Member Info for tommy15

Presumably a common situation for Mano is that a case is being brought against a director for illegally lining their own pockets while allowing their company to fail with unpaid debts - in which case the director DOES have money to pay!

Patience is key here - there are multiple steps and filters that happen before an insolvency lands on Manoletes plate - I.e. the insolvency going bad, signs of bad behavior appearing, Manolete investigating the case and deciding whether or not to take it on etc.

So while an increase in insolvencies should indeed lead directly to an increase in profitable business for Manolete, the lag may be many months, and the interims may be too soon for a sizeable difference.

Of course, part of the point of the market is to price in these future improvements, with some discount based on how far in the future & uncertainty. But Manolete seems to be somewhat forgotten, so that pricing isn’t happening.

So yes I believe this is a great price to buy, but we may have to wait until the next annual report to see the kind of results that would lead to real price movement.

My only fear is that by the time this happens the UK is in the middle of a nasty recession and equities are all in the toilet :-/

https://www.ft.com/content/5006e768-bf7e-4194-baa9-f8694bf547ab

Thanks Leo, that's very interesting.

The main risk is presumably that the supply chain problems affecting MPAC mean that FREYR looks elsewhere. But it's unclear to me whether any other provider will be in better shape.

Ah damn, didn’t see this. Were there any highlights worth mentioning?

I just bought some appliances with AO and was impressed with their website, range, and prices, so thought I'd look into their shares.

I saw the price was way down and wondered if it was an opportunity.

Then I read some of the messages on this board - including the one by Phoenix here - and thought "maybe not".

Half an hour later I get a call from AO ostensibly to confirm my delivery details, but really trying to sell me insurance and "club membership", neither of which I needed. To be fair the lad on the phone was polite and not too pushy, but it chimed perfectly with what other posters on this board have said recently: the margins in the business are inherently paper-thin due to competition, so profits are relying on these shady tactics; I can only imagine the cost-of-living crisis will make people think harder about buying insurance plans or club memberships that they know they don't really need.

Yes it’s very strange that the price is going down. Who on earth is selling at these prices in this market??

Bit of an obscure article, but better than nothing I suppose!

It's great, but would prefer to understand why!

Pretty sure the market has already priced in these results, they were very much expected.

Same, my shares have now appeared in my II account.

Has anyone received their Franchise Brands shares yet? I’m also unclear on the timing.

Oof, at least another year until dividend reinstatement is not what I wanted to hear. And that's without any additional impact from Omicron.

Also surprised that the news didn't really move the price one way or the other. So the theory that this was rangebound due to merger uncertainty goes up the swanny... although to be more charitable, it could well be that Omicron uncertainty trumps that!

Holla, bit of a chicken-and-egg argument. TBH if what you say is true that’s worse - if NEX aren’t running services despite demand being there then the company isn’t as well run as I’ve been led to believe.

Here’s hoping that they really are on top of the demand out there and the services offered reflect it

Your maths is right, and that may be a helpful starting point for figuring out a target price. But there’s a bunch of other stuff to take into account:

- have the last 2 years of losses reduced the value of NEX as a company?
- what is the post-pandemic competitive landscape going to be like? For a while the narrative was that NEX, as the giant of the industry, was able to pick up routes and contracts from distressed competitors. Remains to be seen how much of a real difference this will make.
- are people going to return to coach travel to the extent that they were before? It’s still too early to tell, but early signs are not super positive tbh - demand still seems to be low, probably due to a mix of competitive train fares, some people (especially the elderly) still hesitant to travel, and people having gotten used to remote interactions (work or personal)
- at what point will the dividend return? NEX used to be a stalwart of any income portfolio, and as such it’s price was held up by all sorts of funds focused on income. That support is no longer there; hopefully it will come back in the near(ish) future.

And this is all before you start thinking about the potential merger.

This is true. You've got to be in it to win it!

Yuri, if you don't mind me asking, why did you decide now was the time to sell?

Update was fairly neutral, nothing we didn't already know; we'll just have to wait to see if business really takes off.

It does indeed seem to be a new short. I wonder what they know that we don't.

Anyone know why the drop today? Pretty annoying given the constant positive news recently (fitch upgrade, positive analyst messages, US reopening, COVID pill etc etc). Looks like a sharp drop too - as if some news came out that I've missed.

Between this an the Fitch rating change, I wonder how much longer AKO can justify their short.