreements, feasibility work, funding discussions & strengthening the concept of downstream production
https://t.co/BfSPOARr7G
Started: Catbert, 22 May 2024 09:09
Last post: Catbert, 22 May 2024 09:09
I'm not entirely convinced that it is beyond the wit of the USA to process graphite.
Given time and resource there is more than a decent chance that the USA can replicate what others are doing.
Started: PaulFG, 16 May 2024 15:06
Last post: Olderandwiser, 17 May 2024 13:42
I'm assuming that if/when BRES goes into a JV with a leading Chinese spg manufacturer at a location in Uganda not far from Orom Cross, that the Chinese outfit with their IP and access to finance, will be in the driving seat from a control point of view, leaving Bres as the offtake supplier. Just can't see Bres running the show, even if it is still around at that point in time.
In that case, what's the difference to the USA from a strategic pov of imposing extra tariffs on Chinese-made graphite flakes from China, or from them in Uganda?
Https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/us-hikes-tariffs-to-further-isolate-china-from-its-ev-supply-chain-ambitions
"Beginning in 2026 the US will apply a tariff of 25% on Chinese natural flake graphite imports, a move aimed at reining in China’s near-monopoly in the graphite used for making batteries for electric vehicles and shows that it intends to diversify anode supplies away from China. "
Last post: Legalwolf, 14 May 2024 21:03
Don't know if that large trade was a delayed buy or sell, but there has been some selling, which is to be expected as we are at the top of the trading range. But this does need some buyers to come in at these levels, otherwise it's back into the trading range.
Perhaps there'll be another 'strategic' investment closer to an offtake agreement ...
I was also expecting some selling from those 4p entries or people locked in below their buy in price not wanting to take a hit on exit price but we've not seen it here the only sell today looks to be the 5.77 £12k delayed trade. Looks like we've just ran out of buyers or else we'd have another leg up as not much stock available at all.
There's the problem though there's no buyers about unfortunately to take us out of this trend line
Expect 4p holders may well be taking some profits here - good that new longs are able to enter. I have to say I looked at this last night, the MCAP rather than the SP and decided to take a decent topup chunk today even if I had to pay above 6p, the potential is too great here and momentum will get this noticed if nothing else.
So BRES is one of the few stocks where I've actually averaged-up, even if it drops back I'll use it as another opp to topup - nearly into H2 2024.
Need it to hold though, as previously when it's got to this level, it's fallen back. But there has been talk of the persistent seller being finished? Let's see
Started: Y33ter, 10 May 2024 16:30
Last post: Pauliewonder, 13 May 2024 22:44
I would expect that these are simply balancing trades and nothing to get excited about. It happens on most stocks at some point.
Small tradesToday
Looking at the series of tiny trades at the start and end of the day, I can't help wondering if someone gave their lottery numbers to their stockbroker by mistake.
The Moliniiscul
Understood PFG.
What's with all these miniscule trades? See them quite often these days and they just have me wondering.
LW, yes I know, but I see DFS as a major derisking value adding event.
Started: Lincolnshire, 12 May 2024 16:58
Last post: Pauliewonder, 12 May 2024 19:33
Thanks for posting Lincolnshire. I think BRES will soon start to be mentioned in these types of articles, with agreements in place with tier one offtakers. That will help with getting traction and exposure. We could be as close as four weeks away. Stars are definitely aligning. If ever there was a time to buy it’s now.
Everything is starting to align for bres, excellent article from Korea
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20240512050145
Lots of good information on X.
Started: go_ly_dow, 10 May 2024 09:23
Last post: nc10g09, 10 May 2024 15:39
1-4 months for offtakes as stated by Mike yesterday
Offtake news next week lets see :)
Bigger volumes now getting paid at 6p+, other underrated aspect here is our small float which is another by-product of Mike's excellent financial management and means not much is on offer as we move up
6.17 paid (albeit tiny volume), thinks looking very healthy here
Not ramp/deramp but we are years ahead of another AIM listed Graphite stock based in Greenland.
Started: Pauliewonder, 10 May 2024 11:20
Last post: Pauliewonder, 10 May 2024 15:01
Completely agree Legal. There is no way BRES will be still here when we get to production. Will be bought out well before then. All we need is an off take agreement and then huge re rate.
Loving Mike’s interview with Sponge on Twitter.
Respect to Mike; fantastic CEO
If you missed it:
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPMQepLZKN
Thanks for the correction appreciated. Good luck.
Stringer01, perhaps a little academic but we're main market listed, not AIM, sorry for being pedantic.
It's a good analysis but all speculation. I would've agreed ten years ago it wasn't uncommon to see 1000% spikes on AIM now however that's not the case. The only big catalyst I can see is if/when they get project finance over the line. That will follow DFS hopefully not long after. That will give a clear runway to production and from the DFS a clear idea of value. It's a massive resource with excellent grades so the re-rate if/when it happens will be enormous.