Member Info for Monkshood

Some number behind what I was saying.

Why are they now showing depreciation and why has it stepped up so much?

Data in nav/per share form Factsheets.

June - depreciation 1.6 for 6 months ( not specifically mentioned in the factsheets before this) -net cash 8.8 (so av 4.4 per quarter), divi 4.1 for half year

Cash less divi and depreciation(for half year) 8.8-(4.1+1.7)= +3.0

Sept 2023 depreciation 1.7 for 3 months, net cash 5.2, divi 2.2 5.2-(2.2+1.7)= +1.3

Dec 2023 depreciation 2.1 for 3 months, net cash 3.5, divi 2.2 3.5-(2.2+2.1)= -0.8

March 2024 depreciation 2.2?* net cash?, divi 3.43 ?-(3.43+2.2) need net cash >5.63

June 2024 depreciation 2.2?* net cash?, divi 2.5 ?-(2.5+2.2) need net cash> 4.7

One has to assume depreciation is fixed (beyond increasing with the number of assets), as are the divi’s, so they will need almost 2x div cover (4.7) if the nav is not to drop each quarter after Q2 without other factors coming into play (and a one off net cash greater than 5.63 for Q1).

Wind speeds actual / long term average

2023 -Q1 9.2/9.8 Q2 6.9/8.2 Q3 8.0/7.8 Q4 9.1/9.2

Fair to say that the 2nd quarters wind was notably low but the rest was close to the 20 year average and Q4 should be reasonably representative of income (and this is with energy prices still relatively elevated).

* increased this by 0.1 for Kype Muir.

Any thoughts?

I agree with most of what you say (including about the REGO's), but the wind speeds were average for the quarter so it is hard to put reduced income for the quarter down to this. They also have the London Array contributing as well now so I was expecting an uplift from this.

They have a conference call with the Annual Results soon so there will be an opportunity to quiz them on it then.

Does anyone know why the Hornsea 1 debt has increased by £13M over the quarter - has it been refinanced??

The income clearly covers the divi. However, this quarter divi distribution plus the depreciation was greater than the income . As these are the more 'consistent variables' (and the divi's are also increasing) then will need to get used to a constantly falling nav going forward?

Less concerned by price/inflation impact on nav as these will normalise over time, plus will be in part, be countered by the change in the discount rate.

Is there something I am missing?

12.5% over the long term average.

The higher winds for December made up for the lower ones in November (and to a lesser extent October) to leave the last quarter only 1% below the long term average.

It is unusual to get the Government data before the company releases its quarterly results so UKW are clearly running a bit late with them this month.

It is a shame that they did not push it out to the divi payment date so that they could have been recycled back in.

Well I was not expecting this. I can only assume that one or more of the II's in HDIV have requested to buy into BIPS.

With a lower than usual premium to nav its hard to see how it does existing holders much of a favour (after the dilution of reserves, cost for BIPS of investing the raised monies etc), although it should reduce marginally overhead charges /per share (in theory!).

At least it is after the current ex-div date so that is not diluted...

I'm not really expecting them to cover the impact of the final divi entirely out of this quarters income, as you say they should already have around 2.5p towards this in the nav (why do they not break it down in the factsheets Nav+/- current income?).

I do recall that they mentioned, in one past presentation, that the start of the year was good for income from several asset classes, so it could be this is why we are seeing the nav stepping up as much as it has so far this year.

Their latest Investor Update presentation (Jan 2024) looks positive for the asset classes in TFIF.

Cavendish-

We remain confident that Velocity will complete the signing of its second customer for the Alabama facility in due course, but with a more accommodating timeframe. FY24 EBITDA guidance is unchanged, with the revenue mix now reflecting a smaller contribution from low margin initial-stage production. We provide details of our revised forecasts on page 3. - Drivers: Velocity continues to enjoy positive demand drivers in its civil aerospace and defence.

Summary: The FY23 results present a de-risked outlook and a clear pathway to near-term profitability. We believe that the current production facilities can support up to £70m of revenue, and the company is positioned for very strong revenue growth in FY24 and FY25 and beyond. We maintain a 101p target price.

All looks OK but they are tighter on the cash flow for the next year than I was expecting.

I think we are likely to get another placing if they land a big contract unless it is phased to start in 2025. Still, if it accelerates the growth than that would be reasonable.

Nav up another 0.6p (after allowing for the divi ), so 1.5p in two weeks. One more week like this and it will have covered the 2p taken off for the 3rd quarters divi in only three weeks!

It is why Angle make the the point that Parsortix is epitope independence and agnostic to cell phenotype.

Note- it is 20% of the CTC's so you could still image some if the initial numbers were high enough.

Nav up by 0.9 last week - quite a jump and almost half of this quarters divi.

The Cellsearch System is, I believe, the most commonly CTC capture method used, however it has limitations.

My understanding is it is because of the frequent loss of epithelial antigens by CTC assays targeting epithelial antigens it may miss what can be the most invasive cell population. There is a paper on this by A Gradilone

A more recent review of biomarkers highlights some of the issues of using CellSearch-

'.....pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), giving a result of only 20% even in the advanced metastatic stage . This contributes to the underestimation of CTC number and could be, in part, due to the high number of CTCs with a mesenchymal phenotype undergoing EMT (i.e., from hybrid CTCs to EMT-CTCs).

Similarly, ' a study conducted on malignant pleural mesothelioma using the CellSearch® system showed a low detection rate of 33%, suggesting a need for efficient EpCAM-independent detection systems of CTCs.'

It is a limitation they mention is the assay details, along with a need to make sure samples are clear of Dox.

Note EMT=epithelial-mesenchymal transition

It is a screen if coupled to FISH etc (Portrait).

Yes, I know the both in detail. I am just posting what was written in the report. It is fair to say they are both cancer screening tests though.

Hardman -HI review 2023 -Angle which is a constituent of the index is mentioned-

Angle (AGL)

AGL does have an impressive liquid biopsy technology (Parsortix®), which is highly

sensitive and accurate in the measurement of circulating tumour cells. However, it

has taken a long time to get to the commercialisation-stage that it has reached today

and investment by major diagnostic companies has seen competing technologies

moving apace – notably Grail’s all-encompassing early cancer screening test. AGL

started 2023 badly, with a negative trading update and restructuring announcement

on the first day back after the New Year holiday. There was a bounce in April when

it announced a services contract (Crescendo Biologics) and partnership agreement

(BioView). A further bounce was seen in September following an update to the

market with its interim results, but much of this had been reversed by November

when the company issued a trading update and further restructuring to preserve

cash. Although the sales growth rates read impressively (+120% for 2023), it is off

an incredibly small base and is insignificant (£2m) in absolute terms compared with

the massive market opportunity ($bns). The announcement also stated that the

company has sufficient cash until 2Q’25. Extrapolating this back, AGL will need to

publish its 2023 results around the end of 1Q’24 in order to get auditor sign-off for

its 12 months’ working capital requirements. Also, in our opinion, the market should

expect another equity raise prior to the announcement of its interim results in

September 2024.

It's always good to take some off on the way up.

You have the knowledge, and have been invested with Angle long enough to understand that just doing nex-gen sequencing on CTC's is not quite the major breakthrough that some seem to think. The results were interesting but not that surprising and there had been elements in past journal articles.

Again I am left wondering why they had not already done this prior to the FDA clearance.

Well done on your start to the year, you should be able to go on a very nice holiday! I certainly would not have the cojones to have punted that much on Angle.

I agree.

One of the reasons for perusing the planning was to see who was involved. They don't own the site so I guess an alternative is it could be (in part) a lease arrangement? One of the local aggregate companies has also just got planning for a concrete batching plant there and it is the site of Quinn Estates a local developer, both of whom were reportedly at an on site Canterbury Council meeting with Chapel Down last year....

I would say it is looking even better for you now.....