Scancell founder says the company is ready to commercialise novel medicines to counteract cancer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Evening all, hope everyone's doing well.
An interesting week! The placing price was shocking, to be honest - absolutely rampant insider dealing. Hopefully it gets investigated, but I'm not holding my breath.
However, the ~19% equity dilution pain should be more than offset but this transformative cash injection. The company will be able to run three - and possibly four - Phase I human trials next year from its in-house pipeline. A positive readout from its pro-dox trial will transform Avacta, in my view, into a billion (and more likely, multi-billion) pound company overnight. That read-out is less than 12 months away.
I personally think Avacta will generate hundreds of millions of dollars throughout the rest of this year in COVID-19 test sales. However, even if that doesn't occur, I still think the billion pound valuation is not just a possibility, but probable, within the next 12 months.
I bought more shares today, but not enough to retain a 1% holding after the dilution. Now hold ~0.9%, but delighted in the knowledge that I hold a smaller slice of what will ultimately be a much larger pie, and in a much shorter timeframe than I had assumed yesterday.
I've finished writing Part 2 of the three-part Update Note, covering the possibility of Avacta securing a major partner to develop an Affimer-based neutralising therapy for COVID-19:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/avacta-group-update-ii-part-ii.pdf
Planning to finish Part 3 by the end of next week. It'll cover valuation analysis and an updated Investment Thesis.
Hope it helps!
Other notes viewable here:
https://aimchaos.com/
All notes: https://aimchaos.com
Thanks dude! thanks for sharing.
Appreciate your research, thank you.
Thank you myles, finally someone with something worthwhile to say instead of the pond life trying to cast doubt over a solid investment opportunity
Thanks Myles - appreciate your work.
Ophidian
Myles, the placing was a shock, but logical. I believe AS is a smart CEO andappreciates that there is still potential for the POC Covid test to fall flatter than people expect because since it is an antigen test, it will not be sensitive enough in clinical settings (a limitation of antigen testing) so would simply become a pre-screening test before a more accurate PCR test is taken. This is even the use case description in the investor literature (May 22nd) of their closest competitor, Sona Nantech, who are already in POC test validation. AS hedged his bets - raise the money from placing now to fully fund the precision cancer treatment trials to completion before the final results of the POC test development and validation come out, since could be not so good as everyone has been lead to believe.
Stick with genedrive if your happy with it, better still why dont you hedge your bets, dont need to try finding floors that arent there to improve your real shares you hold deary deary me.....
Myles, your part 2 research was concentrated on the potential around Neutralising therapy that AVCT is working on.
I think many are invested for the saliva based POC test kit which can have global demand across every sector to open up the economy. But based on the RNS from today and from your update, it appears like we are now talking about the potential with Neutralising therapy rather than the saliva based POC kit?
There is already a saliva based test kit with FDA EUA. Any thoughts on how AVCT is poised compared to the competitors on the saliva based POC kit?
Myles thankyou so much, what an amazing in depth report
I don't understand most of it however what I do get is that have done right thing staying and increasing my holdings since 2013. Could defo be lifechanging profit for me in year or so. Again thankyou for your generosity in sharing your knowledge
Flyingmachine, it’s clear AS sees a huge market for the POC and consumer LFT. We all do. A few sensible people have pointed out the need to balance the sensitivity expectations (PL75, BBN). AS just said it again in the Finncap interview released today (views increasing quickly to 769 now). This is a mass screening test. Those who test positive will get tested again and those negative will get on with their life work. The bar isn’t that high (80%) so anything above 90% and I think there will be huge interest.
Given the most recent timeline in the interview the performance of the LFT is due in the next few days. I expect these lab results to be very very good given the control around them.
Shout out to Ophidian who also said the BAMS test could be better than PCR. Now that would be something!
Please don’t refer to me as sensible, I’d hate to get a reputation.
Sir Al also alluded to BAMS being better than PCR in the YouTube video. Imagine that... ‘the best’ antigen test and ‘the best’ clinical test to boot.
Agree completely that the raise was a no brainer, and appears to be timed well. Anybody who has lost faith in the management because of this clearly isn't thinking straight. Im not so certain on the remuneration arrangements for CEO and CFO, but who knows what targets are attached to them so I'll withold judgement.
What is poor, and more so for you Myles given the size of your holding is the the way it has unfolded. There's many parties involved in this so wouldn't stick the knife to the CEO just yet, but somebody knew about this on Monday and how it played out was appalling.
Myles thank you so much for your updated report, looking forward to part 3
One question please;
Re:' An interesting week! The placing price was shocking, to be honest - absolutely rampant insider dealing. Hopefully it gets investigated, but I'm not holding my breath.'
Why in your opinion was the placing price, 'Shocking' given a recent high of £2.00+++, were you expecting a higher placing price than £1.20? it is it not based upon a weighted average price over a specified period of time?
Forgive my ignorance, but Re: ' absolutely rampant insider dealing. ' can you please explain/expand your conclusions on your thoughts?
Many thanks, JB
Thank you, an interesting analysis.
Thank you Myles! Very useful and complete analysis.