Member Info for MattTheBrave

Few thoughts :1. people who either can't calculate percentages, or do so incorrectly, probably shouldn't be investing in the stock market....:-)

If the Dollar falls against sterling, then UK stocks have become more expensive for US citizens to buy - hence if they believe in any form of mean reversion, then the rationale to buy does not really hold. Only if they think that the dollar will continue to weaken does the currency argument hold up. However, given that a stock like Capita is very sensitive to stock specific news than overall market direction, I would suggest that any linkage is very close to zero.

DORE offer at 7.5% discount to NAV - Equivalent for FSFL would be circa 103p, so should keep investors interested here!! :-)

Of course it depends on how quickly they accumulate stock, but I'm always a bit surprised when a company announces they're going to take a stake like this - they've already moved the share price against themselves by 7%. There's always a chance in these circumstances that the stake building pushes the price ahead of where it should which can create selling opportunities - the good news in this instance is that the stock is so cheap, there's a lot of headroom before this bites - certainly above £3 IMO.

No, not strange at all. I have never posted on JIM as I am not and never have been a shareholder. However, I have had an account with them since 2009. I post now because I think I have a relevant viewpoint on the recently announced deal which others might be interested in - kind of what these boards are for, no?

As for the RNS, can I direct you to the following excerpt: "In addition, it is a condition of the Agreement that the total AUA, and total number of customers, of the Execution Only Business must remain at least 90% of their value at the date of the Agreement throughout this period. In the event that any of the conditions set out in the Agreement are not satisfied Interactive Investor can either extend the period to complete the migration of the relevant clients or immediately terminate the Agreement. "

I think there's reasonable grounds to believe that Jarvis are in the process of losing more than 10% of their AUA, but we'll see. I think it's worth sharing this viewpoint on the Board - not sure why that feels strange to you?

Purchase by II is dependent on Jarvis' customer retention. I'm hearing that Jarvis clients are leaving in droves rather than transfer to II. This makes sense because X-O was execution only (clue in the name) whereas II is a subscription model. I myself have now transferred all my X-O assets elsewhere. When I posted the final instruction, i received a message along the lines of 'this broker is seeing a considerable number of redemptions and hence the wait for the transfer to complete might be longer than normal'. My message is - don't assume the deal will happen at the current price, and if you're banking on that, you might want to give this further thought! :-)

M&G only entered the bulk annuity market a few years ago - it's still building up the business here.

Yes - it's not unusual for an offer constructed prior to the target stock price going ex-dividend then reduces by that dividend, so yes I agree the actual offer is 48.56p when looking at the current price. My argument regarding little upside from here remains intact (indeed, it's strengthened)

With the likely-to-be-cash bid at around NAV, and the price only a tad below this, it feels to me like upside here is limited (particularly as the bid isn't even confirmed yet). Fortunately, there are plenty of other high yielding REITs in the UK trading at significant discounts to NAV, so I think it's time to sell and deploy elsewhere. GLA

I believe that 49.p represents 100% of NAV does it not? Statement on 10 March: "The Possible Cash Offer represents 100% of Assura's EPRA Net Tangible Asset Value of 49.4 pence as at 30 September 2024." Where are you getting 90p from?

I think they're all trades in PHP shares from any party who has some linkage to the potential transaction with Assura.

Up 10% in 2 days. Let's hope it keeps that up:-)

Share seems to have fallen a long way on the news of a $2mn revolving credit facility. As this is less than 4% of total Crypto holdings, this seems like an over-reaction? I estimate their crypto holdings to now be worth around £46mn, with a market cap of around £22m. Discount so large, I wouldn't be surprised if they initiate another tender offer! In any case, I doubled my holding today at 4.90.

I've been out of this since 2020 - kicked myself when it fell below £10 earlier this year and I didn't buy. Have started building a position again today. I think the market is underestimating long term prospects for growth, and the effect of the 12 point plan on margins. We'll see...:-)

Couple of weeks now after the rumour of counter-bidder and stock remains around 7% above the Segro bid. I've cleared out the rest of my holding this morning. Good luck to those who remain though!

Not sure about this. Rumored takeover price is only £500m, only 2% above current share price. Don't think BOD or shareholders will see much point in accepting that!

Not sure why a US cut 'puts pressure' on UK to cut - the two economies are structurally very different, and in different parts of the cycle. I do expect short rates to drift down, but longer term rates/yields may stay high for longer (upward sloping yield curve) as the market considers whether the black hole in UK government finances may require more gilt issuance in future. However, all of this does not detract from the value in SOHO given the significant discount to NAV, and the fact that they are addressing/replacing the problem RPs that it deals with. I used tyo hold this and CIV, but when CIV was taken out, I switched it all in here which has worked well :-)

Agreed flun. Provides more capital to devote to the strongly growing annuity and buyout business. Makes complete sense. Market reaction provides an opportunity.

Couerdelion - Nicely put - a mature outlook on shorters which is seldom expressed on these boards. I would even go further - I love buying stocks which have large shorters (providing the buy case is strong enough)- essentially this means there is guaranteed demand at some point in the future. Whilst you often see long term holders, you seldom see long term shorters!!

Or shorter version - PHNX does not pay dividends out of IFRS earnings (which have more to do with asset values, regardless of whether the liabilities are also changing (tend to move together), they pay out of Cash flows, up c5% to £950m. Hence there is no direct connection between IFRS profits, and success of the company/ability to pay dividends, so the Tesco comparison is not relevant. As many have said here, these profit numbers will turn sharply positive when yields fall. Also worth noting that relatively recent accounting changes preclude an annuity company taking all profit on a contract at the time of writing. They are required to spread this over time, which hurts operating profits now, but will boost them/ make much more predictable going forwards.

Whilst news of a counter bid might be true, it does only seem to be carried by one outlet at the moment which makes me wonder how serious it is? I let half my holding go at 73.5p this morning, and am holding the rest to see what happens.