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HITS I believe the wiggleroom would or could be that hylas 4 Was delayed twice on the liftoff date and AVN Would be sorting out compensation over the $40m Which could possibly be a longer delay in payments to the carrier.
PS two other things occur.... 1. I've not even checked back through AGM resolutions to see if the AVN BoD has the requisite authority to issue a billion new shares (if that's what it decides to do)... but they probably have. 2. They (again probably) have a little more wiggle room (but not much) past the self-imposed June 30th deadline. The big fat elephant in the room is the $40m they're gonna owe immediately upon successful in-orbit testing on H4 being completed. That's probably not until mid- to end July, so they may have 2 or 3 weeks longer to get things sorted (presuming there's no other angry creditors looking to storm the AVN offices already).
cassius, it's the only means I can think of that allows AVN to get the $50-$90m fast. I just can't see them re-utilising bonds again, so soon after they've managed to wipe out $550m of those in the recent D4E swap - and I can't come up with any other viable/sensible means of securing funding. (Please God no CLNs and death spirals... that really would be the orchestra warming up for SS's fat lady). Yep it would be a massive further dilution. A billion - or 50% more - shares in issue looks like what'd be needed to hit the required funding level and that would indeed equal a 33% dilution. But that looks roughly like what it'd take, if my pure guesstimate on the price of a purely hypothetical imminent placing is anywhere near accurate. You do what you think is for the best, buddy - you're every bit as clued up as me. Me? I am sitting firmly on my hands and doing precisely nothing for the next three weeks - but my position is bound to be different from yours.
HITS, your placement theory looks more and more likely as the price heads down to around the placing price. I was hoping you were wrong to be honest. It�s a massive dilution again. What are we looking at ? Another billion shares! Over 3 billion in circulation then. To get to half a billion market cap then the sp only has to be about 15 p. So little hope for the very long term holders of ever getting much return on their investment . I was hoping that they would go down another route. Perhaps a bond ? On a positive note, a placement would obviously secure our future, then the question is do I put more money into this. At the moment I need about 19p to break even and that seems a long way,away.
Okay... I clearly have no earthly idea about what's going on with AVN. It's all entirely counter-intuitive, from where I'm standing. Fact remains, I'd still be massively grateful for a confirmed RNS from the BoD stating clearly a) that it has and b) how it has resolved its pressing short-term funding needs. Apart from that, I'm not going to speculate - not buying, selling or even theorizing. I'll just sit on my hands for the next 3 or so weeks.
WO, if I'm right about an imminent placing - and I can't think of any other way AVN can realistically raise the required short-term funding after its chequered recent history - then I think you'll achieve your top-up price level pretty soon. If there is a placing just around the corner, I reckon placement price would be around 4.25p, give or take 5%. If news of such has already leaked to "mates", that would explain today's sharp SP move south. All pure guesswork.
Once in-orbit testing is complete in july , and it is looking good for Hylas 4, as Avanti stated the satellite is in excellent health, then maybe just maybe things will snowball from there. Just got to get over this "little" issue of multi million $$$$$ funding, and if Avanti can negotiate with backers and customers then this will fly. After all the massive infrastructure is already in place for success given a carefully executed plan...watch this space.
Not loving today's retrace... unless news of an imminent rights issue has leaked, I'd then consider that encouraging. C'mon BoD... we need hard news on how you've sorted out the company's immediate funding needs.
GCCRa - as JTIS pointed out the 'actual' is less, 0.5 in fact today at or 12.4% . . . 6.2p v 5.74p . .it's difficult to blame the MMs where for 'some' the situation appears uncertain. Definitely a BUY . . for the believers . . go for it, 'we' know it makes sense. You've just time.
Hi GCCR, not sure if you are referring to the spread shown on LSE but I find it is usually much less when you put through a trade or even a dummy trade. In any case I think the RNS was relatively positive, it still doesn't answer all the questions, and I still wonder if this will end up bust. It is still pretty close to a 50/50 call IMHO. GLA, have a nice weekend.
Perhaps the MM�s aren�t feeling as positive as you are about that RNS. Which wasn�t positive AT ALL! You might be the only buyer in the whole market?
Looked to top up this morning on the back of that pretty positive RNS, but .... 30% spread ! What are these MM's playing at ??
WO - their actions aren't indicative of a company confident in its own abilities. The majority shareholders (disguised bond holders) do not usually wish to run companies but exist to win or reduce their losses. They are practised in both scenarios. That is what I'm hoping for; that they exit with more cash than today's valuation. If we go under that is also goodbye to their shareholding. I'm hoping they can manufacture a deal which leaves something for the heavily diluted remaining shareholders who by and large have decided to see it out rather than accept the parsimonious value offered at the current share price (which in itself is what the market think of current management). I'm more in line with Scotty's post Tue 08.34.
GCCR - he was a co-founder and is retiring in his early 50's? I read that as a sacking/removal. Call it what you like; his talents are no longer needed it seems. Saving his salary won't save the company and whose to say what pay-off he negotiated? The only option is for us to merge or be bought out imo and this could smooth the way. They've even stopped RNSing any sales. Maybe they should sack the whole sales team or force them to retire? Hylas4 and the spectrum are our assets and maybe a company with the talent and muscle to maximise them might be interested. I think the RNS had to come out due to Director changes which is regulatory. I've learned nothing new from it and I don't think they wanted to tell us anything at this juncture.
I am intrigued how a bid of 5.52p and an ask of 6.48 translates into a SP of 4.84p - has DW taken over LSE?
If ,after a decade, this venture does not know what Direction they are heading in we really are in serious trouble. Was disappointed with the wording in the RNS - surely it is possible to make life sound a bit more exciting than that? Celebrating the successful #4 launch would have been easy, and looking forward eagerly to the #3 launch would not really have needed much inspiration surely? I thought it was the welshman's influence that everything looked so dour but now I wonder. My complaint with DW was that he always made the problems more significant than the excellent news. This company should be bouncing with delight when it comes to launches - Ariane has done us proud and every launch looks to have been perfect or even better! #1 went so well they gained 2 years life because of the fuel saving on a better than expected launch. Technically they look fantastic but selling the product has been hopeless. With hindsight maybe they should have given away the bandwidth for a limited period - even Africans might have taken a freeby. Once established they might then have paid handsomely for a proven product? TLOU are suffering from the African lethargy - the story of my life!
Yep, Cassius, your quoted extract from today's RNS is BY FAR the most important thing in there. Although by no means definitive in any way, that is EXACTLY the wording that AVN has needed for weeks to put out. Now the BoD needs to deliver on its stated confidence in fund-raising... and pretty quickly. The "short term" mentioned really is very short. On that basis, I'm now expecting a fairly huge placing to be announced. Around a billion shares, I'd bet. (I actually haven't checked back to see if AVN has the requisite authority, but I'll bet they do). Separately within that RNS, declining revenue numbers show exactly how absolutely vital Hylas-4 is to the company still having a viable future. Let's all hope it's neither too little, nor too late. The above AIMO, but God knows what else they can possibly have got planned to raise required funds...
Just to respond to your point....there are plenty of tech savvy directors on the books. Andy Green for one. Check out his CV. Besides, saving �nearly �3/4million from the executive pay trough should not be scoffed at !
"Following the successful launch and commissioning of HYLAS 4, David Bestwick, co-founder and Technical Director, will retire from the business and step down from the Board at the end of June 2018" I have a suspicion that they're clearing the decks of non-essentials. Why would you no longer need a Technical Director? Not so much avanti as dietro. Mixed message regarding finance 'continue to pursue - expect' usual RNS gibberish and equivocation. I don't see Avanti continuing for long and Paul Walsh is tidying up. Of course, Dave Bestwick may have just landed superb job offer but I doubt it.
Taken from the RNS :- The Company continues to pursue multiple lines of funding to complement the restructuring which the Board expects to conclude positively in the short to medium term
Hearing through RNS that AVN were looking to raise somewhere between $50m and $90m via a placement would be an especially welcome piece of news. At least it'd mean that they were doing something. However, I'm not sure how pleased the ex-bondholders would be to see a further billion or more shares hit the market? That'd represent an instant and significant dilution of their 92.5% holdings... by roughly one third, I think. (I'm presuming a very optimistic placement price of 4.5p = 6.0 cents. Say AVN needs $60m to keep the maths easy... that'd be a billion new shares which I think would represent roughly a 50% increase in the total number of shares, following the 12.33 times recent increase as per the D4E swap - hence the 33% dilution figure I mention above.) However, it's late and I'm tired, so that speculative maths of mine would definitely be well worth others checking and verifying.
Share price drops - AVN Issue more shares - Ex Bondholders Grab em at reduced price - AVN have cash in hand - H4 revenues generated - AVN Flourish - SP Rises - we all get rich !! Hoorah !!!
I'll agree with WO that H4 is supremely relevant. AVN clearly hasn't been able to secure enough revenue through its existing assets, so H4 is kind of its last hurrah. It's newer tech and eminently sensibly located in terms of footprints, so that's good, at least. And yes, H4's launch was considerably late, but the issue is, is it too late? AVN in is a bit of a nightmarish chicken and egg situation where it can't survive without substantially increased revenues (something that, as above, H4 may well help it to secure). But that nightmarish situation is widely known, so therefore potential customers may well be nervous about contractually committing to H4, due to their evaluation of operator stability... Where I disagree with WO is that I too believe that AVN, having suddenly announced a "game over" funding shortfall on Apr 9th that needs resolving by Jun 30th, very definitely needs to update the market as to its progress on sorting this out. The fact that, since announcing that bombshell, AVN has said absolutely nothing further about the matter is the single biggest concern IMV.
...a valid reason as to why the AVN board, having announced the doomsday countdown on Apr 9th by RNS, have said absolutely nothing since??? (Apart from the "don't want to think about it" possibility that they actually haven't got any resolution to their funding needs to announce, that is). SP sliding nastily south and 32 days to go... tick tock. Surely they have to say SOMETHING? And pretty damn soon?
Its still seems very strange to me that the bondholders would have given up their preferential position without knowing there was some hope for the business to make a go of it. If they honestly felt the business would fail two months after the D4E deal then they would have had a better chance getting something from insolvency when they were still bond holders. Unless AVN didn't have to provide this insight for the deal and the bondholders took the option expecting a far better situation to follow...