Member Info for MattTheBrave

HNY all!!
Well looks like I held up the table from the bottom last year - yikes!!!
Last time I was last, I picked the same stock the following year and was top - that was Lloyds (which ironically won last year as well). On that basis I shall double down on KR1 for 2023!!

Well done all here. I lost patience a few years back and sold out, but this a helpful reminder that cheap stocks do reward investors eventually, whether through a greater appreciation by the market, or a corporate buyer.

I think so :-(

Ha! Yes, you're right - my bad. Guess there's a few sellers who hadn't spotted it either then! Does seem an over-reaction, but then that seems par for the course in financial markets these days!

Great revenue growth but completely offset by cost increases and hence no earnings growth. Company line is that most of the cost increases are 'investing for growth' but doesn't look like the market is buying that one at the moment.......This should have been better telegraphed by the management ahead of the results, and now they're paying the price.

It's not 'dangerous', but they might have over paid. That said, given the rise in the dollar versus the pound means the acquisition is worth 30% more than it was in sterling terms when the acquisition was made, so that should certainly give comfort to sterling-based investors (which I assume all of us here are!). However, ignore all that and just look at the share's current valuations - I think it would be cheap even if you took TT's contribution to zero, so I think this is a free option. Time will tell.

Ha - yes, we've all been a bit quiet. In my day job I am involved in advising pension schemes, so you can probably work out that I've been quite busy over the last few weeks and months.......:-(
(And no, it's not all my fault before you start!!! :-)))

Hope all's well with the Cavers!!

Certainly looks like IG overpaid for TT (1% local currency growth is certainly disappointing) but actually $1bn is only a couple of years FCF, and time will tell whether this acquisition which gave them immediate scale in the largest OTC derivative market in the world, will work out. Whilst initial hopes on TT were too optimistic, I suspect that what is currently built into the IGG price is now overly cautious. Meanwhile, we are left with a company on a 7x PE and a >5% yield which is a cash generating monster which is still showing good overall growth. For me, the stock remains extremely cheap and you get a nice fat divvy whilst you wait for the market to wake up. In addition, market Vol is actually your friend which is a nice hedge.

Two things - Recession to hit online retailing, and higher bond yields cuts NAV values though higher discount rate on rental income in a DCF. Whilst there is a bit of truth in both, the fall here is absolutely ridiculous for a REIT holding some of the most prime logistic space in the UK. Massive, massive buy IMHO! I bought yesterday and today, and I'll also buy tomorrow if it falls again!

Looks like Motley Fool recommended it as one of their top picks in the UK market yesterday.

....why this is up 7% today? :-)

Good question!! Relatively high volume at 3x normal daily average, but still not huge (less than 0.5% of company). Let's see if we get some form of announcement tomorrow!

200mn dividend, plus a 150m share buyback - effectively a £350mn return to shareholders, more than 10% of mkt cap - which is one reason why the stock is up so much!!

Well it must be a cold day in hell - IG come out with good results (as normal) and the stock actually goes up!!! :-)

Probably be down loads tomorrow :-(

...than the spread betting firms in times of vol, but the market always forgets. Stock collapsed in the first months of the pandemic before everyone cottoned onto the fact that profits would be a record. Same happening here as well IMO. I do agree that the stock price would be higher today if they hadn't bought TT, but that doesn't mean the market is right - only time will tell on that one. PE of 7, Yield of 6%, huge FCF generation, whilst higher interest rates mean they can charge more on clients' leverage all mean that I remain very positive here.

Added 10% to SIR's value today. The approaches of the 2 firms look similar with both targeting long-term inflation linked cash flows, which I think is still a good place to be. In addition, the last published NAV was 135p back in September, and given inflation, I think this will have risen considerably since then, so I think we'll get in at discount to NAV. On that basis, I'm going to hang in there and accept the share offer from LXi absent any further news.

Still going. Certainly doesn't seem any reason why this shouldn't go to a 10%-15% premium so 130p seems eminently possible in the short term.

I topped up at 197p today. Now trading at a 10% discount to end Dec NAV (and i expect this to have risen during Q1 given inflation linkage in rental agreements) . Not often you get these sort of opportunities!

Performance over the past year has been terrific. However, it looks like we are now going to see a period of significant investment funded by share issuance. Whilst I have no doubt this will bear fruit longer term, the large issuance, and delay in getting this in the ground and income generating may well put a ceiling on the shares. Having made 30% since I invested a year ago, I'm out for the time being, and hope to get back in around the 140 level.

Is it just an (illogical) reaction to disappointing Amazon sales numbers last week?