Member Info for Monkshood

Data just released

March down 20% over 20 year LTA, first quarter down 17.3%.

It will be interesting to see what their output is, although last year they applied a correction to the nav for overestimation my understanding is that was more about output from individual turbines, rather than a general reduction in 'windiness'.

For over a month the wind has also been (unusually?) NE compared to W/SW any ideas if this has any impact? I was thinking if turbines were located with an expectation of predominantly W/SW airflows will effects be compounded beyond just the drop in wind speeds?

Cash pile will increase by an absolute min $30m from Ravenswood. Also they had $36m poured and unsold in last quarter.

Hopefully they sold this in the past few weeks at record prices!

They must be getting close to having a large enough cash pile to more than cover all of the currently proposed capex over the next couple of years.

It is still too early to rule out damage from late frosts although it is looking promising.

Perhaps it is lining up an American distributer, coupled with the potential for lower tariffs than Champagne that has caught an II's eye?

Also if the new winery is being pushed back there may be less need for so much capex in the shorter term.

I should have further added, that they have not long ago ruled this out following their strategic review which they confirmed, in a recent presentation, when the question was raised.

Well, 1.5p off the nav will make the yield look even better!

This should just increase the MtM which, should hopefully, unwind over time.

There is no way they would delist, unless bought out. Gusbourne, which I assume is the comparator, is not comparable to Chapel Down.

Chapel Down sells a lot of wine to shareholders utilising the shareholder discount, so they would not want to risk using this revenue stream.

The liquidity of CDGP shares is (surprisingly?) quite good compared to many companies listed on aim or the FTSE small cap. It is the lack of liquidity that causes most to delist.

Finally ,they will, at some point need to raise money for a winery and will want the listing to be able to issue equity.

Purchase yield at end of March (on a 111.6 sp) was 12.46%, that would be the equivalent of a 12.8p divi after fees.

Certainly gives plenty of headroom to pay 10 p !

They seem to have taken advantage of wider spreads to improve the yield.

With the big final divi, plus a purchase yield of this amount it is not surprising we are seeing a strong response in the share price.

During most of the past financial year the purchase yield was around 11.5 to 12%. on an average share price of 106(ish) knock off the 1% fees and you end up around the 11p divi paid for the year.

Feb purchase yield was 11.8% on a share price of 110, knock off 1% and you would end up around 12p. Base rates have come down since this time, in both the UK and EU, and are likely to fall further.

It is not unreasonable that we could get 11p for the year (a 10% yield after fees at current share price), but like you, I am penciling in 10p and will be happy if it is to the upside.

It will be interesting to see what the next fact sheet says. I don't see them lowering the quality to get extra yield in the current uncertain markets. Spreads will have widened though, this may provide some opportunities for them.

If we were to go into a big recession then clearly the default risk increases, but I haven't seen that predicted for the UK/EU so far.

Top end of what what I was expecting so pleased with this.

If you wonder why the nav has not moved up over the past few weeks, checkout the Morningstar European Leveraged Loan index( elli). As TFIF hold both UK and EU assets you need to look at returns for both currencies.

And no tariffs on gold.

Berenberg raises Resolute Mining price target to 38 (28) pence - 'buy'

It was UBS trading /reducing. Now, from an rns on ASX, they have ceased to be a significant holder.

As expected the increase in share price and higher vol on AIM equated to a reduction in shorts noted on the asx (30m down a third to 20m, now around =1% tot) in mid March.

UBS were trading rsg a while ago , so some of this may be a continuation? It would fascinating to know if they are buying/shorting on one exchange and covering these on another, taking advantage of fx and liquidity differences.

They deduct the fees of around 1% from the headline yield (as we found out out last year).

I would expect 4p with a max of 5p to be a more realistic final divi.

'Up to 20p on asx last night. Are some of the shorts closing?'

This was the case, short were reduced. Another jump today - same story?

Also more volume here today. I wonder how much the II's trade utilising the dual listings, buying/shorting on one and selling on the other? The lack of liquidity on aim (compared to asx) must present opportunities for them.

Still, this is heading in the right direction, first round bids are in for Ravenswood, lets hope that the governments in Mali and Senegal recognise the need for moderation to keep companies investing there.

Bloomberg 8th-

'Mali will resume granting permits for mineral exploration as of March 15 after the process was suspended more than two years ago. The West African nation will also start issuing approvals for exploitation and ownership transfers halted in November 2022, Minister of Mines Amadou Keita said in a statement.'

Note -this has been flagged by cora (hence todays rise).

'Bert Monro, Chief Executive Officer of Cora, commented, "We welcome this decision by the Mali government and believe it will be a catalyst in re-energising the country's mining industry. As a major contributor to the national economy, mining will continue to be an important driver of Mali's future prosperity,'

Up to 20p on asx last night. Are some of the shorts closing?

The amount that could accrue from the Ravenswood is not really that clear. They would get the promissory note paid off but the upside sharing payment is dependent upon what the mine sells (2b?) for and how much was spent by EMR (0.8b???). The latter value is the one hardest to know - I have seen a£800m mentioned but I have never seen anything officially documented. The max upside from this element would be a$150m.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RSG/ravenswood-update-d42k5eay6i2rdt3.html

January's data just been released.

Probably not really a surprise, but 24% below the 20 year average.

But also asset sales will reduce the income from generation...