Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Wow I get so tired of the "only people who think this is a great investment should post here" argument. If someone provides a counter-opinion that makes you critically think about how wisely you are investing your money you should be GRATEFUL, even if you disagree, or even if it's painful to read because deep down you know it's true.
ah gotcha, the FT number was % vs avg daily volume, not % of float.
...do you mean 700%? FT has it closer to 900%
Here's hoping
So he's not allowed to change his opinion?
*not "lost", since I haven't exited. Currently I'm down that much. But will be looking for an exit as soon as this bounces - fingers crossed it does.
BigBoo: I'm not quoting a specific fact on wikipedia, I'm linking to a page about a recognised branch of cognitive science. If I linked you the page about Berlin would you imply Berlin doesn't exist?
smoke: fair, I'm just feeling snarky. I have lost mid five figures in LOOP. I certainly hope for everyone's sake that what I said is true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance#Belief_disconfirmation
This board is fascinating to watch. The more the negative evidence piles up, the more you retrench.
Please believe me that I have lost more money in LOOP than you have. I am not a shorter, I am not a deramper. I have finally come to appreciate that this company is simply exactly what it looks like - the classic value trap.
Look at the TCVs at previous updates
Nov 2020: £84M
Mar 2021: £106M
Jun 2021: £117M
From Nov - Mar the TCV grew at £5.5M/month, while from Mar - Jun it grew £3.7M/month. This is not "gaining momentum"! And the increased % of discussions at an "advanced" stage could just reflect the fact that nothing new has come into the pipeline to bring that % down! I think that even using "% of discussions at an advanced stage" as a metric is misleading/worrisome since any movement could be twisted to be positive (if it goes up you say "look, we're likely to convert more of our pipeline!" and if it goes down you say "look, we have a ton of new customers in the pipeline!")
The acceleration in contract wins is more exciting, but the actual numbers are very small - both in terms of revenue and actual numbers of customers. At this rate of growth (with a slowing pipeline) it will be a long time before increases in revenue here offset the losses coming from the remote meetings business.
I think the market has this spot on.
FWIW: I used to work in a lab that was funded by DARPA. The thing we were working on was a moonshot - this was 12 years ago, and today the goal of that lab still hasn't been achieved. Yet DARPA poured so much money at us that the labs motto was "more money than sense".
Nothing wrong with DARPA acting this way - fund 100 moonshots, one of them pays off, and you maintain your superpower dominance for anothr decade. Plus what felt like a huge amount of money to that lab is a rounding error to US govt defence spending.
But it might be some helpful context to indicat that DARPA investing heavily in something certainly does not mean that thing will be a success.
"What's so fundamentally changed in that time??" the company has completely switched strategic direction, away from their remote meeting offering (which couldn't possibly compete with quality products coming from well funded silicon valley startups employing talented engineers) and towards this harder-to-grasp (for me anyway) cloud telephony offering, which seems to be mostly around saying to customers "we'll do the boring negotiations with national carriers so you don't have to".
Profits from the old business model continue to shrink, due to higher competition and product decay, while the new strategy has yet to prove itself in any meaningful way. So a pretty huge fundamental shift!
Personally I'm furious with myself for not getting out of this sooner. The writing has been on the wall for months, but I let myself be pulled along by all the blind optimism on this board. Lesson learnt the hard way.
yrabsmurruc thanks so much for emailing and reporting back here!
I hate to be "that guy" but why do you think the response is likely to be positive? Surely it's never too soon for good news; bad news is the sort that has to be handled carefully :-/
Exception being a takeover - appreciate that this might be bad news for some but personally I'd happily take it!
lol careful what you wish for!
...if I had any of the courage of my own convictions I'd stop checking the price and this BB multiple times a day! Really should just not think about it for a month or two.
Just remember that it is exactly this kind of market irrationality that gives minnows like us the opportunity to buy. It’s not reasonable to expect that irrationality to disappear as soon as you take a position. Patience is essential.
I'd take it to be honest.
I'm interested in this bit: " in order to reflect increased levels of competition against each of those divisions' long-distance coach units."
This somewhat goes against the narrative that NEX is benefitting from the collapse of smaller operators that haven't been able to get through COVID, and difficulties at FGP.
Does anyone know more about this "increased competition"?
"""
Liberum, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, noted that the dominant impact on its revised forecasts for the current year was the decelerated pace at which Covid-19 restrictions were being lifted in all of the primary countries in which National Express operates.
"This postpones the start of the recovery further into H2. The large percentage reduction in our 2021E estimates reflects the depressed level of profits more than a large change in our assumptions," said Liberum, which added it now also has "more conservative assumptions" in the UK and at Alsa in order to reflect increased levels of competition against each of those divisions' long-distance coach units.
"""
I welcome people asking questions and posing alternative view points, especially negative ones. Otherwise the board just turns into a workable as echo chamber - which let’s face it is already the case for most tickets
You're quite right, I did overstate it.
I was going off this line in the report:
"Operating cashflows before new investments and corporation tax (non-statutory layout) increased to
£2.8m in FY21 (FY20: cash outflow of £0.8m) hence cash inflows from completed cases exceeded
payments to lawyers and IPs incurred on those cases and all overhead payments"
So the cash flow position is definitely improving, which I take as an extremely positive sign since this is, to me, the biggest flag around the business model. But it is not yet positive.
The cash flow statement also provides a powerful argument for why dividends feel premature right now :-/