Member Info for MattTheBrave

Yes - it's not unusual for an offer constructed prior to the target stock price going ex-dividend then reduces by that dividend, so yes I agree the actual offer is 48.56p when looking at the current price. My argument regarding little upside from here remains intact (indeed, it's strengthened)

With the likely-to-be-cash bid at around NAV, and the price only a tad below this, it feels to me like upside here is limited (particularly as the bid isn't even confirmed yet). Fortunately, there are plenty of other high yielding REITs in the UK trading at significant discounts to NAV, so I think it's time to sell and deploy elsewhere. GLA

I believe that 49.p represents 100% of NAV does it not? Statement on 10 March: "The Possible Cash Offer represents 100% of Assura's EPRA Net Tangible Asset Value of 49.4 pence as at 30 September 2024." Where are you getting 90p from?

I think they're all trades in PHP shares from any party who has some linkage to the potential transaction with Assura.

Up 10% in 2 days. Let's hope it keeps that up:-)

Share seems to have fallen a long way on the news of a $2mn revolving credit facility. As this is less than 4% of total Crypto holdings, this seems like an over-reaction? I estimate their crypto holdings to now be worth around £46mn, with a market cap of around £22m. Discount so large, I wouldn't be surprised if they initiate another tender offer! In any case, I doubled my holding today at 4.90.

I've been out of this since 2020 - kicked myself when it fell below £10 earlier this year and I didn't buy. Have started building a position again today. I think the market is underestimating long term prospects for growth, and the effect of the 12 point plan on margins. We'll see...:-)

Couple of weeks now after the rumour of counter-bidder and stock remains around 7% above the Segro bid. I've cleared out the rest of my holding this morning. Good luck to those who remain though!

Not sure about this. Rumored takeover price is only £500m, only 2% above current share price. Don't think BOD or shareholders will see much point in accepting that!

Not sure why a US cut 'puts pressure' on UK to cut - the two economies are structurally very different, and in different parts of the cycle. I do expect short rates to drift down, but longer term rates/yields may stay high for longer (upward sloping yield curve) as the market considers whether the black hole in UK government finances may require more gilt issuance in future. However, all of this does not detract from the value in SOHO given the significant discount to NAV, and the fact that they are addressing/replacing the problem RPs that it deals with. I used tyo hold this and CIV, but when CIV was taken out, I switched it all in here which has worked well :-)

Agreed flun. Provides more capital to devote to the strongly growing annuity and buyout business. Makes complete sense. Market reaction provides an opportunity.

Couerdelion - Nicely put - a mature outlook on shorters which is seldom expressed on these boards. I would even go further - I love buying stocks which have large shorters (providing the buy case is strong enough)- essentially this means there is guaranteed demand at some point in the future. Whilst you often see long term holders, you seldom see long term shorters!!

Or shorter version - PHNX does not pay dividends out of IFRS earnings (which have more to do with asset values, regardless of whether the liabilities are also changing (tend to move together), they pay out of Cash flows, up c5% to £950m. Hence there is no direct connection between IFRS profits, and success of the company/ability to pay dividends, so the Tesco comparison is not relevant. As many have said here, these profit numbers will turn sharply positive when yields fall. Also worth noting that relatively recent accounting changes preclude an annuity company taking all profit on a contract at the time of writing. They are required to spread this over time, which hurts operating profits now, but will boost them/ make much more predictable going forwards.

Whilst news of a counter bid might be true, it does only seem to be carried by one outlet at the moment which makes me wonder how serious it is? I let half my holding go at 73.5p this morning, and am holding the rest to see what happens.

I think there's a glitch in the system somewhere. There's no news so I think this is (hopefully!) a system error.

Read my post again Strictly. I was not supporting the use of DCFs for equities - quite the opposite. As such, we appear to be in violent agreement I'd say.

Few things. Firstly, for clarity, I believe it was me who pointed out the accounting change and its effect on LGEN..... :-)

More importantly, it's very easy to value a fixed interest bond using a DCF given that cash flows are certain and there is a known redemption date. Whilst it is theoretically possible to so for equities there is an additional uncertainty in terms of valuing cash flows - most participants will only do this out 5 years or so, as they believe any longer would be a complete guess- they then assume a 'terminal value' for year 5 (valuing cash flows from year 6 onwards). This presents a real problem, because as equities have no redemption date, and hence are theoretically infinite, the vast majority of the value is actually due to the terminal value, which is usually calculated using something very simple like a multiple of year 5 earnings, or a simple Gordon Growth model. This is why most participants don't bother with bond-like DCFs for equities. :-). I think this is true also for LGEN, with plenty of earnings volatility in recent years.

Tichtich - re you're previous post - You're correct in saying that the SOFP is not 100% guaranteed, but it's pretty close. When the annuity provider takes on the pension liability, it hedges out of the vast majority of the risk using interest rate, inflation and longevity swaps (some through the reinsurance industry). In my working life I actually advised some large UK pension schemes on a range of investment matters, including buy-ins with insurers. I genuinely believe that the risks here are extremely low.

SOFP £14bn - Market cap of £12.9bn. This means you are getting all future profits for (less than) Zero. This is hence a screaming buy which the market does not understand due to the change in accounting a few years back which means annuity providers not allowed to take full credit for sales in year 1 (hence store of future profit number). However, it means earnings are pretty much guaranteed for the foreseeable future. When the market wakes up, this stock will double. DYOR.

The point is that when you have a low capital intensity model like IG's, which means you can return 15% of market cap per year (through dividends and buybacks) you don't actually need to see any growth in revenues or profits to make a good return as an investor. If they do start to grow again, that will provide an even larger boost. The market is only just waking up to this now IMO.