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GCCRa, I understand that it's important to the myth you're so desperate to create for you to try to convince everyone that AVN is such a fabulous stock that there can only possibly be one sole person with any negative opinion. That one person according to you holds multiple IDs and is (of course) a member of the legendary Evil Global Shorting Conspiracy (tm)... To which I'd reply that the only questions begged by your assertions are:- Are you a fanatical zealot so blinded both by misplaced faith and a series of bad decisions on this stock that you'll spout whatever nonsense you can in an effort to shore up your rapidly crumbling confirmation bias? Or are you just yet another AIM pump n dumper? I note that you have STILL avoided the other question you've been asked now several times - which is based solely on the information issued out by the company itself. Let's try again... What's your opinion on what AVN is doing - or has done - to address its self-announced funding shortfall of $50m (or possibly $90m) that it has categorically stated that it needs to resolve within the next 38 days? I admit, that's a big boy's question... so maybe you're better off continuing to pretend the issue doesn't exist and carrying on living in Care Bear World, where everything's pink, fluffy and full of rainbows, where nothing troublesome ever even needs considering.
Thanks for the reply WO but I'm not a lot wiser. I supposed one of the differences is in which part of the world you own it. For example owning a house in Mayfair as against Blackburn. Spectrum in the G8 countries as against Africa. Africa does offer a lot of potential and has done for decades but it is just as possible that it will be opened up by a different (and cheaper) technology in communications. Against that there is nothing wrong with tried and tested if you have nothing else. I liken Africa to oil field finds. Lots of potential but as always it's about finance. Can they survive until the infrastructure is in place. The demand is there but not the means to finance it. It will probably be the likes of a Google or Facebook making a drive that will change things. Hanging in with a hope and a prayer. This stock is unusual in that we weren't wiped out before the restructure and the bond holders joined our team. Still, another milestone is keeping them focused (end of June finance) and I wonder if the recent hirings were as the result of a global warming, they are like polar bears climb onto ever decreasing ice floes or there is a master plan? Either there are no sales or Avanti is in some kind of negotiations.
We won't forget you and the fat lady, I really hope she's not warming up her vocal chords, Some of us are living in hope on this board, I wonder if Paul Walsh really is in wetherspoons living it up like you stated earlier, or is he out there touting for business, and doing his best to keep the orbiting Titanic from crashing back down to earth,!
Hey!!!!!! How dare you forget me and the Fat Lady!!!!!
A few here actually know what they're talking about and this is a question to those actually know about spectrum licenses. A year ago AT&T got into a bidding war with Verizon for Straight Path. There is plenty of info google if you search, for example http://www.richmond.com/business/local/verizon-completes-deal-to-buy-henrico-based-straight-path-communications/article_0b843794-6c03-5d60-b658-eee84f29c479.html but it means little to me. Is there any similarity between the spectrums of Straight Path and Avanti? Has the value of spectrum collapsed in the past year? They may be as similar as silk to cement but an explanation in layman's terms would be appreciated. Thank you.
Do take note of the fact that all the negativity you read below is being posted for a reason. That being that MTB, HITS, etc. are all the same person / organisation who's mission is blindingly obvious ! Why AVN are not addressing this issue of sustained de-ramping is beyond me.
Yep point taken HITS The valuation isn’t an easy one to work out people. Thanks for clearing up the poss liquidation outcome MTB. Its either: 1-AVN playing games and we just have to have patience? 2-AVN generally in trouble and are seeking to persuade/corner the investers? 3-AVN shafting the normal shareholders in a pre arranged plan? Fingers crossed its not option 3, My break even is 60p,the longer theres no positive RNS,the more I’m concerned. Good luck everyone
Not necessarily Scotty - If you buy from the shareholders you have to pay a premium for control and assume all the debt. If you wait for insolvency, all you have to pay is the value of the assets, and potentially at a discount due to a forced seller. The administrator will generally just be concerned covering the debt holders, with the shareholders somewhat secondary.
if someone on the sidelines did want the assets it would seem more sensible to get in now and guarantee the deal rather than wait and chance losing out entirely. I don't know enough about the competition to know if there would be any real competition when trying to get hold of what remains so they may just be waiting on the sidelines to get everything super cheap....
Sorry, the copy and paste had a few problems but I�m sure you get the idea. The jumbled up signs and numbers should be GBP signs.
I posted this earlier in the year, it�s just a very,very rough calculation So in 2016 Inmarsat bid �1.40 a share which equates to a � 200 million pound market cap. And the debt at the time was $980 million. Let's round the market cap plus debt up to � 1 billion . Now the debt is $ 423 million so to get the market cap plus debt back to the �1 billion we would need a market cap of approx �700 million. When we have 2 billion more shares issued that mean an sp of around 35 p. Also when the original bid was made there was no Hylas 4 in the equation. It's obviously back of fag packet calculations but interested in other views.
William, I'm not sure how real and concrete that 140p offer actually was. It certainly got taken off the table pretty damn quickly. Plus today, there are now 12.333 x more shares than there used to be (courtesy of the D4E swap), so that 140p offer today would only be 11.35p to amount to the same overall value (although now there's obviously less debt too) . However IMV estimating 50p today (9 x current SP) is still a bit of a reach, to say the least. Can I also suggest you use the "Reply" link when replying to a post in a thread? It saves all your replies becoming separate topics. Thanks.
Yep im just thinking down the lines if an offer of 140p was declined not too long ago im assuming the potential buyer had done there homework. If they put say for an example 50p offer they would obviously be paying a lot less and jump the que from other potential suiters,im not technically sure how companies would fight it out over a firesale. In other words ‘take the bull by its horns’.
Others here who know the 'wholesale value' of satellite capacity might have a view on what the assets are actually worth in a firesale, but my strong suspicion is that there would be nothing left over for the shareholders after the bondholders have been paid back, even after the D4E.
Depends on what value might be ascribed to the business as a viable going concern (revenue vs cost and debt), because acquiring it lock stock and barrel means assuming the liabilities as well. I'm sure that other operators are weighing (or almost certainly have already weighed) all that up and are comparing such an approach to merely trying to cherry pick the assets they may see a value in from a carcass. That's absolutely not to say AVN is inevitably doomed... it's just what competitors in any industry will always evaluate, whenever a rival looks a tad sickly, just in case said sickness proves fatal.
Interesting comments. Could it still be beneficial for a company to put a bid in for AVN at a reduced rate (from the £1.40 that was originally mooted) than wait for a poss liquidation etc?
From memory, the D4E swap just addressed the 2023 (biggest) bond issue. The bonds from the two earlier bond issues remain, I believe. If so, holders of those earlier bonds are at the front of any queue forming, should assets get firesold off. I have heard this morning coincidentally that Echostar in particular are watching the potential unfolding of things at AVN with keen interest. They'd see the major value-bearing assets as the frequency bands AVN currently occupies, rather than the in-orbit hardware or the existing AVN customer base/contracts, such as they are.
If all the bondholders have had their bonds swapped for equity are they not in the same boat as us? after the sale of any assets and payment of remaining creditors I assume there will be nothing left for d4e bondholders as with us ?
Ok thanks. Do you know what the asset value is roughly? As things stand,the timing of the ‘we need more money or we go under’ announcement after launch,it seems the bond holders cant get there hands on quick enough. Seems all pre planned. Hope im wrong.
Wot SS said. Of course we have to remember that the bond holders are also the biggest shareholders so they do have a vested interest in the Company being successful, but ultimately, they have the fall back position of the asset value.
They will get the entire company and the PI's will get wiped.
Does anybody actually have any idea what the bond holders will get if this goes under? I know this has been brought up a few times but there seems to be no real answer,granted its prob legally complicated.
I think he held the stock in the past and hence has a view. Same with me - I was a LT holder back in the day, but bailed when the debt servicing cash flow balance began to deteriorate. Since then I've traded in and out a few times, recently having bought a few below 5p, but I'll be out if it hits 7.5p. Can I also suggest that posters' view that non-holders have no place on a board like this is wrong, and actually self-defeating. It's always possible to be wrong on a stock, and the way we avoid losing money is to continually challenge our own investment thesis. If you only have holders posting, you will be definition only get positive views (because that's why they hold it). So, holders should welcome negative views (from non-holders) so that they can use these to test their own beliefs, and if the thesis still holds, then fine. The truth is that most posters here hate negative views because they fear that these people might actually be right, and they are so far underwater, they feel it's too late to change. It's a very interesting study in self-defeating (and very human) behavior!!
OK, Matt. Thank you. Why is he here on this board? Is he our saviour?
Dan - you might want to look again. All his posts on AVN are negative, but he's also posted on a handful of other stocks, most being positive. You might also consider the fact that he's actually been correct regarding this stock so far.....