Member Info for Monkshood

From the conference call-

the $250 increase in AISC breaks down to approximately $100 for the royalty increase, $100 foundation cost and $50 for the oil duty change.

Still not clear that they will, in practice, be able to reclaim vat in Mali, some issues about this in Senegal as well but more likely slow, than not at all.

There are still details to be finalised in Mali, because of this the numbers presented are on the cautious side.

The time line for the new mine in Senegal is 'ambitious' . I got the impression there is a bit of a question mark over this happening. Will they direct resources elsewhere, Ivory Coast??

The change to the nav announced yesterday is so they will need fewer comments like the one below (from the recent quarterly report).

''UKW -2024 portfolio generation 13% below budget owing to lower wind resource and availability''

Although for the year the average wind speed was only 3.5% lower than long term average.

2024

8.4 (8.7)

Q4

8.6 (9.2)

Oct 8.1 (8.7)

Nov 7.2 (9.2)

Dec 10.4 (9.6)

(Brackets 20 year average )

Lots to read in this one!

Headlines-

Changes to 2023 mining code add $250 oz to the aisc for Syama and are $175 oz at the group level.

Some capital expenditure in Mali has been pushed out a year to increase near term profitability.

Senior debt facility (Sept 2024) withdrawn, but they mitigated this by 'additional banking facilities and working capital initiatives.' (including pushing back some of the near term capex in Mali?). Available liquidity of $100m so plenty of cash. Ravenswood (not mentioned ) could also help on this front.

All of the while gold stays at high levels they will still be making a healthy profit. Even on the lower proposed production (Mako running down), taking the highest estimates of AISC, admin costs, exploration costs etc they could still clear $100m.

When they present the results, rather than fairly consistently looking to be below expected generation, they will now be hitting it or exceeding it, a much better optic.

If you put a trend line on the historical nav, the current (150) value is now much closer to the long term trend.

Forward gas prices are high, and look to remain so through the summer, due to higher usage and lower remaining reserves on the continent this winter. Electricity prices are also likely to remain higher than was expected last year.

Having a rejig of some holdings and have decided it is a good time to go for a bit more income and have reinvest in UKW.

This is about the most significant (positive) rns they have put out since the FDA clearance.

Based on the results, with no new contracts, both brokers have Velocity at 60p/share target based on a 1.2x multiple (a 30% discount to peer average).

If Velocity hits its five-year target of £100m revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028 , upside potential of ~4x to 122p at 10x EV/EBITDA.'

With paying the higher divi, in the last quarter they still had 0.1p headroom (in income for the quarter).

''The managers seem to avoid defaults expertly''

A good example of how they do this in this months update-

'Outside of CLOs, the portfolio managers (PMs) reduced exposure to Spanish automotive transactions that contain a moderate exposure to the Valencia region, where severe flooding increased tail risk.'

The royalty change added about $70/oz to the aisc for the group. Anyone know the cost of the fuel duty?

I thought that they covered quite a lot of their energy needs by solar (or was it they just spent a lot of money on setting it up).

Corporation tax increase is 5%, but they can at least claim the vat back now. It looks like the government are not increasing their stake.

I guess they will update the details in the next quarterly update in Jan, but with the price of gold still over $2.6k/oz they have plenty of headroom to remain profitable.

I make that a 7.25% yield at the current price.

In addition to providing shareholders with an increase in the dividend for the current financial year the Board is pleased to announce an increased dividend target of 12.25 pence per share for 2025.

This should quash any suggestion of a fund raise being needed(unless they land another big contract).

To get the auditors to sign off the accounts they would have needed to show they were a going concern, so by this stage it was already looking OK on that front.

Despite some headwinds they seem to have navigated the second half well.

Looking forward to seeing a positive response in the share price and profitable next year.

Any idea why the price has suddenly shot up? The last update added 14.6p but that was entirely due to fx effects.

Given that update would have captured most of the currency changes and the underlying portfolio performance has been rather disappointing this year I am surprised (but happy!) by the recent share price increase.

Another increase in the divi up by 18.8% (to 9.5 c ), so around a 5% yield.

When you look at how many companies are releasing TU's for lower profits they are doing well to keep increasing theirs.

Much larger than typical jump in the nav this week (x3 usual amount).

It's on 111.36 up from 110.67 last week.

HFEL has about11% in S Korea so the situation will weigh on it until things become clear.

Even aside from their investments in China, with almost 25% in Brazil and the Real depreciating by 25% against sterling it was always going to be a tough year.

Good to see that at least the divi is fully covered and Jillings still buying in.

Whilst I have a much larger weighting in BRFI this does offer a reasonable divi and gives some further diversification .

If it goes back to its usual premium then that would put the sp on 172.5. It has been a good opportunity to top up this week, potential capital gains being over half the annual income.

It looks like it is just the occasional lack of liquidity .

If they were issuing equity today (which is what usually sets the lower price), it would be at 171.9. I use the dips to top up with a few more most times.