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Romaron, Thanks for your insight unfortunately I disagree on every account . The fact the the share issue has now reached 2. Something billion and the ex bond holders are still holding tighter looking at the trades since April the 30th only one trade went through at 45k shares the rest over 100k where cancelled out seconds after look back and you’ll find the trades yourself. It’s not in the BOD’s monthly or daily routine to try and manage avn’s Share price what is important is to transform Hylas 4 into the very best that’s out there driving prices down over the total fleet which will happen . The fact that the trading pattern obviously has changed has been said by S/S Smaller lows and bigger highs Where actually in a 3/4 % daily trade range we seem to have moved for the 20/30% swings . The spread romaron only morons looks at the spread on lse go to your broker mate I could buy at 5.2 close of play . We’ve still have a nomad what a strange statement and what auction are you referring too , The if it’s the April late RNS to cover the if the bond holders/ shareholders don’t agree to the restructuring of the company your well late and out of date . Cheers .
It appears that they aren't even keeping up the pretence of AVN having an orderly market. We know there are hundreds of millions of shares available but they are largely held by the bondholder/shareholders and are basically lock-up paper and the few PIs left have them in a drawer and will see what the Gods will bring. The only reason we know this is: (a) the pitifully small amount traded (b) the spread (c) the AIM rules that mean we have an auction any time there is a mismatch which is almost a foregone conclusion with the current amounts and spread. These then have to be reported, hence the RNS's! We still have a Nomad and a rule of AIM is that you must retain a broker at all times. The current situation makes it uneconomic for the broker and they aren't being helped (it seems) by the company. Each day it appears that AIM isn't really in their plans. When something is no longer needed it tends to be forgotten and overlooked. The share price is no longer indicative of anything imo and it's either the Directors have thrown the towel in (without telling us) or a plan (good or bad) is being prepared. It smacks of poor governance to let this charade continue. Perhaps the dénouement is closer than we think!
Agreed HITS. And even more laughably, GCC still doesn't know how to use the site. Everyone who's been on here for 5 minutes knows that the function is 'Filter' not 'Ignore'. Bless.
KPat, as you'll have gathered from the thread post immediately preceding mine, there are one or two sorry individuals still posting on here who were talking the share up when it was at the heady heights of 200p+. They've not stopped since. You can always recognise that type of PI. They're the ones who start making wild accusations about "multiple IDs! Evil Global Shorting Conspiracy (tm)! Paid trolls!" whenever faced with less than ramptastic counter-opinion. Then they shut their eyes tight, shove their fingers in their ears and sing La La La as loudly as they can, rather than even consider the validity of any position in any way differing from their own, Tragic, really... but things probably feel nicer to them once they've pulled their pink fluffy blinkers on. Back in the real world, recent SP movements do give strong indications that we're nearing placing o'clock in my book... we'll just have to wait and see. AIMO.
lets face avn is now just a gamble so do you take a lower cash out price or do you keep your bet for the second half? teams are FC AVN V FC INSOLVENCY. score 0-1. three months left of second half. cash out is so crap that i have decided to stay for second half. will keep you updated as scores come in enjoy the game. we have all paid for front row seat
I'm not sure which of these posts you've been reading KPatel because I'm afraid I don't see most of them anymore. That's because they're on IGNORE. Don't be folooled by the persistent negativity of those with multiple ID's and a de-ramping job to do.
Cassius and HITS, Thank you for your explanations , this makes a lot more sense to me now. I appreciate your time. This is a forum which I'm sure I speak for the rest of us when saying it gives investors an opportunity to learn, gain knowledge, and make for better investment choices. Unfortunately we have morons who I also believe the majority of this forum are aware of that make unhelpful and hostile posts who in all honesty clearly have deeper issues in life.
WO - Highly unpleasant, and an idiot - what a combo!! I'm guessing you're single, right...?
HITS, it was only a rough calculation. If I remember rightly , I think that the original bid of �1.40 per share plus debt roughly came to �1 billion. That was mainly the debt of course. The figures ( done on the back of a matchbox) all depend on that original bid having substance. If you are right and it never happened, then what Avanti would be valued at,if a bid ever came in,is anyone�s guess. Cass
It is possible to create various scenarios and one could be the appointment of Kyle Whitehill. His previous contract was short term (1 year I believe) and who is to say this isn't another? Taking charge of a loss making company would also include a thorough investigation and personal due diligence with the possible decision that the company had no future as a stand alone company. He had been in discussion with Rupert Pearce shortly before the GM but that could mean anything. A G2 meeting or something more? The likeliest reason was nosiness on the part of RP. Apparently RP a better talker than listener. Maybe he's under stress.
Cassius, I've not crunched the numbers re "then and now" market cap and debt, but I suspect you have... $550m less debt but more than 12 times the shares in issue. Thing is, I'm not at all sure how real that 140p offer from Inmarsat ever was. They were certainly very quick to distance themselves from any offer and state they were no longer interested at all back in late Jul/early Aug 16 - so I'm not sure that alleged 140p bid in any way represents a valid start point for any calculations as to current value as a potential acquisition. AVN has assets for sure (tin in the sky - now including H4 as you point out and spectrum rights). What it doesn't yet have is any commercially viable track record as a going concern - which is why IMO it's only worth considering the value of its assets and not its overall business.
HITS, we had a bid �1.40 and we turned it down when the debt was much higher than now. I believe an equivalent bid now would be around 30-35p. That is just based on market cap + debt. There was a far bigger debt before but a smaller market cap because of far less shares. Also when the �1.40 bid came, H4 was not in the sky and that has got to have added a lot more value. Romaron, thanks for the reply. I appreciate it. Cass Romaron, thanks for the reply.
Agree with that Tracker. Note he hasn't answered my question as to whether he bought more below 5p either.
Hi Cassius, I wouldn't wish to raise false hope and I have been saying for some time this is a binary bet. At the GM an officer of the company told me he had bought more. He could have been lying of course but why would he? The numbers attending were larger than at the AGM sans bondholders and there were more Avanti employees there. I suppose the main reason that keeps me here is Paul Walsh and the actions of the large shareholders (ex bond holders). There may be nothing left for us and the same shareholders/bondholders have a second tranche of debt giving them the opportunity to obliterate us at a later stage. This has been mentioned and the debt for stock may only have been a stay of execution. Throwing us a crumb would have been self-serving and possibly a sop to employees. I don't expect the company to exist a year from now because I expect the larger holders to jump at an opportunity to unload at a better price if one happens. H4 and the spectrum have value and it's more a case if anybody wants it and what they'll pay . I'm hanging on in case there is anything left for us. I have no idea of the value but if you asked me to pick a number I'd say it will bear no relation to today's price because those (ignoring Caledonian) left have few/none counterparties to trade with for any size. The daily amounts are risible and even the MM has forgotten them calling an auction if they are surprised by an interest. Our future (imo) will be in an RNS of a fait accompli. Us remaining PI's have no influence.
Can't see this being sold as a going concern for any worthwhile value at the moment... not with the level of (sure recently reduced but still sky high) debt.. The assets however (in-orbit hardware and spectrum rights) would be of interest to more than one. But what an asset sale would return to PIs, God alone knows. Nope, to deliver a return to PIs, AVN needs to weather the current funding shortfall and prove that it can operate profitably/
Romaron, you have sold to me the idea of Avanti being sold. Ever since the AGM that you attended you seem to be convinced this is the way things will play out . What price do you think ? 30p ?
Here here! Well said
You are obviously talking about the potential to lose investors shedloads of money. You have talked this share up all the way down to a fraction of it's former SP. You make sneering references to anyone that does not share your viewpoint, or more likely agenda. Let's face it, you have been wrong on every single prediction you have made, and the company is now teetering on the brink of insolvency. Some potential.
.....there are always opportunists in the wings. I'm no expert but H4 may have some value to other satellite companies. Something convinced the bond holders to agree to a stay of execution. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-inmarsat-stocks/inmarsat-rejects-echostar-takeover-bid-says-it-undervalues-firm-idUSKCN1J42EC
Kpatel. If a share price is �1 it is a �1 whether there are a million or 20 billion shares in issue. You will still get �1 per share. The difference it makes is to the market cap of the company. 1 million shares at �1 = market cap of �1 million. 20 billion shares at �1 = market cap of �20 billion. But your shares would still be worth �1 in either of the examples. You can imagine how much harder it is to reach �1 in the second of the 2 cases though. That�s why more shares in circulation means it is harder to achieve that �1.
Yep. It's all about the market cap ( defined by the number of shares in issue multiplied by the SP). Simple example. Say a company has 100 shares in issue at �10 each. Market cap is therefore �1,000. Say you've bought and own 10 shares. You "own" 10% of that company. But the company sees it needs more money, so it issues 50 more shares for anyone to buy. It can't realistically make these shares available at �10 each (because the total market cap value is rated to be �1,000), so it issues them at whatever discount to the current SP it believes is necessary to get them sold and the money incoming. The overall SP will fall - at least in the short-term - because a) there are more shares in issue - simple supply and demand economics - and b) because the newly issued shares have been sold and bought more cheaply. The nett result of the above? You still own 10 shares, but now you only own 6.67% of the company. And the value of your shareholding will almost certainly fall at least temporarily in tandem.
Kpate what ever the share price goes to you will realize those gains. but it's never a good thing in the short term as supply and demand comes into play more shares more supply lower sp. now a stock split say two for one would be bad if sp comes down as you would own half the shares you had. so if your break even was a pound now you would need to get to �2 to get break even take no notice if i have this all wrong but it sounds like you are confusing this to a stock split
Thank you jTIS, what I don't understand is that if you have an average holding now of say �1 share price and the current share price is is 5p so a significantly loss. If after share dilution the share price is still around the same price but in the future the company recovers and the share price reaches �1 again would you have still broken even after taking into consideration the share dilution. I understand your percentage ownership falls but I guess I'm trying to understand how that translates to the price of your holding and whether that you need a higher price to be achieved compared to your pre dilution share price . Or does this not impact this? Sorry I may be just very confused!
Kpate, If there is a placing or rights issue the new shares are usually offered at a lower price, so PI’S will see the existing price of thier shares drop to somewhere near or even below the placing price. When the new shares come in to the market the percentage of the company you owned before the dilution will go down. Sometimes the placing or rights shares them quickly get sold on further depressing the price. However it does give the company a way to raise funds and if you think this is a good reason which will at sometime help the company grow or develop then it could be a good thing. Hope this is useful. Gla
Cassius or to the forum in general, how would the share dilution affect a PI holding? Would this mean the monetary value of the total shares we hold falls? If the price miraculously recovers in the long term to our average share price for example would we break even or would we need to see the price surpass our average share price with a share dilution?