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I think you might be right. It is in neither party's interest to hide anything as they have to work together. Orbital would probably bend over backwards and Avanti probably have the better position. I doubt there are many secrets between the two of them and I expect Orbital would try and accommodate.
Rom, I doubt I could be more confused... or maybe I'm not and it's all brutally simple? The way I read the Apr 9th RNS was simply that AVN knew it had $90m of short-term liabilities already incurred that were due to be paid out during Q3 2018. I further took it that against its own projected revenues and cash position for Q3 2018, it could see that it simply didn't have the funds to cover those already incurred liabilities... hence its statement that it needed to source an extra $50m... or $90m, if that extra $40m of "infrequently occurring revenue" (whatever that refers to) didn't drop in time. IMV, one of those liabilities is deffo the final payment against H-4, which becomes payable as soon as successful in-orbit testing is completed. From memory, that's (coincidentally) $40m or thereabouts. The other $50m will, I suspect, be a combination of running costs, accrual of interest against the remaining bonds, servicing other debt, creditor invoices etc etc. So I see those two $40m amounts (one definitely due out soon and one hopefully due in soon) as completely separate things. Mind you, it's worth noting that throughout its history, AVN has danced with death on the very edge of the precipice more than once before and has always managed to pull a last-minute rabbit out of the hat. Maybe it'll manage to do so again - though that trick becomes ever increasingly harder to pull off, once it's been repeated once or twice... and this time of course we've had an "either the directors or a creditor may well put the company into liquidation" RNS, which is a new thing. All speculation - which is completely down to the ongoing bizarre radio silence from the AVN BoD. 36 days and counting...
Just to confuse you more HIS at the GM Nigel Fox mused about the non- recurring $40mio (he didn't say it related to the orbit testing) and said something along the lines 'yes, but there are various ways of treating the sum'. I took this to mean it wasn't life-threatening and could be postpones or treated as a PIK type of thing for example. Lets face it, Orbital will want their money but are also likely to prefer an orderly commissioning and transferring of interests. I'd imagine their relationship with Avanti is good and symbiotic. I'd say that NF wasn't unduly worried about this amount. It was only him and me so I may be reading a lot into his body language but he didn't seem too worried or is a bloody good actor.
Shake I thought I'd read somewhere that in-orbit testing had been completed successfully (which then triggered the final payment of some $40m becoming due by early July... which then explained at least part of AVN's sudden and short-term need for cash). Having said that, I can't for the life of me remember where I read that, nor can I find any mention of it online. So I might be entirely wrong - though the timeframe looks completely realistic, given that in-orbit testing started in the last third of April.
Avanti Communications is listed in London on AIM (AVN:LSE). On 30 April 2018, Avanti had 2,163,335,585 shares in issue. Key investors were: Solus Alternative Asset Management, Tennenbaum, Great Elm Capital Corp, Rimrock, MSD, Quantum Partners LP, Goldman Sachs, IVA, M&G Investment Management and directors and employees. 92.5% of shares were classified as not being in public hands. Estienne would you know if Elm are new holders cheers ..
Great Elm Capital Management, Inc.On 26th April
Avanti web site states An America company has taken a 9.06% stake with no previous notifications issued 16/5/2018 but no RNS on LSE ??
WO, you absolute clown of a human being. You are clearly that heavily invested that a serious and significant point made by not just myself but many in this forum has your ass on fire. The company have kept PIs poorly informed and to drop the bombshell of insolvency and debt we had no idea about warrants a more comprehensive plan on how they will fill this gap. H4 is currently irrelevant as reflected in the current share price and as already mentioned below it will be operational in July which does nothing seeing as the company will be buried end of June. Now hop of to the circus because as I explained a company which states in its RNS that is is pretty much a pathetic pile of poo it does nothing to attract a savior to take on contracts or whatever else is needed to plug this financial black hole. It needs some POSITIVE news and if that's in the form of an RNS that's what we need. WO, you are clearly heavily invested so I think it's your financial acumen that needs to be reviewed. Muppet.
Does anyone on here know how the in orbit testing is going? Or when it’s due to complete? At least this might set an expected date for an RNS. I scanned back to the launch RNS and notices is says quite confidently service will begin July on H4 I am nervous with the rest of you this share price decline and not even holding at what we all feel is an under weight price puts the hebe jeebies in me....
The silence is deafening...Or have they got something up their sleeve that they might surprise us with.... Tick Tock Tick Tock....BOOM or BUST !
They have left the Weatherspoons and gone to the park with some 2 litre bottles of Tesco cider......
It's a shame for the loyal PIs who have stuck by AVN through the torrid times over the last few years that the BOD have treated them so badly in relation to keeping them up to date on key matters. Regardless of a PI losing money here its the way they have been treated in the process which I'm sure is a learning curve for all. The loyalty is not reciprocated and in fact the amateurish way AVN have dealt with this financial meltdown is pathetic. And for all those in the forum throwing unjustified praises to new and old executive members this is a wake up call. Regardless of prior performance they all have their own agendas and from what it looks like to me the company has deteriorated under their watch. I myself am a PI, hence my interest here, but I am glad I sold the majority of my stake with a small amount remaining just in case a miracle happens!
Who knows what this lot are doing in the background,,the silence isnt good for the nerves!
I am quite literally gobsmacked - as I posted before - that, following AVN's own announcement of their funding shortfall and doomsday clock, there's not been at least a holding RNS saying "Guys, we're all over this and the BoD's got every confidence that our short-term funding requirements will be fully resolved in a timely fashion". The absence of this being said makes me think that it's not being allowed to be said... because it's not true. I'm guessing from recent SP trends that I'm not alone in those thoughts? Either way, I guess this will all become clear pretty soon.. 37 days and counting. AIMO.
MTB absolutely right... I clearly need to re-read my secret membership book.
HITs - Strictly speaking, I believe the gesture you allude to is the little finger, rather than the index. Other wise, it jut looks like you're halfway to picking your nose - not the look any self-respecting evil global shorter would want to convey.....;-))
All, Have been some interesting varied and valid opinions shared on here recently. I am still sticking with my hold at the moment based on the fact that the shares which were converted have not been sold in bulk by the big holders. If you look at Carillion which was doomed, the big holders all pretty much sold out before the end. As the volume remains very low I think I will stick with the red or black gamble for the time being. Just my opinion dyor etc... gla.
Heh... you can always recognise an EGSC member anyway, if you know what to look for. Watch out for the coyly raised index finger touching the corner of the mouth. They can't help it...
Thanks for that HIS. I don't expect to be educated in the finer points of the satellite industry but also don't want to waste time going down blind alleys. A point in the general direction and a correction if I'm wrong is appreciated. The share price is not worth discussing at present. There is no traffic and only ocassionally does trading climb into 5 figures. The management will be focused on the companies future and remaining PI shareholders are here only on sufferance (also includes employees). The price is zero or more than 11p imo. You can make a case for both. Conundrums: Why is Paul Walsh still here? What was behind the Kyle Whitehill hiring? (his contract with Liquid Telecom was 1 year I believe so is it a temporary post until he finds something more permanent?) Radio silence - what are they doing? Caledonian sale - why? They were talking to ISAT last month - not surprising but was it more than saying hello. A big US influence in this company - the Avanti situation is nothing new for them. We see administration - they see opportunity.
Yes, and we say things like 'I've been expecting you Mr Equity*....' (*See what I did there...;-))
That�s my big hope Scotty. It�s been such a long and complicated business getting to where they are with the restructuring. Would they have gone all through this process to trip over a hurdle that they must have seen coming all along ? Surely with all the planning it�s taken to get to this stage there must be a plan to get over this last hurdle.
on the restructure and approvals they needed to get there. Seems like a huge amount of effort if they knew they didn't have the money to carry on. Also seems bizarre that the majority of the bondholders would give up their rights to first dibs if they didn't feel there was a chance of some recovery play.. https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=1bca2101-3434-4cc4-b2fa-1b8066229ec3
Romaron, in general, you're right. The value of any given spectrum is in large part down to the number of recipients (or customers if you like) that can be served by it. Therefore the 5G spectrum in New York City is going to be worth one whole lot more than the same 5G spectrum band covering the Sahara. I'm on record as saying that, apart from specific vertical applications, satellite-delivered broadband has a rapidly declining role in high population density developed geographies (Western Europe being a classic example). There are far more efficient, much more readily deployable and commercially worthwhile transmission technologies to cover needs there. There's a host of fast-growing evidence to support my opinion (but nevertheless, that's all it is... just my opinion). However, take a nascent market like Africa, or the Middle East - or even an existing one like the Mid-Western USA. Sheer economics vs population density completely reverses the above paradigm and - for all its limitations - satellite becomes quite literally the only cost-effective delivery mechanism for broadband. It very definitely has its place and role to play, if intelligently and appropriately targeted. And that's even without looking at particular and potentially both large and lucrative vertical markets like in-flight connectivity, which is effectively another "satellite or nothing" opportunity. AVN needs to ensure that it's chasing the right rabbits - as I'm sure it must know. The question remains... can it evolve its business model in terms of targeting and deliver appropriate contracts of sufficient value in time to address its cash needs?.
agreed, fingers crossed it's not number 3. I've seen a few of these over the years and in each case the Shareholders do get royally screwed and it appears in retrospect the build up to those events are mainly planned to benefit the bondholders or last minute funders. Yet here I am leaving my money in on the hope that number 1 on your list is true.