Has this been posted before? It has some interesting quotes from KE and Tlou.
"In its bid, KEB proposed that government provide a credit-enhancement mechanism to make the project bankable."
That is the closest demand to my memory of KEB demanding a sizeable order in the early days.
"Gilby meanwhile said Tlou’s proposal had received the highest pass mark at the compliance and technical stage, while it had also been the most competitive for cost of energy."
That will appeal if Botswana new minister is as cost concious as the previous one "as long as it is affordable" was his quote.
It is unbelievable in 2020 that there is so much ignorance on what a proposal and an agreement are!
RFP - request for proposal - resulted in Sekaname proposing they supply up to 100Mw of the 100Mw requirement, whilst Tlou proposed 2Mw up to 10Mw!
The RFP process was done and dusted ages ago - both were acceptable (2nd time round) with 97Mw and 3Mw the compromise offered. They were both suspoended first time because proposals were only wanted from companies who already had a history of supplying CBM power to Botswana - an impossibility even now!
The next stage was a PPA - power purchase agreement - individual agreements with each company presumably getting into the nitty gritty of price, timings, durations etc .
Botswana, represented by Minister Eric Molale , announced full support for both companies subject to them proving CBM is viable in Botswana (proof of adequate supplies was stated) because his ministry had been told they were not!!!!
The generators are known to work if provided with adequate gas , and distribution lines are pretty straightforward, so his concern could only be inadequate gas flows!
TG's opponents blame him for not getting the agreement before proving our flows.
And the Govt for not issuing a PPA before getting the proof they desire!
This is so obvious but some are claiming gas flows were not mentioned as a prequisite for the RFP!
Talk about stupid!
I wonder if they'd be interested in financing something which is beyond the feasibility stage?
Production well needing further wells to speed up dewatering might be attractive.
The Zambian grant was for 10Mw+ so perhaps 10Mw- isn't too small fry?
Today, the U.S. Government through the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) signed a grant with Kalahari GeoEnergy Limited, a Zambian geothermal development company,
for a feasibility study supporting a 10-20 megawatt geothermal power project. California-based
Geologica Geothermal Group was selected by Kalahari GeoEnergy to carry out the study which will provide technical and environmental analyses needed to advance the project.
Mar 17, 2020
Strategic engagement will create opportunities for U.S. companies
(Gaborone, Botswana) – Today, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency awarded a grant to Kalahari Energy Botswana
for a feasibility study of a power plant that will generate up to 100 megawatts of electricity using
indigenous coalbed methane.
In 2017 Kalahari Energy, as the project owner, appointed Prana Energy (www.pranaenergy.co.za) as Project Developer to facilitate its response to the closed tender RFP and delivery of the subsequent project award through to financial close. Prana Energy leads an experienced international project development team with a proven track record of delivering successful natural gas and CBM projects, comprising (amongst others):
Owners Team Consultation (www.ownerteamconsult.com) – conceptual design engineering and project management;
Advanced Resources International Inc (www.ari-res.com) – reservoir modelling and well-field design;
Eaglestone Capital (www.eaglestone.eu) – financial modelling, capital structuring and fund-raising; and
Ecosurv (www.ecosurv.com) – leading the EISA process on behalf of Kalahari Energy.
Prana seem more into Solar and Wind than CBM and the list above does not include hands on experience in CBM like Arrow and Sunshine .... Prana is less secret than Sekaname so maybe there is more on CBM than I have found so far.
Botswana look to be in good shape with their preferred bidders. Solar and wind is in vogue and Prana fits that bill, and TLOU have CBM experience.
Has anybody found a value for the feasibility study grants? Chukkers?
Grant sounds like a gift rather than a loan? It was for students years ago , and student loans are repayable by a select few?
Getting a PPA before commercial flows is akin to having chemo before you catch cancer imho!
Why does nobody that .... note to self ... you must stop posting! you must stop posting!
RRE's chart looks like Ayers "rock" to me! Oil looks a good area to invest in with non-electric vehicles due to be phased out. Over production already, bodes well? CBM v Oil long term is going to the next Hunger games film no doubt.
note to self ... you must stop posting! you must stop posting!
DTE , why 12 months? It is all about survival, the period is a total unknown.
Once there is a vaccine it is going to take a long time to bring it online across the globe.
I wonder if I was given the choice of definitely catching it and living or dying in within a fortnight , i.e. all over one way or the other, as opposed to living the rest of my days trying to avoid the unavoidable ....... would I take it? Dividing up the world into millions of small communities and doing it seems foolproof. The survivors would either not have it or have some immunity in just a few days!
I sold my Asiamet holding DTE so you are probably right knowing my luck :O)
I am content that TG is my oncologist, he hasn't put a foot wrong iimho.
Olda and Chris will hope you are right. And Olda called Sirius right! I wish I had sold when he voiced his opinion on them to me. TG is no Chris Fraser I hope.
He hates diluting shares for a start , CF not only loved doing it but gave them away!
Lordy, if chemotherapy takes a year it takes a year! Would you criticise your oncologist after 6 months?
Dewatering takes up to several years on a new site. In a healthy world taking extra time to dewater would be good (more gas) ... but when money is running short, not so!
Tlou are redirecting their planned electricity for the grid (and a planned PPA) , towards a self sufficient dewatering process. Why can't you see it is inspired? If the gas come soon we have lost very little , it will be redirected back to original plan, and if it takes ages we are still alive and kicking.
Mother in law said why is common sense so rare? She was inspired too!
Whizzer I wish you luck in finding a better prospect than TLOU in today's markets.
There are a few sectors which are possibly safe but which company within those sectors is the $64M question. Guessing right which pharma develops a vaccine against coronavirus is a banker.
I have filtered Don Quixote who is the stimulus for much of my posting , I am going to take a back seat , because I have said more than my piece here.
Afaik , TG has a plan that means TLOU can continue dewatering at minimal cost for the indefinite future.
Once it completes there will be a metamorphosis in Botswana - gas will (hopefully) become commercial and Botswana will be able to honour it's promises - subject to the virus is under control.
Funds of $10M is enough at current estimates to prove CBM is viable. $10M or even $30m is peanuts compared to e.g. UK company debt for their 80% of salary hand-outs (if they survive at all). In the circumstances I reckon our board have done blooming well.
Long may Botswana remain virus free. The choice of Botswana may prove to be genius!
1:38 was the last trade today.
Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
13:38:58 26-Mar-2020 1.41 GBX 12,158 171.43 Off-book AIMX
12:07:52 26-Mar-2020 1.55 GBX 83,455 1,293.55 Off-book AIMX
10:49:31 26-Mar-2020 1.54 GBX 63,951 988.04 Off-book AIMX
10:06:32 26-Mar-2020 1.51 GBX 13,236 200.00 Off-book AIMX
09:03:32 26-Mar-2020 1.40 GBX 10,957 153.40 Off-book AIMX
Not sure what yahoo are saying tbh ....
In case someone other than Don Quixote did not understand where I was coming from earlier....
my point was if you have an asset worth , say, £15000 and you see advertisements everywhere for the same item in the same condition in the wanted columns for £10000 - it is bound to make you wonder if your valuation is over the top!
And if then you see someone is offering £12000 you might be tempted to grab it while it is there.
If you then pick up a respected journal and see one for £16000 , your confidence is restored, or you are annoyed if you did sell below £15000. If unqualified friends tell you are over valuing the item you get the scenario for TLOU being 1p+ instead of 10p+! The sells reinforce the mistake because they are genuine prices.
Fatuous offers for our shares determine the spread , the spread in trading hours determine the current mid-price sp.
The respected journal is the closing price, which is based on actual trades! i.e. real money!
I rest my case!
My whole position is summed up in my earlier post.
As is Tony's afaik , there isn't too many ways of repeating the message - but too many expect him to do just that. No trades on ASX again keeping the 4c close intact. During trading I am losing an £2k or more but at the close that cash reappears. I don't think brokers should revalue your portfolio if there are no trades - it is conducive to inexperienced people selling for no good reason .... hence my constant whinging to stop them doing it. Add negative posters encouraging people to sell their golden tickets, and you get the low sp!
Kalahari's approach is very different to ours.
I never found it again, but I am 100% certain that I read that they insisted upon a large PPA before they'd agree to enter the frame. Hence 97Mw though it was never clear how much they required.
It seems likely a 50Mw - 50Mw would have satisfied them , but TG never wanted to commit us to 1917/18/19 prices and was perfectly happy with 2M to 10Mw because he knows that finding a market for future power is the least o his worries .... and the 1920+ prices will outstrip the early one as was proven by MM's post earlier!
If Kalahari had a PPA before that for their 97Mw it might have cost them dear?
If we get commercial rates it makes their chances of repeating the feat fairly good subject to them having the same expertise. If the science works for us it will likely work for them - and Botswana will be in good shape. I hope they see it this way.
If they do , finding the $10m is worth risking but who would risk it whilst there is any doubt that commercial rates are achievable. My stance has always been they are virtually certain which is why I am on my way to the next million shares for the benefit of the nearest dog's home or whereever my will is directed. It is not blind faith in TG - it is wide-eyed faith in the science and economics behind CBM is Botswana that I share with him.
For newcomers - he left Australia because the red tape around CBM production is horrendous there for a price of $10-$12 AUD. In Botswana they are paying $30 AUD equivalent currently and the red tape is xpected to be less.
All we need is for the dewatering process to conclude at Lesedi , the gas to follow the established pattern of building to a peak from there , and this company will be rolling!
Drying up wells for the first time in history can take years - but the more water there is the more gas is expected to flow. We aren't a year yet into dewatering it can takes years! You'd think in the desert it would be shorter than most places - the main reason for disappointment and a share price below 2p! TG has said he is trying to maintain shareholder value , as he did at two CBM ventures in Australia. I believe that too! I think this is a no brainer.
Hi Chuk, posted before I read your post.
Do we know they are talking to Kalahari?
The recent news is more to do with a third party - the USA.
Tlou are rightly concentrating upon Botswana who sound as if they are fully behind us.
But being behind us does not mean they can give us something for nothing.
We need to prove that up to $30M will be going to a company which will pay off. And promising early gas flows , giving the sentiment long term flows will be commercial, is essential to do that surely? The science behind it 100% positive, but is not proven in Botswana.
The sickening thing is we will prove the viability for the benefit of Kalahari!
Sirius set everything up for Anglo - equally sickening that they got a 15p to 50p share for a mere 5.5p but Kalahari is not going to takes over there is room for both them and us.
Imho by the time they reach 93Mw we'll have been operational for a long while and won't be far behind if we are behind at all. All subject to that vaccine allowing anything to progress ( or Botswana shutting it out - unlikely I'd guess).
The best hospit
Your second post mentions CBM but the focus is on RENEWABLE energy i.e. Solar and Wind
Tendering for 100Mw of solar , ignoring wind , but quoting 130Mw minimum within 2 years is very interesting.
I'd like to think the discrepancy is all down to TLOU i.e. 10Mw of CBM, and 20Mw of Solar power ..... and 2 years might be very feasible if they discover a vaccine for Coronavirus - probably THE research project of the century .....
MM, Winston once said "we are at war with Germany" , events change in time.
Don't you think TG responded when both sides thought #4 and #3 gas was going into the grid, and Botswana wanted to expedite that?
It isn't in the short term - both sides know that - so why would Botswana be treating temporary PPA (that we are not in a position to agree) with urgency as if it is going to happen any day soon?
"we have agreed to get into discussions for a temporary Power Purchase Agreement that would enable your organization to provide power on a pilot/proof of concept approach while negotiations for the full PPA are ongoing. "
MM, your link is over a month old, and not much water has passed under the bridge since, it seems - not enough to produce commercial gas for sure.
I fail to see how a PPA , temporary or otherwise, is possible if we are not going to supply the grid with electricity.
And we are going to use any electricity we produce as the means to continue dewatering using that power - maybe subject to permission?
Powering pumps etc may well provide "proof of concept" - like Selemo has - but our approach "doth butter no parsnips" as Joe Lycett might observe.
Don't take my view as being doom and gloom - I still believe in TG (and bought more today) - but I think you should stop repeating news that is dubious as if it is gospel.
My belief is TG has put us on hold until stage 2 , generating a supply to the grid , building distribution network, and extending the number of wells is possible.
Being self sufficient until then is what he is proposing?
And when we get there - will coronavirus allow us to resume full speed?
My hope is for the water to cease enough that we don't need the power to dewater from #3 and #4 - the corresponding power rise is the proof Botswana have eagerly anticipated - funding results and we are able to resume stage 2 and beyond. This could happen anytime in the future - but we look to be prepared for it imho.
Don't know how long it will survive but it is still there currently.
If you like a joke , we had a top quality , imho , poster there.
While we wait for some truly positive news you can see if you disagree.# here
IG have increased their minimum trade from £60 to £90 which is not helpful.
A trade that was struck on 26th Feb and settled on 2nd March shows as both a February and a March deal on different histories. To play safe I wanted to do a small trade to guarantee my £3 frequent trader status for April (a 3rd trade in March).