Barratt Developments Share Chat (BDEV)

Am I the only person on earth into housebuilders ??

Here

You do know planning consent has already been given on 1 million homes in the UK already? They could bring in policies that encourage house building, as you say they are concentrating on planning.

So there are no policies that stimulate house building? Just added costs through tax, and as I write this inflation is up again.

Tinky - labour has only been in power for a few months, what did you expect to happen in that time?

They seem to be focused on updated the planning process and allow central govt to have the final say in some cases - so they can overrule the NIMBYs who have been stopping many a housing scheme over the years. Surely this is a positive regarding house building.

£4.00 Has many times in the past a strong support point, not sure where this ends up if £4.00 breaks down.

Labour have done nothing to aid house building, 1.5m homes is pure fantasy.

That Welsh ginger scumbag Steve Morgan dumped Redrow on Barratt at just the right time, reminds me of the Taylor Woodrow disaster merger just before the GFC. I’d expect similar results. These could end up sub a quid with what I think is coming for the U.K. economy.

Added/drip buy.

gla

I am informed that BDEV is no longer traded.

As I write, this site quotes BDEV @ 482.1 and BTRW @475.8

Are the shares different?

The new ticker BTRW is available to add to your portfolio on LSE, it hasn't automatically changed from BDEV to BTRW on LSE, it has done on some of the trading platforms like Barclays, and I informed Div Max yesterday and they have also added the new ticker.

Confident statement in RNS but numbers suggest market is still slow. Static sp today is my guess.

As the merger completes, the name has now changed to Barratt Redrow PLC and the new ticker BTRW. This site, and others, haven't caught up yet but no daily updates on here, see you all on the other side.

Budget news kicks in on building new homes.

J p morgan upgrade helping as well this morning...gla

Added @470.72...gla

Big worry just now is the budget - if proerty wealth tax is implemented market could suffer large correction at higher end knocking confidence throughout over a couple of years while market corrects. Governemnt already knocked confidence in general and gilt rates rising on debt level /adjustment worries.

Frankfurt was never going to work, the name was bantered around, buts it’s not big enough. I thought the masses moving to the countryside, prove how ill informed they were, it presented

a buying opportunity in London especially W1 on smaller units.

The house building model is changing to corporate landlords, big ones so the margins will be reduced, that’s not factored into the share price here.

The game is a changing, and as always the masses will get left behind.

Something to think about.

"The writing is on the wall. Something to think about."

That'll be the same "writing" that everyone from London was exiting to the shires. Followed by the news that they're now all largely regretting the move becuase of the lack of "facilities" and requirement to be in the office.

All the bankers were leaving for Paris and Frankfurt. Only they didn't all leave. And many of the ones who did have returned.

Very well off friends of mine have left the country for tax reasons, only to return because our education and health systems - as broke as we all like to believe - are actually better "in the round" (to quote one friend).

The reality is that, the wealthier you are, the less tax is a real concern. It's only "plebs" with a few million that pay IHT, etc. Real wealth has the money tied up in trusts and offshore.

Just saying...

Virtually every home-owner in London is a millionaire these days Finley1, it's the billionaires you need to follow. You quote one of them, Lord Sugar, but I note he's not left his Manor just yet. Interesting posts though, certainly food for thought there and if you have sold, as you say, then you've followed your own convictions. I happen to think there's still plenty of life left in old Blighty, despite Starmer & his union cronies.

In a nut shell, you don’t know yet the effect a Labour government will have on the Barratt shareprice. My view as stated it will be negative. Based on a long career in construction, owning property, running businesses and being one of the few selling up and moving on.

Barratt is clashing with the Labour regime about their 50% "affordable" house "plan". Vice-Chairman Rayner effectively wants new houses capped at ~80% of their true market value -- and they want shareholders and other capitalist exploiters of the West to pay for it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/29/baffling-affordable-housing-rules-wreck-rayners-building/

Why is it a knee jerk reaction. Sir Fox man Starmer has already stated that things will get worse.

Seeing as he calls the shots, do you really think that the budget will be anything other than a tax grab. It appears to me very obvious that more legislation is coming, as he stated, and things will get worse.

If you think Reeves is going to impress to the upside then you await disappointment like every other investor. She has no history of flair and imagination, and no qualities what so ever to lead the country as Chancellor.

Knee jerk reaction that will be short lived. The economic mess left by previous government will drive the measures (tax rises/spending cuts) required to tackle deficits uncovered! This was going to happen anyway as the deficit (or most of it) was known about before election! The budget in October will determine impact on house builders until then it is all speculation!

Starmer will ensure that house building targets are not met. Interest rate rises caused by printing money will result in house prices rising.

LBC blames 2TK speech for the fall

https://www.lbc.co.uk/business/69730aaa476a4221a1885e4269b6d150/

When might the divi be fully reinstated? Or has it been permanently lowered

The interim divi was lowered by 43% so I imagine the final divi will be lowered by the same amount.

If this is the case the final divi will be around the 10.2p mark

So it wouldn’t half the previous ? Because they lowered the divi since the redrow bid?

More like 20p is my guess Abject, despite all the crazy selling happening at present which I will ignore as usual.

What is the final dividend likely to be here? Around 11p?

The news of 0.4% growth has welcomed the share price earlier reaching 489.60p.....

"UK economy grew faster than expected in May by 0.4%. Construction grew at the fastest rate in almost a year in May, with house building and infrastructure projects boosting the industry, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said., external "

This morning's mark-down was overdone on reaching a retracement of over 78.6%

Chart with Fibonacci retracement .... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=8hKz5w6Rnr4AfcIRIfWk/CmtZ6Y8yGXX9B%20Z46y4lPY=

Doing better than I first thought... but still way off target.

According to the 2nd link the 300k per year target was actually set by the previous government

https://www.nhbc.co.uk/binaries/content/assets/nhbc/media-centre/stats/nhbc-annual-statistics-2022-data-booklet.pdf

https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/more-than-212000-new-homes-built-last-year-annual-housing-supply-figures-show/5126619.article

487p Has gone over the last High of the day, so a pleasant afternoon

My take from the "UPS" thread earlier...

UPS - BDEV 481.80p. Large drop for the last couple of days and mainly on the news today, profits are going to be better nevertheless for next year. On the charting front, the shares are positive as the 8 v 21 days MA is bullish and the shares had a maximum retracement after reaching 511p.

"The Board intends to declare an ordinary dividend in line with policy, with dividend cover of 1.75 times adjusted FY24 earnings per share, with the FY24 results."

Midland, I think labour will be much like the tories - lots of words about planning but nothing material. More important is interest rate reductions which will happen in Dec imv [maybe earlier] but that will trigger sp recovery imv.

With the election looming and a lab govt incoming, it seems as if house building is the subject of much angst and promises (ha ha) for an overhaul. what are the predictions for bdev with a labour govt? is there a construction/housebuilder type company that's set to really benefit? I hold a few bdev and thinking of adding. what think you good people?

9999 bought @469.67 T5

If this deal unravels, share price will go up . theres no doubt about that, these are super cheap at the moment, just to prove I am putting my money where my mouth is I am about to buy 9999 shares to add to my holding...

I'm not sure what effect this investigation will have on the short term share price as surely this would have been factored in already as a given as its such a large deal on the table?

The UK Competition & Markets Authority said it will investigate the planned GBP2.52 billion takeover of Redrow by Barratt. The CMA said the investigation will assess whether the creation of that merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition within any market. "To assist it with this assessment, the CMA invites comments on the transaction from any interested party," the watchdog said, with invitation to comment closing on June 28. The CMA has a deadline of August 8 for its phase 1 decision. It had opened a preliminary investigation in March, after the all-share takeover was announced a month earlier. Housebuilders have already attracted the attention of the CMA. In February, the regulator said it found "fundamental concerns" within the UK housebuilding market, and launched an investigation into eight housebuilders, including Redrow and Barratt. Publishing its final report on the housebuilding market which followed a year-long study, the CMA found that "the complex and unpredictable planning system, together with the limitations of speculative private development, is responsible for the persistent under delivery of new homes".

Barratt Developments price target raised to 540 GBp from 488 GBp at Berenberg

Yes , it was in by lunchtime

Hi,

Has anyone had the dividend payment today?

Thanks

Date: Monday 13 May 2024

LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - UK supermarket group Asda on Monday revealed plans to redevelop a 10-acre site in North West London, hoping to create a new town centre that includes 1,500 new homes.

The grocer said it is partnering with develop Barratt Developments to redevelop the brownfield site, currently home to its Park Royal Superstore in the Borough of Ealing.

The proposal, which is subject to planning approval, will see Asda build a new 60,000 square foot superstore and car park, in addition to 1,500 new homes - 500 of which will be affordable - "creating a new town centre for the local community".

The mixed-use redevelopment of an established store site is a first for Asda and follows moves by a number of other retailers to get into the house-building game, such as Sainsbury's which submitted plans in October to deliver 2,519 new homes alongside a new 1,300 sq ft store near Ladbroke Grove.

While there was no financial information given, Asda said in a statement that the plans represent "one of the largest land deals of the last couple of years".

Ian Lawrence, head of mixed-use developments at Asda, said Asda's foray into mixed-use redevelopment marks a "significant milestone for the business".

"By working with leading developers like Barratt London, we are able to maximise the full potential of our property portfolio for the first time."

Lawrence added that Asda is "also unlocking further opportunities to release value from our extensive property portfolio, which can be reinvested back into the business to fund other initiatives".

gla

Took some profits with one of my miners yesterday ........ buying back into BDEV.

Sold before the Redrow deal was announce 562p.

gla

"So as the resolution was passed yesterday does that now mean we all get 1.44 shares for each one we hold ?"

..........................

Willy,

Not quite yet, the Fat Lady still has to sing...

The Fat Lady in this instance in officialdom...

If you check out the Barratt circular in the RMS dated 19th April, the timetable allows for (hoped for) approval of the deal happening during the second half of this year...

Until such time, this is an aspiration ~ albeit maybe a likely one, though it would be above my paygrade to have a view on that ~ rather than a done deal...

Which is why, at the time of writing, Barratt's share price is i515.2p, so 1.44 x that is 741.89p, yet Redrow's share price is only 728.5p.

So, the gap ~ between 741.89p and 728.5p being 13.39p, or 1.8% of the 1.44 rating ~ will reflect any market twitchiness about the deal maybe, just maybe, not going through....?

If you happen to be drinking buddies with the Captain (Hindsight) ~ which sadly I ain't ~ then you would surely have an opportunity to make an extra bob or two...?

Because if he told you that the deal would go through, you'd get the benefit of the inevitable relative price hike (relative between Barratt and Redrow, that is, there's no absolute here) by being invested in Redrow shares, and if he told you it would fail, you could sell Redrow and then re-buy once the result was announced and Redrow's share price (almost inevitably) fell back again....

In relative terms, of course... :-)

Personally, I was very fortunate to be 100% invested in Redrow at the time of the offer (I don't get many of those right) and I sold the same day , got a result, and don't wish to overly push my luck...

Anyway, hope that helps..?

Strictly

So as the resolution was passed yesterday does that now mean we all get 1.44 shares for each one we hold ?

Wondering whether to reinvest my dividend on Friday

Drift the usa economy is growing at around 3% based on energy costs that are half ours and taxation around 66% of ours which is reflected in future earnings and hence sp. Our prosects are grim and labour will not help. Net zero opportunities in the UK is what net zero means in reality.

“Details” at https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/barratt-slash-redrow-merger-inquiry

It’s hard to see how the merger of the largest and 7th largest creates competition concerns when PSN, TW and Bellway aren’t far behind BDEV.

Finally, the CMA has got involved! RDW not a done deal yet.

On the quality of builds. I do believe Mctaggart & Mickel are one of the best. Think a US company acquired them?

I do live in a Victorian Red sand stone build from 1912. Would’ve nice to bring these back rather than the paper thin new builds

Own new rate reducer mortgage scheme is being launched on Monday. This is making new build properties more attractive to buyers than the 2nd hand market. Launching initially with Barratts

Trout. I hope you don’t mind. Your comments sparked so many similar thoughts.

I left school at 15 with no qualifications but pushed by my parents to find a job, any job, that could contribute to the family’s poor income by way of paying “board”. I joined the University of Life in the building trade of the 60s where health and safety, diversity and ESG would have been laughed off site by brickies, chippys and sparks. When arthritis kicked in as it inevitably does to tradesmen scrabbling around on the floor for years, I found myself in the Civil Service where 30 years in the building trade gave me a head start on the skivers, misfits, deviants, and the “instructors” who filled many a day a with “courses” designed to correct my thinking. I think a number of them were budding lefty politicians.

Just now I try to influence my two 18 year old 6th form grand kids to get a proper job in the real world and to be unswayed by thoughts of a partying debt-fuelled uni, the Mickey Mouse degrees and the brainwashing they will witness.

Fortunately, and influenced by their parents and grandparents, they both have part time jobs, one in a MacD, the other in a supermarket. They mix with people of other backgrounds and are learning about life in a far more rounded way than a University could. When they reached 18 they both received a sum of money with appropriate advice from Nana and Grandad, invested in their early years in amongst others, BDEV.

And now I am back in BDEV in a small way but looking to build my stake. GLA.

Interesting debate... I've always loved the phrase "standing on the shoulders of giants", meaning we don't have to discover everything from scratch but can learn from our predecessors and build on that knowledge. That can be applied to all avenues of life, but in schools it seems to be done very badly. We chuck random facts at children with no context of the history of why it is relevant. Take a subject like trigonometry... how often have we heard the phrase "when will I ever get to use this in real life?" Whose maths teacher ever explained that trigonometry provides a perfect model for working our the best place to convert a rugby ball from? We bore our children with facts without teaching them how to think, by showing them how these principles were discovered in the first place.

I'm of an age where I got a grant to go to university, but I quit after a year because it was a worse quality than I had experienced in school and 6th form. Now I find myself as an employer being presented with CVs of graduates who simply don't know how to think! They tout their qualifications, but have no practical experience of using any of this knowledge. Give me a 22 year old with four years of work under their belt over a 1st class honours graduate any day. And don't get me started on the levels of entitlement and salary expectations of these graduates!

If I had had children (I managed to escape that burden) I would definitely have encouraged them to learn a trade and only take on years of debt for university if they showed massive aptitude and desire to follow that path.

A plumber with integrity is worth 100 accountants in my book!

Hi Strictly,

I was watching a clip from Elon Musk on schooling and education, and I’ve tried to have

a conversation with some elites, his point basically is the whole principle of schooling

needs to be thrown out the window and started again.

Of course it won’t be, but it’s a common point from business that the kids coming out of

education are not fit for business. Why, is that, well it’s the great elites who run the shooting

match, and have no interest in what business is saying, and it’s needs.

A shame really, because the consequence particularly with the house building trade is

that all the house builders want to build is little noddy houses, which they have got

down to a semi skilled level of construction.

Tradesmen in there 50’s are leaving the industry in their masses, because it’s not the building

trade they all started in.

And, yes I know loads of self made people, who didn’t enjoy school purely because we just

all wanted to get out and start earning money and starting businesses. Even more opportunities today for hard working young people, and property is particularly appealing.

“London, the east end, where I grew up from a working class background has produced some of the best businessmen by far. “

………………..

Finley,

Well, I’m from West London, I’m afraid, but now living on (not in) Dartmoor….

I had record wholesaling then video wholesaling companies, back in the day from the mid ‘70’s, sold out in the mid ‘80’s, left the capital with others to manage until 2000 when I took it over myself and ended up all in house builder shares for the past twenty years…

And Captain Hindsight has shown that to have been a good call… but, another twenty years on from here, who knows?

But I’m imagining I’ll be pushing up daisies by then anyway ~ cheerful b.stard that I am…? 😊

But, yes, I’ve read plenty of biographies about successful businessmen and, back then, pretty much all of them didn’t do well at school…

Not because they were thick ~ far from it ~ but largely because they couldn’t stand being told what to do…

Just like me…! 😊

Strictly

I did like your comment about the boy from Bermondsey. London, the east end

where I grew up from a working class background has produced some of the

best businessman by far.

All out of hard working class values, and not a graduate in site, those were the days.

Thanks Meconopsis for a really useful counterpoint view.

The NAV argument in particular is strong and, whilst I’d like to see the discount widen a little more before I top up, I am sure that it will in time at least return to par or better. I am happy to buy the assets for a discount and to collect the, albeit reduced, dividends whilst I wait for the discount to turn into a premium.

The minority might not be as tiny as you imagine.

I’ll reinvest my divi but would only buy more nearer 400p.

Great longer term buy/ hold, dividend has been reduced yes and the final dividend may well be reduced also, that's the negatives and I understand why some dividend investors may wish to move on and buy into something with a larger dividend like M&G, however my opinion is that this position is temporary. Dividends will likely rise again next year and when interest rates are cut (later in the summer in my opinion), this will recovery swiftly. On top of that when the world settles down again (wars, etc. - timeline unknown) and the economy starts to move in the correct direction the value of this share will sore. £6 is my minimum target and potentially it will move a lot higher than that. Till then I'll sit and wait and collect the, albeit slightly smaller, dividend.

Good luck all

This drop nicely allows me to reinvest my dividend.

I get the analogy, thought of it myself, you could even stretch it as far as Bentley if you wished. As the new Skoda Enyaq Coupe starts at £50k you could even argue that all the marques have moved up a division, and that Skoda is now a premium brand, although it's taken 35 years to get there. I'm just not sure you can assume that people buy houses on the same basis as they buy cars. I guess we'll get some answers if this goes ahead.

It's worth having a look through them. At least one new short position. LOTs of corporate to-ing and fro-ing.

I have sold my shares today too because I am a dividend investor and cutting the dividend (however temporary) for me is a time to move on.

I wish everyone who is holding on to their shares the best of British though.

This boardroom maneuver makes the ability to invest in this great company like Barratt near impossible now to hold .This purchase brings absolutely no value to me as a share holder. This appears at first glance as early stage empire building with other peoples money. The board work for us and not the other way around. If hes not building value for us then how can i trust him then. I have had to sell. When government ask why no one invests in UK companys it's for these very reasons. Good luck to the folks sticking wth it tho

Oh yes, thanks for the correction Meconopsis. I don't know how that % sign slipped in there, it should have read 1.75x. Apols also to buller for any confusion, senior moment...

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1040373/barratt-strikes-deal-to-buy-fellow-housebuilder-redrow-for-2-5bn-1040373.html

@buller...

@Krustysmegma is correct that a lower dividend cover pays out more of the earnings. @Krustysmegma is incorrect is adding a % sign to the dividend cover number - it's a ratio, not a %

So, if Barratt made £100m then dividend cover of:

- 2.5 results in a dividend payout of £40m to shareholders

- 2.25 results in a dividend payout of £44.4m to shareholders

- 2.0 results in a dividend payout of £50m to shareholders

- 1.75 results in a dividend payout of £57.1m to shareholders

Barratt have announced a while ago a plan to reduce dividend cover (i.e. increase capital returns to shareholders) from a dividend policy of 2.5 dividend cover in increments of 0.25. Someone here will be able to remember where they were targeting (I seem to remember 1.5, but I might be wrong).

The reason for the policy was that the company was accumulating more capital than it could usefully deploy.

No, it clearly says in the text they are reducing dividend COVER to 1.75%, which is actually an increase from the 2% the previous year. It doesn't offset the reduction due to lower volume, profit etc. though.

It clearly says in the text they are planning to reduce dividend to 1.75 so nearly having this year. I have made my money on the the SP and was only staying in for the very good dividend over the years. Looks like that party is over so will look around where I canget better dividends

I would be interested to know the combined land bank of this deal. A sellers market soon.

Some share holders have long memories. That clown Mark Clare buying Wilson Bowden.

They should just stick to building little noddy timber frame houses, and don’t over expose

the business, which this deal will surely do. I managed to get out prior to this announcement.

Thankfully.

weirdly, i'm doing the same thing but in the opposite direction: looking for a price close to 500 (mid between now and low of a month or two back) and then i'll jump in...

gl.

I don't want to be a downer and I like the look of Barratt, but this company has forecast profits for 18/19 that are at least in line with inflation, has an attractive P/E ratio and does not appear overburdened with debt, yet only 6 weeks from going ex dividend the SP is 11% below the mean for the last year.
I think that I will wait another couple of weeks and if there is no change will jump ship.

Totally agree.... big top up for me this week.... this will hopefully rise steadily from here up until end of October, with anticipated pre div price of approx + £6.30.... GLALTH