Member Info for HeadInTheSand

To be factual, there's an RNS out with yet another moved date.

If the field only produces at 1.5 million therms a month (as per what George was claiming for months up until very recently), with this latest delay ANGS will now not be able to fulfil the Q3 hedge of 3.375 million therms.

If the field produces at 1.66 million therms (as per the very convenient increased estimate George gave a week or so ago), then full production must be reached before the end of this month without fail, if the Q3 hedge is to be met.

The next three quarters (Q4, Q1 and Q2) each has a substantially higher hedged volume of 5.25 million therms....

How's that sidetrack spud date looking? July 21st, according to George via RNS only a month ago...

"ANGS was a new company in March" says Silverlight....

Okay, let's go with that... what was it George confidently said in March? Oh yes... "Full production in June, all of which would be unhedged and which the sale of could generate up to £7.2 million of revenue".

Given how that late March prediction turned out, doesn't look like much of a new company to me, when it comes to endlessly moving the goalposts and kicking the can down the road...

I'm meant to get a "bloody nose" from today's RNS announcing yet another delay?

Silverlight, with respect that's truly comical. What you're effectively saying is "It doesn't matter what George promised yesterday, nor how many times he's broken his promises and missed his estimates. It's all about the here and now!"

So you're saying that the current CEO's track record on accuracy doesn't matter one bit. Well hey, each to his/her own, but I'm more of the mind "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. But fool me for the umpteenth time and perhaps I really need to be a lot less trusting."

SilverLight says:-

" Id rather listen to the bod who are planning on a large dividend, they wouldn't be suggesting this if they weren't confident of lots of free cash flow."

Well, if you've been listening to the ANGS BoD over the last three years, by now you're certainly used to ever-repeating disappointments. And they're "planning on a large dividend", eh? Gee... an AIM-listed company promising "Jam tomorrow! Honest!" How unusual...

I see Gotham is feeling left out when the grown-ups chat...

SillyButtons, yes - but note my point about 7 day per week operation.

This url may be useful:-

https://www.convert-me.com/en/convert/energy/therm/therm-to-mscfgas.html

SillyButtons, 5.4 mmscf/d would indeed equate to 1.665 million therms a month, but it's worth noting that this is the case only if the site is operational 7 days a week.

Again, if one is to believe George's projections (a bit of an ask, given his track record of unerring inaccuracy, but still), his most recent prediction is 5 million therms a quarter without a sidetrack . This from the Jun 28th RNS:-

"The hedged volume for July to September inclusive is for 3.375 million therms. The expected output during that period from existing wells B2 and A4, assuming a start date of 1 July is approximately 5 million therms and comfortably exceeds the hedged amount."

For info, 5 million therms is 486 mmscf.

Now he's clearly not going to produce 5 million therms in calendar Q3 without a sidetrack, because he's going to miss at least half of July.

Speaking of sidetracks, the most recently "promised" spud date (as per RNS of 10th June) for this is July 21st... anyone think that's at all likely?

I really wouldn't worry about or pay too much attention to any ANGS promises.

George has stalwartly kept up with ANGS tradition, so that whenever one of his gets broken, he magically and instantly comes up with another revised one.

Unfortunately the difference at this advanced stage in things is that every day that goes by in July, Mercuria is owed another £75k, courtesy of this month's hedge alone.

That's £900k to date and counting... better get a move on, George.

RT003 really doesn't think much before posting, does he? This morning he seethed the following:-

"Perhaps these colossal twa** would like to explain what exactly the 3rd party would do with the entire plant at Saltfleetby that's now sat on their doorstop twitching."

Well, if it ever came to that and the lenders and/or those on the other side of the hedge (Mercuria falling into both of those caps) needed to recoup what they're owed, I imagine they'd sell the security (Saltfleetby) pretty easily and pretty quickly.

The asset in and of itself is worth plenty (and a lot more than it used to be). However, the issue for ANGS is that they need to start realising some of that value fast, given the several obligations that they've contractually tied to the field (over the next 36 months hey need it to generate enough GP to pay off the capital plus interest payments on the £12 million loan, deliver the £6.25 million owed to Forum as the balance of the acquisition, and of course cover off the sums owed under the hedge, already accruing and which at current gas futures pricing will end up totalling well over £100 million).

George seriously needs to get a move on.

Re George's production projections, it's all a matter of public record, so there should be no arguments.

For months (and in fact right up until two weeks ago) he was stating that ANGS hoped for 1.5 million therms a month out of the two producing wells.

Then in the Jun 28th RNS, when he announced the latest two week delay, he conveniently upped his production forecast by over 10% to 5 million therms a quarter from those two producing wells.

Treat that with whatever level of caution you feel appropriate, but that is where it stands at the moment. There has never been a statement regarding a forecasted production level of 7 mmscfd (which would equal over 2 million therms a month) without a sidetrack from ANGS.

Of course ANGS *will* get paid at some point, because they're going to deliver gas at some point. That's not really the issue.

As to placing blind confidence in whatever the company may state in its RNSes, even the briefest look at history under GL's tenure what with its ever-moving goalposts suggest that might not necessarily be the wisest thing to do.

However, at some point presumably soon, ANGS will start pumping gas into the NG. How much and by when remains to be seen.

Secret Landlord, not that your level of disingenuous idiocy merits a reply, but hey, I'm a charitable guy.

I'm saying that first gas is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things - In pretty much the exact same way that initial pressure/flow rate info will be.

It's really not the fact that gas will at some point start flowing from the 2 production wells to the NG that's the significant thing (although obviously this is a crucial step).

It's the consistent (NB... "consistent", not "initial") flow rate - i.e. the volume that can be consistently delivered into the NG - that's the only important thing.

Cperkin, that's a n utterly ridiculous and/or utterly ignorant statement.

Gas prices being so high when the hedged prices are so much lower merely adds risk for ANGS.

Oh and just for Howey, to make his day before this glorious-looking weekend....

"It's all about the sidetrack"

BV...

"HITS up to the usual tricks trying to put a negative spin on a possible stonking RNS being released..."

You must know by now that every single AIM oil & gas company always makes a very big deal of initial flow rate figures, surely? Literally every single last one of them has always done this whenever a well is first tapped, or re-tapped after a period of shut-in. including ANGS in the past.

HDT, we won't get actual independently verified production figures until 3 months after the event from the NSTA (the OGA as was). Almost immediately at full production start, ANGS will undoubtedly release a very positive sounding RNS talking about "initial pressure and production rates", but as anyone who knows even the slightest thing about AIM O&G companies knows well, that's very standard practice and should be taken with a considerable shovelful of salt.

As to the 60 bar? That's the just the specification pressure required to feed gas into the National Grid (between 40 to 70, bar I believe)