Member Info for HeadInTheSand

I'm not sure of the relevance of this?

The Oct 26th 2021 CPR has already informed what pressure the feed to the NG will be (between 40 to 70 bar).

That info is in the footnote at the bottom of page 37.

Jollifant, you are entirely correct.

Of course first gas is priced in, because the existing wells are producers, not dusters. This is not an exploratory drill. Therefore literally everybody accepts that some volume of gas will be produced out of Saltfleetby at some point.

However, as you'll well know, what is not yet priced in (simply because it's not yet been established) is the consistent level of monthly production that ANGS is able to achieve out of Saltfleetby.

Howey's a fake psychic!

I have to reveal that he messaged me earlier, begging me to make sure that I mention the absolute necessity of a successful sidetrack sometime tomorrow.

(Didn't see that one coming, did you, Howey? More proof!)

For what it's worth, presuming gas at £3 per therm for the next 12 months, even 1.65 million therms of consistent monthly production wouldn't deliver anywhere near a profit of £1 million a month over that time period. In fact it would only deliver a gross revenue of less than £9 million to ANGS over the year till end Jun 2023.

If one's looking for £10 million+ yearly profits over the next 36 months, it's of course all about the sidetrack.

I'd agree with that, BV. After all, Bobrad is the antimatter version of you.

I lose track of George's promises, given that he's made and broken so many - but I believe his latest assurance is "sales gas" between the 7th and the 12th of July?

The actual day is not that important in all honesty, provided that enough "sales gas" is generated consistently and in time.

SL, a couple of things. Over the last 30 days I've made just over 5 posts a day and you've made just under that figure. Your previous statement seems to show that typical tendency of ANGS fans to exaggerate.

I honestly don't know why you're so obsessed with motive? It's utterly irrelevant, when compared to the viability of whatever content anyone may have posted.

Thirdly, thank you for your offer, but I'll politely decline. I'm easy with the choices I make and with respect, I really neither need nor seek approval or validation from those I don't know, nor who know me.

BV, the RNS doesn't say that they are. In fact it's worded in a way that strongly suggests that the last million quid/91 million shares are being placed elsewhere.

As to how "sticky" the Aleph shares are/will be, nobody has a clue. Aleph itself only held 164 million shares, prior to today's announcement. Failing the odd lack of any TR-1 regarding their original holding, I'm going by the info on the ANGS website re significant shareholders to come up with that number.

SL, there really is no incongruity in my opinion at all.

Gas is going to be got out of Saltfleetby in some volume at some stage . That is an absolute given.

As I have been saying from the get-go, the questions are how much consistent production and from when?

My criticism of the company has always revolved around their eternally missed predictions, endlessly broken assurances and repeated lack of transparency.

So BV, you're claiming categorically that Aleph and partners are taking up all £3 million's worth of the second swathe of shares, are you?

That is not what the RNS says - but hey, when has that ever stopped you making things up?

Baits, the difference surely here is that this isn't an exploratory drill. The gas is known to be there and the two existing wells were producing to some extent up until shutdown 4.5 years ago.

There surely is no question whatsoever in anyone's mind that gas is without a doubt going to flow at some point, so that fact must be priced in. by now

What isn't priced in yet is - how much gas and by when?

It's really not about first gas at all - though that's obviously a crucially necessary step in the process.

Nobody but nobody thinks that Saltfleetby is going to be a duster - so it's a given that it wll produce gas - so it's a given that first gas must have been priced in long before now.

The only relevant questions are what will consistently achievable levels of monthly production be and from when?

Agreed Tygra.

The only two slightly surprising things about this morning's RNS were:-

the over one month dela in Aleph & chums ponying up the extra £2 million (that was meant to be £3 million)

and

the fact that Aleph (and chums) seemingly don't want the last £1 million's worth of shares (= 91 million shares) at a price of 1.0989, so ANGS is having to place these elsewhere.

Noel, see this morning's RNS.

That seems to say (though it's hard to be sure) that Aleph (and chums) are (at last) taking up £2 million's worth of new "unlocked" shares (= 182 million shares) now.

The remaining £1 million's worth of new "unlocked shares" (= 91 million shares) are being placed (but quite possibly not with Aleph and chums) at the end of this month.

Those two transactions would (finally) complete the £6 million placing announced over a month ago.

To me, it reads like Aleph (and chums) have (finally) taken up £2 million of the remaining £3 million and that the other £1 million is being placed elsewhere later in the month.

It's a fair, but slightly nitpicky point IMV Howey.

I was merely reacting to SL's comment that the SP not rising after ANGS having bought the other half of the asset was - and I quote - "insane".

As I'm sure you'll understand, I suimply pointed out that the ANGS MCap has pretty much doubled since Forum's 49% was purchased.

Howey, to be fair, I did say "nearly doubled"...

And as I did state, it depends on what number of shares in issue you go with.

As of early May, the company had 1,368 million shares in issue. That's not in doubt (9th May RNS).

Immediately after the acquisition, this number had risen to 2,283 million (according to the ANGS website). That is a 67% increase.

However, if the RNS of 24th May stating that Aleph will also be taking (why haven't they yet?) the second tranche of 273 million shares of the £6 million placing is to be believed, then that puts the shares in issue up to 2,556 million. Aleph taking those additional shares is also stated in the interim accounts.

That would then be an 87% increase in the number of shares in issue, compared to early May. I think it's reasonable to call this "nearly doubling".

Well if by "sentiment", you mean that by now - and quite understandably, given his track record - the market takes any claim, promise, projection or assurance spouted by George with a wheelbarrowful of salt, I'll agree with you.

At this stage, only hard and verifiable numbers will do. How much gas and by when?

SL, again you forget something rather important.

It's the market (not the company) that gets to decide the value of an asset (and in tandem, the value of a company). It doesn't pay much attention to company claims of value.

When ANGS owned 51% of Saltfleetby, the market rightly or wrongly felt the company was worth c. £16 million. Now it owns 100% of the field, the market rightly or wrongly feels ANGS is worth c. £30-33 million.

Now that really is "simple maths".

Silverlight you say "so the fact we dropped on it (i. e. acquiring the other half of the asset) is insane."

You have forgotten that ANGS simultaneously near on doubled the number of shares in issue while near on doubling their ownership of the asset. There used to be around 1.35 billion shares in issue prior to ANGS buying Forum's 49%. Now there are 2.28 billion shares in issue (or 2.56 billion, if Aleph decides to take up the strangely delayed 2nd half of the RNSed £6 million placing).

So... ANGS's MCap has also nearly doubled as a result of the acquisition. From £16 million to approx £30 million (or £33 million, if you include the extra 273 million shares Aleph is meant to have taken by now).

What's "insane" about that? The company's doubled the value of its primary asset through a purchase... and its MCap has pretty much doubled as a result. Looks perfectly normal to me.