Member Info for HeadInTheSand

The CTAG website is still down. Not that this necessarily means anything at all, but I don't recall it being down for this long before now.

Wishful thinking no doubt, but maybe this is an indication that things are - at last - reaching some form of conclusion, one way or another?

That's not in the least clear.

ANGS specifically gave the reason why they couldn't make the payment in the May 7th RNS. "Production variability in Q1"... their words... that's not a matter of "management choice", is it now?

That first principal payment was originally due at end of March , and the second principal payment is due at the end of this month. That's a total of £2.5 million which is now due, not allowing for any interest payments either.

The Ocebot says "a small placing".... small? Raising £1.25 million at God only knows what sort of discount when the company's total market cap is £10 million would hardly rank as "small".

What is true is that Trafigura hasn't pulled the plug - as of yet, at least. It remains to be seen what terms it will unilaterally impose, should this debt "resculpting" go through.

In terms of those who can be most justifiably accused of publishing never-ending repetitive tripe and causing trouble by doing so, I would respectfully suggest that by far and away the biggest culprit is a certain Amit Ben Haim.

G-Med is quite correct. As everyone with half a braincell has been saying for ages, exactly similar to any breach of contract, defaulting on a loan only has consequences if the lender chooses to enforce them.

WG818 also makes some good points.

Firstly, the terms of the current £20m loan state that its applicable interest rate rises by 12% (SONIA + 8% rises to SONIA plus 20%) if payments are not made as agreed. That'd push the applicable interest rate up to an utterly unsupportable. 24.2% per annum. That's Trafigura's starting point - they've got that in the bag already, should they wish.

And then there are all the other liabilities still not covered and so still owed...

One cannot help but wonder what ANGS has splashed both all its borrowed cash and its cash generated from sales revenues on? Certainly not on paying off current debts, that's for sure...

Mystic Meg Onetomany, my last try with you.

Solely going by what ANGS itself has RNSed, it is in default, in that it has clearly breached the terms of the loan, by not making required payments on agreed dates, including offered extended dates.

Trafigura is not (currently at least) enforcing that default, because were it to do so, that would need to be RNSed. Instead it's choosing to "discuss" with ANGS how to remodel the debt. But of course it's not a discussion, since Trafigura has all the power in this utterly one-sided "negotiation" - and so it can and will impose whatever terms it likes on any debt remodelling it may be prepared to accept. And presuming it doesn't choose to pull the plug on the company, those terms are going to be even harsher than the current ones.

*Sigh*. From the May 7th RNS yet again:-

"...a 5-year loan, with a twelve-month grace period on principal repayment and then approximately even amortisation from March 2025. Production variability during the first quarter of 2025, before the booster compressor was commissioned, has resulted in the first principal repayment of £1.25 million, being deferred"

As ANGS has informed via subsequent RNS, Trafigura did indeed agree to defer the first payment, once until May 26th and then after ANGS had failed to pay by then, again until May 31st. Despite more than once RNSing its inability to meet this first of 16 quarterly payments, ANGS has made no mention that it has managed to pay it yet.

Of course, the second quarterly payment (£1.25m plus say £500k of interest) also falls due by the end of this month. Does anyone think ANGS has the slightest hope of meeting that either? No wonder the terms of the loan need to be renegotiated.

Having now specifically named 2 parties - big error, since every previous time he's revealed enough alleged detail to be fact-checked,it's bitten him on the ass - Amit's brought back the magically reappearing NDA to the table.

God but this boring hustle is as cack-handed as it is never-ending,

Anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoesize realises that, Oofy.

Equally to the point, the first payment which ANGS could not meet because of insufficient Q1 production was originally due in March.

Going by the info that ANGS has RNSed, this first payment has still not been made... and on top of that the second quarterly payment (£1.25m of principal plus c. £500k of interest) is due this month (i.e. within the next week)... but Q2 production is going to be around 15% lower than Q1.

Little wonder that debt resculpting (or should that be rescalping?) is so desperately required.

Little wonder that the CEO bailed.

Little wonder that the only executive replacement that ANGS can come up with is a director previously kicked off the board for contravening share dealing rules.

But never mind about all that... Onetomany says "Everything is awesome". So that's okay then.

According to the RNSed information given, ANGS have not made either of the two deferred payment dates. It is that defaulting on terms which has caused debt resculpting, with Trafigura no doubt calling literally all the shots because it holds literally all the cards.

However Onetomany, if you want to believe that you're the only one marching in time and it's the rest of the world that's out of step, carry on in your delusional state - it's bound to be more comforting than facing up to the glaringly obvious reality of things.

There absolutely has been a failure to pay the first instalment on the pre-agreed date, as announced by ANGS itself in its RNS of May 7th. Trafigura then agreed to extend that date until May 26th, as per the RNS of May 19th, and once ANGS had failed to meet that date too, a further extension till May 31st was allowed, as per the RNS of May 27th. There has been no news of payment since - and the second quarterly instalment owed is now less than a month away.

This inability to pay instalment #1 was stated by ANGS again via the May 7th RNS as being down to insufficient production from Saltfleetby in Q1 (and it should be borne in mind that it's producing significantly less gas in Q2).

So, this inability to pay the first instalment (also being an absolutely archetypal and unmistakable example of defaulting on a loan) has resulted in:-

Urgent but without a doubt crucial "debt resculpting" talks with the lender, where the lender holds literally all the cards and can impose whatever terms it likes (or send the company under and take the assets).

Alleged possibility of a left field RTO which, if the statements about the "low decline/cash positive" GoM asset are true, would result in the massively overgeared ANGS, its own "high decline and cash negative" asset and its holders being an infinitesimally sized and hugely diluted part of a new whole.

The CEO running for the exit door.

Yet, as Onetomany interminably attempts to reassure everyone, "everything is awesome"... did he star in the Lego Movie?

I strongly suspect that RH has bailed because he is worried about damage to his reputation.

The Ocebot recently claimed that Zielicki's words announcing Herbert's resignation in the Jun 19th RNS should be viewed (for some unfathomable reason) as a positive sign. Here's what Zielicki had to say:-

"Krzysztof Zielicki, interim Chairman commented: "The Board would like to thank Richard for his dedication and hard work in taking the Company through what has been a transformative time in its development. He was responsible for the refinancing of the Company and has set Angus on the course for future growth."

Those words gave me a strong sense of deja vu. No wonder... here's what Richard Herbert had to say when Paddy Clanwilliam stepped down as chairman in the RNS of Mar 22nd 2024:-

Richard Herbert, CEO commented: "We are very grateful to Paddy for his leadership and wise counsel during the five years of his involvement with Angus Energy. As Chairman, he was closely involved in the successful redevelopment of the Saltfleetby gas field, and in the subsequent refinancing of the Company, putting Angus Energy on a secure financial footing to commence the next stage of the Company's development."

Although over a year old, the wording is nigh on identical (and identically substance-free)... grateful thanks, arranged refinancing, and ANGS on course for future growth... except it never actually happens.

ANGS could do with learning a few new (and for once, effective) tunes.

- Saltfleetby Gas Field Update: On the operational side, Angus Energy recently completed the installation of a new booster compressor at its Saltfleetby site, aiming to enhance gas production efficiency.

ANGS did indeed install a booster compressor at Saltfleetby, with that coming online on Apr 11th this year. Sadly despite this, daily production volumes since the compressor was installed have averaged significantly lower than in Q1 (before it was installed). Saltfleetby's average daily production from Jan-Feb 25 was 0.1356 mcm per day. Its average daily production over the last 30 days has been 0.1170 mcm per day - and remember, ANGS already stated that Q1's significantly better (16% higher, in fact) pre-compressor production volumes were already not enough to allow the company to meet the very first quarterly loan repayment.

It's looking just great.

..and for those that don't know, let's add some factual context to each of those "developments", because OF COURSE nobody here wants to mislead people:-

- CEO Resignation: Richard Herbert, the Chief Executive Officer, resigned with immediate effect in June 2025. The company is in talks with former chair Jonathan Tidswell-Pretorius to step in as interim Chief Operating Officer.

Some may think it odd that RH decided to jump ship when ANGS is - according to the cheerleaders - on the cusp of transformational greatness. Others may think it more odd that ANGS is seriously considering re-appointing JTP, who's already been thrown off the board once for breaching the company's share dealing rules. That ousting was caused by him back in 2018 transferring all 39 million shares he held over to some start-up company to do what it liked with. It immediately sold 16 million of these, trashing the SP at the time. The RNS of Mar 6th 2019 has a full timeline on this bizarre event.

- Reverse Takeover Plans: Angus Energy is pursuing a potential reverse takeover of a group of producing assets in the Gulf of Mexico. This move is significant enough that trading of its shares was suspended while the deal is under consideration.

Some may ask themselves why the owners of an alleged "low decline/cash positive" offshore O&G asset in the Gulf of Mexico would ever want to get involved with a debt-laden, cash-strapped and dramatically overgeared outfit like ANGS. Others may think that this news of a potential RTO causing a suspension of ANGS shares is convenient timing and smacks of similar distraction efforts from other UK micro-oilers, such as UKOG's much-trumpeted but zero-yielding foray into Turkey. Again, odd that Herbert should run for the exit door if this was on the table.

- Trafigura Loan Talks: The company is also in ongoing discussions with Trafigura to restructure a £20 million loan facility and associated offtake agreements. These talks are reportedly progressing well.

ANGS took out a £20m 5 year amortising loan from Trafigura back at the very end of 2023, at an annual interest rate of SONIA plus 8% (so, around 12.2%) with no repayments required in Year One. This then requires 16 quarterly payments of about £1.8m per time to pay back the principal plus interest, starting end Mar 25. ANGS announced that it did not have the funds to make that first payment due to "production variability during the first quarter of 2025, before the booster compressor was commissioned" (as per the RNS of 7th May this year). That default is the reason why "debt resculpting" talks are so urgently required, with the lender, Trafigura, holding every single card.

and finally...

Your attempts to polish the unpolishable are growing more desperate and more laughable by the day, Onetomany. 18 months ago you assured anyone crushingly dumb enough to listen that the ANGS SP would be 1.5p by the end of March 2024 (it wasn't... it was a quarter of that).

And every single prediction you've made since has been equally removed from reality. You deserve your well-earned title of being this BB's worst Mystic Meg, even eclipsing the Ocebot (which takes some doing, but hey, you've managed it).

Of course it's from 2019, because very shortly after that, Tidswell-Pretorius was thrown off the ANGS board of directors for breaking the company's share dealing rules.

(Which he did by "accidentally" transferring his entire 39 million share holding over to a just incorporated shell company to do what they liked with - which turned out to be selling 16 million of those as soon as they got them).

But now JTP is seriously being considered again for the board, we can no doubt look forward to a series of comments from him that might for the first time bear some relationship with reality.

The Ocebot posts as follows:-

""... a highly supportive oil and gas jurisdiction, with STABLE AND RELIABLE PRODUCTION AND LOW DECLINE".

It's almost as if management has read some of the negativity on this board and taken account of it!"

Gee... I'd have hoped that the ANGS management already knew that "stable and reliable production" and "low decline" were desirable characteristics to have in a fossil fuel asset, without having to be educated by what's posted on a bulletin board.

Mind you, given that ANGS decided to borrow shedloads of money to buy Saltfleetby and what's gone on with that in terms of production output, it seems that they actually didn't know the above.

...equates to c. 1,200,000 therms a month.

As Mirasol pointed out:-

"Rolling 30 day average = 0.1109 mcmpd

This has now fallen back to pre-compressor installation levels."

0.1107 mcm (which is indeed considerably less than before the compressor got installed) equates to c. 1,200 therms a month. So, regardless of the spot prices of gas, under the new hedges, ANGS is going to have precious little of it to sell at open market pricing.

1,200 therms a month @ say 0.90p = £1.08 million monthly revenue. Take off the 8% eternal royalty on gross revenues and you end up with monthly revenues just under a million quid. Out of which, ANGS has to pay all its field opex, all its back office opex, service its trade creditors, service the remaining £1.88m owed to PF and - most importantly - service its debt costs, whether resculpted or not (currently those amount to around £1.8m per quarter, including principal and interest repayments..

Of course ANGS already missed paying the first quarterly payment on the Trafigura £20m loan, since as it told us, it didn't make enough revenue in Q1. Worrying, since production numbers in Q2 are already reported as being significantly lower.

I'd have resigned as CEO too.

Mystic Meg Onetomany is now putting his faith in "Love For Hire" Malcy? The Z list PR hack who'll say anything you ask him to for a few quid? Priceless.

I'm sure that came as huge comfort to those PIs who watched the ANGS SP get trashed as America 2030 gleefully dumped 16 million shares as soon as it got its hands on them.

For those interested, the detailed timeline of JTP's "accident" is all in the ANGS RNS of 6th March 2019 (look for Appendix One).

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ANGS/board-changes-wzilrae20kub21y.html