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StreetsJ - its a bit hard on the co to not credit them for expanding and that requires new trained staff and the overheads that come with that. I just hope that work continues to pour in. Otherwise they may have to contract rather than expand further. At present though, there would seem to be more and more defaults and that is good business for this co.
I guess there's some relief in this statement. But if you ignore everything down to what revenue and profit will be for FY24, it's not quite so pretty. The previous Peel Hunt forecast (supposedly reviewed in December but actually unchanged since July) was for a EBIT of £8m. I wrote on here in November that I could just about tweak it up to £5m. Today they say it will be £2.5m. That's after £1.6m in 1H - so just £0.9m in 2H. If you double the first half interest charge (£0.6m) that takes PBT to £1.2m for the FY24 and just £0.3m in 2H. Net debt has risen slightly from £12m in 1H to £12.25m.
So I would say the numbers are pretty poor. Maybe 1.8p EPS for FY24.
However, notwithstanding Cooklin's natural overoptimism, the trends do seem to be in the right direction: case size is growing again, market is growing, house market is reasonably stable (necessary for recoveries) . Profits are squeezed because they've added cost ahead of this growth. I'd be interested to see what forecast Canaccord comes out with for FY25. Perhaps they won't, because it's too difficult to forecast. But that itself is a big problem.
Share price is only back to where it was in February so it's not as if this move means there isn't more upside, but I can't help remain cautious. Fundamentally I find it difficult to trust companies which put 23 paragraphs of good news before telling us - and not even explicitly - that profits will be down in H2 on H1.
....there are other quoted shares in this sector who might be thinking what a perfect time to stick in a cheeky bid!
I am losing big time here but do not propose to cut losses. I might even buy more (again!) depending upon how they are perceived in coming weeks.
I personally think to say “relatively poor” you must have ann underlying agenda
Does it? apart from sp I wouldn't ignore trade volume, number of trades and spread..
Market seems to like
IMV one of top actual reasons is clearly mentioned in this update, check expected PBIT for 2024 - it's better than for 2023 (which was negative) nonetheless clearly is not sufficient to support even current m-cap at existing global interest rate. They do mention a lot of activities in update but the bigger picture - final outcome (net financial result) is relatively poor.
Indicates how difficult is to evaluate this novel business. Will be interesting to see what the market makes of it. Methinks it is doubtful in these circumstances that they will commence payment of a dividend this year.
They are so bashed for no actual reason that even 150 is silly cheap. the future is bright
On 1st glance update seems ok, until, buried deep inside, one reads that while case volumes are up, size has reduced from £139k to £96k per case. Typical MANO disingenuity! Let's see what the market thinks.
Please please Manolete can you wait a few days so I can plough a few k more into this before the trading update.
Thanks
US.
I would expect them to give a trading update around period end, i.e. any time soon.
It’s been a long time though. Could they be waiting until they have a settlement confirmed? Or is that foolishly optimistic?
....I feel pretty sure they have drafted a potential RNS on the implications of the decision in the DAF appeal result but will want the wording vetted by lawyers and accountants before it is released to the market!
There has to be significant upside at these levels. ridiculously undervalued IMO
Um that is Manolete's entire business model so the answer is "definitely yes"
These cases were purchased from other claimants, would the original bunch have flogged them off if there were any big money in them?
This actually happened almost a month ago, on 27 Feb. I assumed it would take longer so hadn't been keeping an eye out.
See for yourself here: https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/12905718-t-bt-group-plc-and-others
Relevant snippet:
164. For all the reasons set out above, I consider that the appeal should be dismissed on all
grounds. I should add that I have also had the opportunity to read the concurring
judgment of Green LJ, with which I entirely agree.
Lord Justice Newey
165. I agree with both judgments.
Kind of amazing that this hasn't been reported in the news anywhere! But this has to be massively positive for MANO. If they can finally get their payout from this case - and I'm not aware of any other blockers now - then they can clear their debt, invest in more cases, and even splash out on a little divi for us all!
Yes I keep wondering about this. I keep coming back to how Steve emphasised multiple times in the investor presentation last year that we could expect updates “early next year, even late this year” about the bank covenants, about the new BBL partnership, and about trading in general.
So what does it mean that this update hasn’t happened?
Did they want to wait until all the good news came together and give it in one big go? If so it’s turned out to be a poor plan. And why suggest that they would update us sooner?
Or is the news not so good, and they’re delaying telling us as long as possible? I’m sure the definitions of “material difference” and “timely manner” could be stretched this far.
I think his salary is already compensating him adequately for the “risk”.
No divis until the cartel case pays out! Until then reinvesting in cases and paying down debt are the only reasonable uses of cash.
Apology I see the founder is holding on to a big slice, and all the others feel he can carry the can.
All the more reason then for him to suggest a bit of a bumper divi, give himself a bit of a bonus for all that risk he took.
They only have to update markets on trading if there is a material difference from their last update. Therefore, you can assume the optimism illustrated at their interims should show through. But I hope we get a pre close update next week.
UpShut
"Can see why BOD never held onto very many" - I assume you mean shares. Steve Cooklin, the CEO owns 15.64% of the issued shares. What is your definition of not very many?
FWIW, over on XLM, a similarly unloved and underpriced share, an unexpected RNS today sent the price up 2x. Not saying that will happen here, but a reminder that it is possible!
.....the results are much better, then Board can and should be criticised for allowing present dive and not RNSing a few months ago with a progress report. This SP is indicating no real recovery yet and I am holding on in hope that is not true, in which case at least one head should roll!