Member Info for Monkshood

Why, because as you say when interest rates drop, bond funds (or bond fund proxies) will rise, whilst the income from TFIF which is floating rate, will fall. I was rather overweight TFIF so for me it was primarily a matter of rebalancing/diversifying .

Most went in BBGI, but I also topped up BIPS (and added a bit to MYI and HFEL).

I like TFIF and have held it in varying amounts in the past. I have no plans to exit entirely, especially as I can see money supply being tighter than in the past, which will result in higher interest rates.

Everything I have seen, or read, points to default rates being far lower than expected, so I don't think it comes from that perspective.

I think it may be a combination of the generally weak UK markets, plus positioning in the expectation of rate cuts. I rotated some from TFIF to Infrastructure/bonds and I guess others have as well?

I still have a good holding here for the income and don't see rates dropping to the low levels seen previously during QE, but I am not so overweight in it as I was last year.

It will be interesting to see if it spikes up as we get nearer to the divi.

Signa Prime Creditors Back Restructuring Dangling 30% Payout. Creditors at Signa Development, a smaller sister unit, are scheduled to vote on a similar restructuring plan later (today)Monday. BIPS hold 0.05% in Signa Development (it was 0.5% this but devalued x10!)

Despite Altice and Signa improving there is a slight drop in Nav, probably reflecting AT1’s weakening a little since Wednesday last week.

'France’s billionaire Saadé family agreed to buy Altice Media, a unit of Altice France including news channel BFM TV, for a total enterprise value of €1.55 billion. Altice France bonds rose the most on record after the announcement on Friday.'

They still held 0.36% over two bonds at the last portfolio disclosure.

As an investor in SCE I am in total agreement with you on that! It was in my mind when I was writing the comment.....

I am in agreement with you on this.

Cash is tight for H1 so being on track with the new contract is key (all be it one that had slipped from last years original timeline). Once they get through this year they will be financially more secure to take on further contracts.

One thing that I used to be concerned about was other companies coming in and competing for the work. However, even with their prior experience, the amount of time and effort over past year to get the FAI's, has made me realise that it would not be at all easy for this to happen and that they do have a good 'moat' around the business.

Wilsons exercise and sale of all his options (not just those to cover the tax) announced after the close yesterday was a pretty good indication of what was going to be in the update.

It seems odd that it is allowed even although it is only 1% of his holdings.

One reason for their success prior to covid was that, under Dean Finch they had progressively reduced rail business and focussed on coach and bus.

That lesson seems to have been forgotten.

As expected did not scale back so I got all of my shares back plus some extra. In the end it increased my average holdings by 1%, as it was near zero risk it was just about worthwhile (mainly because I have a relatively large holding..).

The dilution to this years revenues was 0.05 p, I had calculated it to be 0.08 so marginally lower than expected. This figure does not include the historic reserves. The impact on the nav is hard to judge as it moves daily. Net borrowing has fallen from 10% to 7%.

I do feel that the whole placing was contrived to let one or more II's in and the wrap issue was just a sop to retail investors. Hopefully they will make good use of the funds raised for new investments and we will see a benefit from the exercise.

So, around 1.7p more to go on the nav (to 108.5) before it goes ex-div in April and then a 5p divi, what do you think Trotsky?

Back down to around 0.2 per week , so it does look as if the income flow in January is higher.

It looks like they were not over subscribed for the wrap issue -around £4.6M raised vers a cap of £6.8.

I took a punt and sold half of mine across two accounts at 172.3, if they have not scaled back then I will not get rich but it will compensate for the dilution of reserves and cover the cost of a short holiday. If they do scale, I should still get the excess back without a loss (especially as the nav has slipped the past few days).

£32m plans for Chapel Down winery in Canterbury face High Court legal challenge

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/battle-to-block-32m-project-to-create-england-s-sparkling-301116/

I may be wrong, but it looks like they are letting the sp creep up above their typical premium so that when they issue the placing shares next week, at half the usual premium, it will look a better deal due to the 'apparent' larger discount on the share price.

'Water Intelligence plc is pleased to announce that since the beginning of 2024 it has signed two national contracts, which launch on 1 February, between its American Leak Detection (ALD) subsidiary and top-tier national insurance companies in the United States'

Nice to see some expansion and probably explains the sp increasing over the past couple of weeks....

Apologies -I woke up, thought is the net cash is low because of buybacks, then read the budget update (0.9) as buybacks and thought that the numbers looked more in keeping with what I was expecting for net cash, it will teach me to have breakfast and find my glasses before I post anything!

I agree the 0.1 is most likely because they have purchased beneath the nav.

However, this then leads back to why was net cash so low for the last quarter? I thought that mentioning production was 13% down for year was a bit of a deflection as the results were all about Q4 where wind speeds were around average.

It is a topic that comes up at some of the conference calls.

June 2022 report pg12 (it is in others).

'Over the life of the portfolio, fixed cashflows are forecast to contribute 50 per cent of the total DCF value

(50 per cent merchant).'

Unless they used new money to replace the existing turbines then it would not affect depreciation. In the past they have not replaced assets but increased them. I think that they have started to show depreciation because they have either been asked to for transparency or there is a tax advantage in doing it this way. 8+ p per year would write the existing assets off over twenty years which seems reasonable.

I think what I was missing was viewing net cash as income from generation (less costs) - which historically is what it was - but, they now have buybacks - so is the net cash lower by the amount of the buybacks?

It would make sense, and the numbers would be more in line with past income (3.7+0.9) and over x2 div cover.

What is not clear, is if this value is inflated because the shares are being bought at a 10% discount, the 0.9 may be reasonably inflated by 10%, still this is a marginal difference.

It is a shame they do not add a little more commentary to the Factsheets.

They aim (used to aim?) for about 50% merchant pricing, it is why they did better than some of the others when the energy crisis hit as they had less forward sold.