When I read this message I thought it was a call to sack Simon Thompson from Investors Chronicle
Rosenblatt enjoys record year.
Earnings upgrades for 2020 and 2021.
RBG (RBGP: 75p), a professional services group that owns law firm Rosenblatt, a nascent litigation funding arm and specialist finance boutique Convex Capital, has posted a 5 per cent earnings’ beat and declared a final dividend of 3p a share. Closing net cash of £3.5m was materially better than analysts’ net debt estimate of £1.1m.
Rosenblatt enjoyed its best year ever, increasing underlying revenue by 14 per cent to £20.7m and earning a gross margin above 40 per cent. Both its corporate and employment legal divisions enjoyed robust trading, so much so that house broker N+1 Singer predicts corporate revenues more than doubled to £4.4m. The trading backdrop remains favourable for Rosenblatt’s legal eagles, who specialise in litigious/contentious work. Furthermore, one consequence of the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic is increased white collar crime & fraud, another area of Rosenblatt’s expertise. Interestingly, although N+1 Singer have raised Rosenblatt’s 2021 revenue forecast by five per cent to £21.6m to acknowledge the momentum, analysts are “still keeping a level of conservatism in the numbers.”
RBG’s other two smaller divisions are starting to fire too. Convex completed three deals in 2020 which brought in fees of around £1.6m, but fee income could easily double in 2021. That’s because Convex is working on a pipeline of more than 20 corporate deals, and has already completed one in the past few weeks. RBG’s litigation finance arm LionFish concluded £3.2m of asset realisations and N+1 Singer expects a similar outcome this year.
On this basis, expect 2020 group cash profit of £7.1m (post a 5 per cent upgrade) to surge to £9.4m in 2021 on 10 per cent higher revenue of £28m to deliver a similar rise in pre-tax profit to £7.7m. Analysts also upgraded their 2021 EPS estimates by 7 per cent to 7.3p, up from 5.3p in 2020, and raised their 2021 pay-out forecast from 4.1p to 4.4p.
RBG’s shares are up 10 per cent on my 68p entry point (Alpha Report: ‘Back a winning legal team’, 2 June 2020), and still offer great value on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 10. A prospective dividend yield of 5.9 per cent is attractive, too, and I maintain my 100p target price. Buy.
The Holy Grail for investors is to identify companies with potential to turn an early-stage recovery story into a multi-month earnings upgrade cycle, so forcing analysts to repeatedly upgrade their earnings estimates. In turn, investors have a habit of paying a higher price for a slice of the action so you can benefit from earnings multiple expansion, too. It therefore pays to know the precise profit drivers to look out for, I certainly do having dedicated several chapters and case studies to this very subject in both of my books.
Areas of interest include a company’s position within its market and whether industry demand (both cyclical and structural) is creating a tailwind to ride off. Understanding operational leverage is important to ascertain the extent to which profits can accelerate as revenue ratchets up. I also take a close look at cash generation and working capital management to identify enterprises that recycle operating cash flow back into their businesses either through organic investment or bolt-on acquisitions to create shareholder value.
It certainly pays to embrace technological change and keep an eye on macroeconomic and political factors that may impact performance. Many of these dynamics are at play with the five companies I highlight below. It’s no coincidence that they have all just posted earnings beats.
Gresham House obliterates forecasts
£1bn of organic assets under management inflows in 2020.
Double-digit earnings upgrades for 2020 and 2021.
Gresham House (GHE:810p), a fund manager specialising in renewable energy generation, solar power, wind, forestry, infrastructure funds and public and private equity investment strategies, has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates, and prompted hefty upgrades.
Assets under management (AUM) increased by an eye-catching 42 per cent from £2.8bn to £3.9bn in 2020, or 15 per cent above investment bank Jefferies forecast, buoyed by £1bn of organic inflows. The addition of £640m of AUM in the second half included £266m of capital raises for Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID), Gresham House Forest Fund I LP and the group’s Baronsmead VCTs.
Tight industry pricing, ongoing demand from housebuilders and healthy investment returns are supporting interest in Gresham House’s forestry funds. Moreover, with the benefit of a strong balance sheet – estimated net cash of £21.8m at the 2020 financial year-end – Gresham has been making strategic and complementary bolt-on acquisitions. The proposed earnings accretive acquisition of Republic of Ireland-based Appian Asset Management for an initial consideration of €4.55m (£4m) adds AUM of €330m including a forestry portfolio. Appian plans to launch a social housing fund in Ireland that is complementary to Gresham House's Residential Secure Income LP fund, targeting the shared ownership housing market and aiming to unlock a supply of more affordable houses. This highlights Gresham House’s ESG credentials as do investments in
I was always afraid of this. We loose everything!
Its really a question of whether or not it will survive in its present form. I've seen so many of these Telecos taken out by the bond holders leaving PIs with nothing
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