Member Info for tommy15

Ah interesting, yes I'm sure this is why. And makes sense that XLM would be hit disproportionately hard because 1) it's relatively illiquid and 2) it has just reoriented itself around a US-based strategy.

Now, I hope this isn't overly optimistic, but my initial reaction is that this news isn't all that bad for XLM.

XLM's entire business model is basically affiliate marketing for betting sites. This means producing quality, relevant content that customers engage in, linking out to betting sites where appropriate. This content is NOT "predatory advertising". XLM is not an advertising agency producing these adverts and, if these adverts are banned, presumably XLM's approach would be _even more_ attractive to the betting sites as a way of funnelling in new customers.

I do get the other side of the argument too though - if advertising is banned then it's likely that the sports gambling industry as a whole will become worth less; the pie is smaller and XLM's piece of that pie shrinks correspondingly. But my hope is that this is too simplistic.

After multiple excited writeups over the last few months, scsw has implicitly downgraded XLM in the latest issue to a “speculative buy”, and averaging down in the “naps” portfolio.

I suspect this could be a driver for the price movement - I’ve noticed scsw can have a decent impact on small and illiquid shares before

So the theory is that people out there thought superbowl fever had driven the price up, and now it's over this is the best time to sell?

Plausible I suppose - would be a shame if it turned out that run up was more about this superbowl trade and less about the positive news flow!

Shame to see it back at these levels. Very low volumes I suppose.

A handful of sellers taking advantage of the bump up to 280?

Looking forward to the next update here. If there hasn’t been any sign of the Covid backlog making it’s way through the pipeline by then I may have to reconsider…

"Firstly any valuation on earnings is EBITDA"

Umm... this isn't true. P/E and P/EBITDA are two related but distinct ways of measuring value, and P/E is extremely widely reported. Which is exactly why I ended up looking at this share - my eye was caught by the low P/E.

But I do take your point that, in this case, the EBITDA wouldn't have been misleading in the same way the P/E was.

"Secondly please name me one company on this sector which isn’t valued purely on a revenue multiple."

Fair enough, and this tells me all I need to know about this sector! Good luck everyone, but this one isn't for me :-)

Nothing obvious in the news.

...until I realised that this was a hangover from last year's tax refund, not reflective of their actual earnings.

How can the current price be justified?

Wow, market really didn’t react the way you hoped!

I suspect it’s because of the underwhelming 30% increase in new cases. Given the narrative of pent up demand over the Covid regulation this was pretty disappointing.

Any ideas? Market is broadly up.

Significant purchase as well.

Presumably a common situation for Mano is that a case is being brought against a director for illegally lining their own pockets while allowing their company to fail with unpaid debts - in which case the director DOES have money to pay!

Patience is key here - there are multiple steps and filters that happen before an insolvency lands on Manoletes plate - I.e. the insolvency going bad, signs of bad behavior appearing, Manolete investigating the case and deciding whether or not to take it on etc.

So while an increase in insolvencies should indeed lead directly to an increase in profitable business for Manolete, the lag may be many months, and the interims may be too soon for a sizeable difference.

Of course, part of the point of the market is to price in these future improvements, with some discount based on how far in the future & uncertainty. But Manolete seems to be somewhat forgotten, so that pricing isn’t happening.

So yes I believe this is a great price to buy, but we may have to wait until the next annual report to see the kind of results that would lead to real price movement.

My only fear is that by the time this happens the UK is in the middle of a nasty recession and equities are all in the toilet :-/

https://www.ft.com/content/5006e768-bf7e-4194-baa9-f8694bf547ab

Thanks Leo, that's very interesting.

The main risk is presumably that the supply chain problems affecting MPAC mean that FREYR looks elsewhere. But it's unclear to me whether any other provider will be in better shape.

Ah damn, didn’t see this. Were there any highlights worth mentioning?

I just bought some appliances with AO and was impressed with their website, range, and prices, so thought I'd look into their shares.

I saw the price was way down and wondered if it was an opportunity.

Then I read some of the messages on this board - including the one by Phoenix here - and thought "maybe not".

Half an hour later I get a call from AO ostensibly to confirm my delivery details, but really trying to sell me insurance and "club membership", neither of which I needed. To be fair the lad on the phone was polite and not too pushy, but it chimed perfectly with what other posters on this board have said recently: the margins in the business are inherently paper-thin due to competition, so profits are relying on these shady tactics; I can only imagine the cost-of-living crisis will make people think harder about buying insurance plans or club memberships that they know they don't really need.

Yes it’s very strange that the price is going down. Who on earth is selling at these prices in this market??

Bit of an obscure article, but better than nothing I suppose!

It's great, but would prefer to understand why!

Pretty sure the market has already priced in these results, they were very much expected.