Member Info for tommy15

Wish you’d been on this board a year or two ago ManoleteCustomer - some interesting perspectives.

I always used to think of the cartel claims as the light at the end of the tunnel here - it would make them far less reliant on HSBC, give them more freedom.

Two problems with that though:

One is that, as you say, the market probably just isn’t large enough for any meaningful sustained growth. They end up going after marginal cases and their returns suffer. This is unrelated to the cash they have on hand to invest.

The second is that my distrust of management is now to the point that I have doubts about the cartel cases. It’s very convenient for them having this carrot always dangling just out of reach, with the value of it increasing year on year based on “expert guidance” or whatever.

I strongly suspect that if/when the case does ever get resolved, it will turn out that Mano’s projections of the value will turn out to be optimistic, and the upside of having the cash available will be significantly tempered by a meaningful write down of the realised settlement vs the current projections. To be clear, I have no evidence of this, just a hunch, but it’s based on the shady way that Cooklin et al have conducted every other part of this business and its interaction with shareholders.

I’ve been a long-time defender of Mano on this board, but I’m also out.

There are plenty of reasons, but first and foremost is, as others have mentioned, the disingenuousness of management. The constant rose-tinting and silver lining; shifting KPIs to match whatever can be made to look good in the latest round of mediocre results; always more excuses. No mention of the BBLs. No proper acknowledgement of the significant increase in interest rates after the breach of covenant. All while Cooklin is paying himself a salary waaay above normal for a company of this size.

Who knows, the narrative about larger cases returning may play out, and the margins may improve. Maybe. But I won’t be around to find out.

Good luck to those that remain.

Huge uptick in volumes in the last couple of days. Anyone think of a reason why?

Maybe rumours of a settlement with DAF swirling?

Marcus, are you getting this from law360?

Googling around it seems like this decision was made in late June.

Wonder why it wasn’t reported for so long

Ah sorry I see - the new thing is that the Supreme Court has refused to hear their appeal. Definitely good news!

Wait I’m confused. If you Google “Daf appeal Monkton Chambers” you’ll see the news from Feb. What’s different/new today?

Cheers

Yeah this was back in February. It certainly puts Mano in a strong position to prosecute and/or settle the case, but there have been no updates since then.

Those were your buys then?

Link removed. What claim are you referring to?

Presumably they have to go through and reassess the value of each case on Mano's books to their satisfaction? So not a typical auditor's job. But more generally I agree, not great for investors, and not a good look.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me. And nice to hear about a high value case.

Nice to see someone so bullish. Funny that he doesn't even mention the cartel cases, or the fact that the BBL pilots seem to have stagnated.

“Big ticket account wins” - does this refer to the handful of relatively large settlement in March mentioned in the update?

100%, this is the big unknown, and unfortunately they can’t update us on it until a settlement has been reached (or a date in court has been set if no such settlement occurs).

The glimmer of hope is that Steven was able to tell us last year that the second wave of claimants had settled. This happened pretty quickly after the initial decision against the cartel in favour of Royal Mail. Hopefully this next round of settlements will be as quick.

But yes, wiping out debt will make a big difference to the bottom line.

It’s been a long time though. Could they be waiting until they have a settlement confirmed? Or is that foolishly optimistic?

Um that is Manolete's entire business model so the answer is "definitely yes"

This actually happened almost a month ago, on 27 Feb. I assumed it would take longer so hadn't been keeping an eye out.

See for yourself here: https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/12905718-t-bt-group-plc-and-others

Relevant snippet:

164. For all the reasons set out above, I consider that the appeal should be dismissed on all

grounds. I should add that I have also had the opportunity to read the concurring

judgment of Green LJ, with which I entirely agree.

Lord Justice Newey

165. I agree with both judgments.

Kind of amazing that this hasn't been reported in the news anywhere! But this has to be massively positive for MANO. If they can finally get their payout from this case - and I'm not aware of any other blockers now - then they can clear their debt, invest in more cases, and even splash out on a little divi for us all!

Yes I keep wondering about this. I keep coming back to how Steve emphasised multiple times in the investor presentation last year that we could expect updates “early next year, even late this year” about the bank covenants, about the new BBL partnership, and about trading in general.

So what does it mean that this update hasn’t happened?

Did they want to wait until all the good news came together and give it in one big go? If so it’s turned out to be a poor plan. And why suggest that they would update us sooner?

Or is the news not so good, and they’re delaying telling us as long as possible? I’m sure the definitions of “material difference” and “timely manner” could be stretched this far.

I think his salary is already compensating him adequately for the “risk”.

No divis until the cartel case pays out! Until then reinvesting in cases and paying down debt are the only reasonable uses of cash.

FWIW, over on XLM, a similarly unloved and underpriced share, an unexpected RNS today sent the price up 2x. Not saying that will happen here, but a reminder that it is possible!