Member Info for BsaBantam

BTRW down 5% on Friday and lots more since the start of the week? Market not liking the budget much then?

LGEN has generated certainty with some significant and very helpful medium term future cash flows AND divested a non-core business. I note also that the construction sector is currently the subject of significant political interventions, so LGEN has neatly sidestepped the near term environmental risks associated with that. - I say well done LGEN board.

Politics is a short term game. Building houses is a long term one. Once the government realise that making the building market less profitable will most likely slow down house building they might u-turn. If not the BDev board may simply play along until the next lot come along. As Hank Rearden said, "they want us to pretend to see the world as they pretend to see it" - Investing in BDEV is now a very long game.

I have never been able to accept this sort of "customer protection regulator" as a valid concept for any market. When I buy a product from any seller I check the small print first. i.e. The concept of Caveat Emptor is a habit I have always followed. So, if the product is too complex to understand - don't buy it. The real problem with regulators such as the FCA is that they need to find fault - any fault - to justify their existence. And that's a never ending cycle that has detrimental effects on the way markets trade and develop.

I am enjoying the IHT conversation today. So another idea I would introduce is the following: IHT never hits the superrich because they have long term strategies to deal with it. Also it appears to me that there is a very large overlap between the super rich and the political classes on both sides. (D Cameron, R Sunak, T Blair and G Brown are good examples). Thus it is generally the "newly" rich who suffer the most IHT, as has already been pointed out in this conversation. So does anyone else think that the system is somehow rigged against us ever joining the super rich? And does this explain why they seem to hate E Musk so much?

It seems that the assumption running through this thread is that IHT is somehow a good thing because it prevents wealth being passed down the generations. I acknowledge this effect of IHT but fail to see any overall benefit to society in discouraging wealth creation via this type of redistribution. Would anyone care to explain how IHT benefits society as a whole?

Good news this morning. Does BDev become the Deputy PM's favourite company from this week? Can we look forward to lots of good news in the coming months?

Yesterday, @richie1132 wrote that the half year review observed that the FRS17 backlog of profits will most likely start to be released in 2028. If so the BOD need do nothing for 2/3 years and then look like hero's at the end of the 3rd/4th. If I were CEO I would be playing it very safe until 2028 too. i.e. Reduce the cost base and stack up future profits. Until then we all collect 8/9% dividend, dependent on when and at what price we bought in.

No one on this board appears to mention the share buyback scheme that is ongoing at the moment. This gives LGEN no incentive to release good news, nor to be overly upbeat about their results and progress. To be overly enthusiastic in their updates at this stage would surely be a disadvantage to their scheme. My thoughts are that although the overall amount of the buyback may seem trivial compared to the market cap it might help explain the general lack of enthusiasm for this share at the moment. i.e. Lots of brokers buying shares on LGEN's account might be keeping a low profile on the long term potential of the business. As ever, your comments are welcome on this subject.

StrictlyBricks - and so it begins. Todays headline from the Independent Online "Labour prepares to limit landowners’ gains from sale of green belt land amid push for new homes" The Housing sector may be too political for investors at the moment.

StrictlyBricks - "I would say that even at their current somewhat suppressed share prices, the house builders may still be overpriced to some degree…?" - The landbank asset bases of the builders is their real value in the long term. What are they worth? - That depends on how actively the "current bunch of nutters" distort the market with their bright ideas, especially with the rioters creating new brownfield sites in cities across the UK. This is my reason for avoiding the builders at the moment - and I agree they are probably overpriced at the moment given this opportunity for regulatory influence.

@finley1 - i would be careful when criticising rr. the trotsky will tell you that you are a mysoginist for doing so.....to the others who rally support ab at aviva. - note that i did acknowledge that the short term gains of politicking are paying off for ab and aviva. but remember this; when the **** hits the fan the politicians look for someone - anyone - to blame. ab is setting herself up as a future target, surely the recent honours tell us that? for me i still prefer the safe and boring lgen.

Amanda Blanc is a political player in addition to being a credit taker. She joined the board in 2020 and now takes credit for the changes since then - can one person really divest 8 businesses successfully in that short time?. Her media visibility and input to multiple NGO narratives has raised the profile and influence of Aviva, and that's a good thing in the short term. BUT this is a risky business, particularly given her tendency to support the current woke political agenda. That's the reason I sold all my holding in Aviva and transferred to LGEN some months ago. It's steady, boring, patient and low profile. Chgeck out AB's profile here https://www.aviva.com/about-us/leader-profiles/amanda-blanc/

I am a qualified accountant in practice since 1983. Unfortunately it's part of my job to read and understand accounting and reporting standards. I also like spotting trains :-)

Guitar solo. - "more reliable/ profitable CSM"? We as investors cannot know. The actuaries and accountants working within / for the insurers are making their estimates of the potential future profits from contracts. The actual will depend on the outcome of the contracts which is subject to all sorts of risks. Acts of God and Political agenda risks being the most important IMO and the most difficult to assess. It is clear (to me at least) that the apparent undervaluation of UK insurers in general tells us that the market does not have a clue how accurately these complicated rules will have been applied and therefore are steering clear until time and experience can guide us. If. like me you believe that insurers are by their nature very conservative in applying these new rules, then the obvious strategy is to fill your boots and hope for the best. In the meantime most insurers offer higher than inflation dividends and the potential for growth, alongside excellent cash reserves. That's good enough for me.

Maybe the(distorted ) low PE will benefit those of us who've understood the effect of the new standards. As many have said before - DYOR! Those of us who've done this are seeking an advantage in the zero sum game of stock market investing.

Look at BDEV for an example of buybacks. Compare their price to competition - esp prior to their bid for a rival.

I am back in. Wish me luck!

I would tend to agree about ms Blanc. AV. has under-performed its main rival LGen for some time. This happened when Nigel Wilson, the LGen CEO, is in his retirement year! Perhaps Amanda has her eyes on a different prize?

Just what we needed. Progress across most fronts. No surprise downside news. Modest tick up in dividend. Positive statements about mid term opportunities. Overall, a bit boring, but just what we should expect from an insurer.