Member Info for Monkshood

I had thinned down some of my Frontiers/EM holdings but kept this as I felt that the types of things UEM invests in would be reasonably 'Trump resistant'.

It had started to bounce back a bit with the fall in the dollar and an uptick in Brazil, but Saba's interest has really put a rocket under it.

Not sure what it means for the longer term though - once their interest is over does the discount just widen again?

The gov. figures are an average for the country so also covers the W/ NW, where I guess it has been less windy.

UKW assets are spread around so no idea how it plays out in terms of generation, but the two number are typically not that different.

I can sympathise, I was in the same boat with BGGI for a while, but that panned out OK in the end. Fortunately, I got out of UKW when it was on a high and only bought back in more recently, a current small capital loss has already been covered by the divi with another to come next month.

Down 19% in April on the 20 year long term average.

I thought it may have been less than this as we seemed to have a fairly steady NE breeze most of the month (in the SE), but I guess the lack of westerlies had a bigger impact on the other side of the country.

Thanks.

Does anyone know where the link to register for the webcast ?

The one they use just loops back to their rns page.

It was todays broker note based on this update.

Whilst I appreciate that house brokers do put results in a positive light, the numbers have not changed since the note in Feb and have been upgraded since the one last year.

Broker notes have not changed since the one issued in Feb this year.

These were ahead of those at H1 2024 (for 2025E) with revenues now expected to be $97m compared to a previous expected $87.5. Adjusted operating profit expected to be $12.7m compared to $11.9m.

Given the house brokers talk with the company they should be reasonably representative,. You cannot say that there was anything particularly a surprise in these results.

It won't set it alight, but a reasonably OK trading update, which should help move the share price in the right direction.

I did make a mistake in that revenue target was £27M, now down to £23M which makes it more realistic (£30M was for 2026, now down to £26.6M - Canaccord).

It is good to see they have not had to use the invoice discounting facility this time, so I will meet you half way at 6/10!

I don't see this moving the share price up!

Looking at £27m rather than the predicted £30m of revenue for the year, although this means nearly £17m in H2 needed.

At least EBITDA positive which helps .

Forward progress is slow and they still have not got the full program in the US running. Mention of legacy aircraft phasing out is another negative until any new contracts are announced.

I would mark this update as 5/10!

As usual any increase is sold into and with the low liquidity the price moves steeply.

Hopefully the TU will cement a rerate (but I am not holding my breath!).

'project finance process being initiated shortly'

In 2023 the project had a 'construction capital estimate of US$373 million' so US$500 now?

The acquisition makes sense for rsg, (although there are quite a few if, buts and maybes to cross off). The thought though, of more years of investment, waiting for a return, makes it less tempting for an investor as capital allocation will once again be to capex rather than buybacks or divi's.

With capex needed in Senegal, Mali and now also Côte d'Ivoire, I have hopped off the rsg bus for a while.

Perhaps they are working on the assumption that if they have no 'spare ' cash then there is little point in Mali (or others) demanding it....

Have you seen anything as to how much EMR invested ?

The multiple paid to rsg is contingent on the original purchase price and the investment made by EMR.

There is also hedging on (some of? ) the gold at Ravenswood, again, not seen how much or the price.

I am viewing any money from the sale as a nice extra (over repayment of the promissory note), but not counting it as given.

''because humans have more FAP than mice''

The key difference is that mice have higher levels of circulating FAP.

There is an article in the Times that Bloomberg is increasing their tactical investment in the UK , it looks like UKW is one of the beneficiaries .

Most of the first quarter 2022 was before the Russian invasion, so although prices were on the rise they had not reached the subsequent highs.

They were also less specific about the amount they depreciating the assets by then.

The tweaks they made last year seem to have help align their generation to reported wind speeds.

18% reduction in generation ver 17.3% in wind speeds for the quarter.

That's my point. April seems to have been pretty breezy, today feels typical, but wind generation has not been very high. According to National Grid, wind contributes 4GW (13%) at the moment which is not much.

Unlike the quarterlies etc, I have never seen the AGM live online.