Member Info for Monkshood

If you want a reliable source for US air traffic numbers then look at -

https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

You need to be careful when comparing comparable dates because of w/e and holidays.

I think that they question is did they go on to sell the volumes that they booked in advance, in which case they have just bought income forward, if not, then they have booked income that in practice they will never receive which is a much larger problem.

Article in the Times today.

As well as adding land, Chapel Down is planning a larger winery on the outskirts of Canterbury to cater for its growth ambitions. Although the project has twice been approved by the city council, it has faced appeals at every step of the way. The resulting limbo period has left the company looking at other options to deliver the winemaking capacity it needs in the next few years. Pennefather says the company has found “some compelling options”, which he plans to update the market on before the end of the quarter.

Better known as InMotion in the US - largest airport electronics retailer.

Assumedly if this also happened in previous year then the income would have been pulled out of this year, so it is hard to see that it will roll back with direct financial consequences to previous years.

I do wonder if the mistake was possibly a consequence of a much higher than typical forward purchasing in an attempt to avoid tariffs.

Bloomberg-

''Growing worries that artificial intelligence tools could soon disrupt the world’s biggest software businesses are sparking a selloff across the sector.''

Taser - They have marked down all of Dowgate's estimates for this year in these projections.

Turnover $94m , PBT $10.2m with an adjusted eps of 39.4c

Canaccord's research note is worth a read, 35 pages in all. There are details, that even after many years of investing in WI, that I did not know (mainly because they are very poor at company presentations to retail investors of their results!)

The simple take away for investors is -

''We initiate coverage of Water Intelligence with a BUY rating and a 12-month price target of 500p. This implies more than 60% upside to the current share price. Longer-term, we see a route to 900p+ based on a re-rating towards higher US water-tech peer multiples, if growth plans and a higher quality of earnings are successfully delivered.''

Look at slide 16 (capital allocation) from their latest presentation to see how they view, buybacks vers investments.

You pays your money and takes your choice with the brokers.... (from -AIC web site)

Stifel’s Iain Scouller said: “The share price has recovered around 20% from its low point in April. However, this is a disappointing set of results given the size of the NAV fall, decline in dividend cover, and given that we think the discount is vulnerable to widening. On a c.25% discount the shares would trade at 110p, with a dividend yield of 9.4%.”

In a report today, Stifel downgraded the wind fund sector to “negative”, suggesting investors trim their exposure to UKW, Greencoat Renewables and Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) on the back of weak generation, falling dividend cover and declining NAVs.

Investec analyst Ben Newell cautiously retained his “buy” rating: “We calculate that the company trades on a modest EV/EBITDA [enterprise value/underlying earnings] (last 12 months) multiple of c.9.0x, and a prospective steady state return at the current share price of over 12% pa. We believe this remains attractive, although we would highlight that this return is predicated on cashflow generation being in line with the budget per the NAV.”

Winterflood’s Ashley Thomas was also positive: “UKW retains a relatively strong level of dividend cover (in part due to non-amortising debt structure) and while H1 dividend cover was only 1.4x, the five-year forecast dividend cover is 1.9x.”

I guess it is just about having a diversified range of assets.

In the early part of the year, when the wind was atypically, for a long period, predominantly from the NE, it was reasonably windy in the SE. There was however, almost no wind to the NW of the country, the area which is often one of the windiest. I would think that the Thames Array made a good contribution at a time when energy prices were high.

If you only have assets in one area (the windiest) then your maximum production would always be at a time when the prices were the lowest. There is also the problem of knowing if the windiest sites now, will still be the windiest, in 10 years time...

The Hornsea debt is amortising, the rest is not.

Suggest you watch todays webcast as they covered this topic in the Q&A's

I got the impression that they are now looking at how they can add new assets without the share price being above nav. INPP are essentially doing this with Sizewell C.

The proposed site was adjacent to a large Gomez fruit packing/distribution center.

Gomez closed the site in December 2023, the local objectors to the winery said that CD should develop this site rather than build a 'green field' development. The old Gomez site has now been sold, and subsequently leased, for 15 years to another fruit growing/packing company, meaning that this site can no longer be held up as an alternative.

Whilst this was not the main reason for the (protracted) judicial review, it does strengthen the case for CD's winery as originally proposed.

Presentation is there-

https://wp-surfacetransforms-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/07/Surface-Transforms-AGM-2025-web-version.pdf

Nothing new, other than Equity conversion unlikely (although the option was a special resolution in the agm).

Broker comment-

''Zeus estimates will be restored with further progress: Our unpublished draft cash modelling indicates EBITDA breakeven at the current yield and production run rates by year-end. We judge that £1m of gross cash guided by Surface is achievable (and this includes a significant planned repayment of customer advances). Risks include operational performance and the liquidity position. ''

That is about the most positive one from SCE that I have read in quite some time.

Topped up my (very in the red) holding yesterday, hopefully will start to see a rerate from now on, but a long way to go before I recover my losses on this!

It's across the board for infrastructure .

I guess its because the employment numbers and retail figures out today are indicating a slowing down = faster and more interest rate cuts + lower inflation.

It all feeds into the discount rate applied to infrastructure trusts.

Dox was used as a control arm in another trial. The patents responded well to the dox control, this would now become the control that AVA6000 would be measured against. The median point was 8 months, so to be better the trial would have to extend well beyond this. The longer the trail the greater the cost, hence the switch in target.

Ironically, for patients with STS, it is likely that AVA6000 would be a very good treatment.

Every other rise for quite some time has been sold into.

I did wonder if this was from one of the ex directors following changes to the IHT changes around AIM shares?

It is possible that the sell overhang has finally been lifted, which means that any buying is giving some big rises in what is a fairly illiquid stock.

Trotsky- apologies, I have only just seen your question.

Prior to 2020 they only gave a PY on their factsheets, PY was around 7.5% at this time.

By the end of the year, they were giving both a MtM and PY value - at this time the PY was about 0.5% higher than MtM (still around 7.5%)

So, the situation of having higher PY than MtM, does not seem to be just a function of previous higher interest rates, although I would imagine that it must come into play to some extent.

I have read that it can be because of the unwind some of the financial protections that are built into ABS, but the topic would be a good one to query at the next investor Q&A.

Nice to see that as well as the share price moving to a premium, the Nav has put on 2.27 over the past month .

I am not sure what the impact will be (hopefully positive!), but yesterday, Bloomberg reported -

'The European Commission is considering reducing the capital that insurers must hold against investments in asset-backed securities, part of a broader effort to revive a €1.2 trillion ($1.4 trillion) market that can finance areas like housing, energy, and defence'