700 may even be a little conservative- From the FT The 5 analysts offering 12 month price targets for RWS Holdings plc have a median target of 761.00, with a high estimate of 810.00 and a low estimate of 690.00. The median estimate represents a 34.69% increase from the last price of 565.00.
It does seem to be gaining some upwards momentum again. I top sliced when it hit 690 in late April but have been building up again in the lows as it has clearly been oversold (in my opinion!). Added some more over the past couple of days, however, the Director buy prompted me to top slice my RTO holding and put a good tranche in here first thing. At the time they had an almost identical share price but RWS looks to be on a roll and is already ahead, it could easily make 700 again if the results in October are reasonable.
FT- The 11 analysts offering 12 month price targets for National Express Group PLC have a median target of 340.00, with a high estimate of 360.00 and a low estimate of 270.00. The median estimate represents a 25.00% increase from the last price of 272.00.
But if you are vaccinated, then the latest PHE data indicates that the risk of hospitalisations is marginally reduced for Delta compared to Alpha. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for Alpha and Delta variants Dose 2, Alpha 93 (80-97) Delta 96 (91-98)
The increase in volume over the past week looks like someone has been reducing. I topped up with some more today as it must be getting near the bottom of this dip, will add a bit more if it does fall further, at some point the discount will reduce as it must be nearly 10% more than its long term historical average.
Nice rise today on the back of the results. It does make you wonder why Aviva and Fidelity sold nearly a quarter of their holdings earlier in the year driving the price down. Still, their loss was my gain so I should not complain.
RE: Half year Results looking strong!29 Jul 2021 11:23
US and Alsa look OK, so it is only the UK which is possibly a bit less positive, probably not helped by the talk of low cost competition (assumedly this is what Librium was referring to when the dropped their target price to 340).This was addressed in the Q&A’s, they seemed fairly relaxed about it, arguing that it helps promote buses over trains and that Flix (the low cost operator) cannot continue discount below cost in the longer term. They also flagged Nex’s scale (10x that of all of the competition) which is coming into play as more routes are opened up. The competition in Spain mentioned by Librium is more from rail, but they are looking to adjust schedules and routes and stops to both mitigate and take advantage of this. They seem fairly bullish about opportunities to expand in several places- something they have clearly been looking at, with Italy mentioned for the first time along with the bid’s we know they already have in in Chile and the Middle East. Still, rather surprised by the initial reaction, seems overdone, especially with the situation improving here.
Look really good, especially the profit figures. M&A looks strong, this was also mentioned in Rollins Q&A where they said it was to do with potential tax changes in the US which was generating opportunities. France work wear etc was better than I had expected, this will help set it up for it's probable sale this year or next.
Surely it will be up today on these results? It is not like they had a bad year last year to make these results flatter.
RE: How likely another lockdown uk26 Jul 2021 16:34
I do not think that you will be getting any divi's until after next April when the grant from the UK ceases. The last full years div was 14 p - the sp has gone up nearly 40p in the past week, I am quite happy settling for capital gain at the moment. From Rol's interims 'One of the terms of the DfT grants is that bus companies may not pay dividends as long as the grant regime is in place. Accordingly, it will be necessary for the DfT grant regime to have ceased and normal bus operation to have re-commenced successfully before the Board may consider the resumption of dividend payments.'
I kept trickling a bit in during the lows so it has been nice to see it coming back up ahead of the results this week. The Q1 results were OK but the balance between loss of income from lockdowns (in particular French workwear) and revenues from disinfection services this quarter that is hard to call.
Vaccinations in UK, US Spain and Morocco23 Jul 2021 16:49
It is starting to look like the UK has passed peak infections, at least before the most recent opening of nightclubs etc kick in.
If you had to pick some countries that had the potential to recover due to good vaccination rates, then those that nex operates in are not a bad selection. Beyond the UK, Spain is one of the least vaccine hesitant in Europe which should help going forward. The US is perhaps not the best! but it is vaccinating 12+ which is what is going to be the most important for school buses usage. Morocco is the most vaccinated country in Africa, with a structured vaccination program and a relative young population it should be in a better place than many to handle the current wave from Delta.
Early days but it is starting to look like the sentiment, which took a knock with Delta, is changing. We are now in a good position to meet or exceed Nex's base scenario (see the annual report for details) this was also indicated in their May update and is certainly much better than the worse case scenario they modelled (which would still have left them solvent). It looks like others may be agreeing as there was not as much profit taking this afternoon as I had expected. It is going to be interesting to see where this is at the end of next week after the results.
I am doubly happy today, one of the small caps I sold the other day to add more here was Trist which is down nearly 10% today. Almost all down to luck but it is nice when it all goes the right way (for a change...)
You clearly did not look very hard! rns 19th Nov 20202
Further to its announcement on 17 November 2020, National Express Group PLC announces that it has launched and successfully priced a £500 million 4.250% hybrid instrument, with an order book from investors approximately 8x oversubscribed. The Reg S GBP PerpNC5.25 hybrid has been rated Ba1 by Moody's and BB+ by Fitch (with 50% equity credit from both). The net proceeds of the offering will be used to partly refinance existing debt. The hybrid instrument (accounted for as 100% equity under IFRS) reinforces the Group's balance sheet strength, creates significantly more gearing and interest cover covenant headroom, supports the Group's investment grade credit rating and provides ongoing financial flexibility to position the business strongly through 2021 and beyond. The offering will accelerate a reduction in gearing towards the Group's target range of 1.5-2.0x. Both Moody's and Fitch have reaffirmed the Group's investment grade credit rating including consideration for the issuance of the hybrid instrument. Further details - http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/3469G_1-2020-11-24.pdf
I cashed in a couple of small caps that have been holding up well and rightly or wrongly added more here. It is worth having a look at Rotala's (Rol) results which are out today for a good overview of the uk bus situation re-grants and trade.