Member Info for Yuri.F

lol, not sure why syme even was such a fuzz, haven't seen it making any profits for years, consistently loss-making share-printing, atm they're sitting at negative equity ready to go bust.

Because this year situation is very different and there's a long way to go before they reach any profitability.

Craignews
It's regulated industry, to get approval for relending from FCA they need to meet capital sufficiency requirements, AMGO have to go through RI to get this sorted first.
https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-response-amigos-scheme-approved-high-court

@Tegop, SP was £3 in 2019 and £1 in 2021 but it would be grave (for wealth/capital) mistake to use historic performance as reference.

Back then it was a different business with profits and accumulated capital, losses/writedowns have erased it into sub-zero territory, new operating environment insures further losses for years and equity is already negative, technically (balance sheet test) it's already insolvent.

If it goes into admin then secured creditors are at risk of getting in loss as fire-sale asset value is very likely insufficient to cover asset-backed liabilities (half of goodwill and intangibles will be revalued for 60+% less, property/plant/equipment category will go down for 50%). Unsecured creditors will get either nothing or single-digit pennies in pound (more than 90% loss) obviously leaving nothing to shareholders.

Debt maturity profile (and 10%+ interest charge on some categories of it, up to slightly above 15% like with B1 term loan maturing in 2024) under these circumstances is another red flag waiving (pages 140-142 of 2021 annual report).
Refinancing (as it matures in 2023/2024/.. and so on) or capitalizing interest payments under current increasing market rates conditions doesn't look like makes things better.

OPEX (incl. interest on debt) is sitting above £1.5B per annum and there's hardly much left to negate it on gross profit or gross margin side (revenues net direct costs).

This $1B Cineplex court ruling would be (or already is even if enforced partially, e.g. via lower settlement with them) pretty much game over for CINE. all IMO.

Last time we had Wolfgang with his millions as primary driving force, and more hopes/less insight on what's actually going on. Now there's clarity on current situation and very bleak prospects for future. I'm really surprised to still see sp holding that high.

Can't see this high mcap in real world, only in rosy pony dreamland may be, otherwise is not fundamentally justified.
They're are not lending atm, only collecting.
Upcoming / planned (if any) equity raise (via RI / dilution, +£70/+£90m) will be just to cover basic balance sheet deficit (there's a separate requirement to meet minimal capital sufficiency/reserve to get approval from FCA to resume lending)
Equity is in negative territory (but this might marginally change into some minimally positive number depending on how much is spent on claims in the end, subject to final court result and FCA/FOS, plus there are costs of running business and defaults on loans).
Bond maturity is in Jan-2024 (after redemption there's still £50 mil. outstanding + interest)
New debt will be much more expensive (and general market interest is expected to be high throughout 2023/2024 + AMGO exclusive risk premium).
Profits (if any at all) will be very low (b/c of repressive regulatory pressure on industry of high-margin lenders + amgo reputation even if they trade under new brand).

we've at least 2 knowns (more or less):
1) Target £ to raise (at least) £70m
2) Minimum dilution rate, 1:19

Second point suggests what there will be 9b new shares (currently there are approx 475m shares)
First point resolves to something below 1p per share ( £70m/9'000m)
Just to pay to deceived creditors and possibly continue operations as new business (startup with track history of bad reputation for core/umbrella business)
Startup with people (BOD) who hardly established new business from scratch and considering success/failure rates of startups within heavily regulated (and closely supervised in case with AMGO) environment.
That's without even going into details about how they will finance business (since after paying to creditors they won't have much of capital).

Interesting profit boost (and Equity/NAV), although with recent challenges most businesses are faced - it might not hold over the longer term.

Profit dropped, equity dropped, slipslide continues,

Those £90m (+ next coupon) are maturing in 100 days,
of money are just sitting in bank account until maturity
(or invested in other financial instruments, although with recent interest rate
adjustments by FED - relevant debt instruments are dropping in price)
then it sensible to buy-back debt due to beneficial interest differential between two states (asset vs liability).
It is called responsible financial management and proper governance.
I wish BoDs/CFOs of other companies would be acting in a same manner always/dynamically looking for better optimality state instead of playing lazy slacker' card.

As long as they consistently keep making losses and asset balance-sheet write-offs (revaluations, considering situation in retail segment plus strong recessionary pressures on purchasing power and technological shift into on-line trade model - there aren't any improvements on horizon unfortunately), check their reports over last 4 years, it's all there. Even conversion of some assets into residential or commercial property is expected to be done at discount/considerable costs.
It's not bright even for those who base investment decision on NAV, factors mentioned above are correlated with valuation and inevitably will lead to further write-offs from balance-sheet value, opex including debt (despite reducing it's level) service costs are still high and will keep digging a grave worsening situation with liquidity (although over short-term horizon they're ok-ish, thanks to some recent asset disposals and RI). Expected higher inflation and risk-free interest rate increase (BoE/ECB/FED) dents it as well (via asset relocation into debt and other asset classes).

.. breached.. cove..

Re: "...RI *within* 12 months..."

Last report (for period ending 2021/12, release of which was delayed by the way) was showing £360m of current liabilities (incl. claims I presume, can't remember more specific details),
Current assets were £435m (of which loans+accued interest only 145m, most of other stuff in more liquid form, e.g. outright bank balance).
Most of the cash has gone into redemption of secured bonds (as we remember they've bridged covenants), 50m bonds are still outstanding (with maturity: jan-2024).

Based on this information alone (current assets vs curr. liabilities) if they don't get at least 100m (125+) within 6 months (e.g. RI or some arrangements/extension with other creditors) then it will lead to technical balance-sheet insolvency event (delinquency/impairment/default/administration, etc.). It's not even taking into account operational and other costs...

Disclosed short positions have tripled over last 6 months, multiple well known parties, not just one hedge fund thinking they're smarter than everyone else, and if many managers have consensus about the future outcome - it normally should hint you something..

I've carefully picked some, generally all major markets are down these days as part of rebalancing due of adjustment to FED rate changes, e.g. more towards debt away from equity. Some segmental cyclicals (as per recession stage) as expected are taking most of the hit.

Haven't results clearly outlined loss over reporting period (which makes it much worse if compared to same period last year)?
Plus brokers are cutting ratings, plus the fact what there's trend reverse in growth with high recession risks in future years and the evidence what m-cap is much higher than their average net profits are, therefore making it already significantly overvalued ticker (what it should be under normal conditions and we're inevitably moving into market capital deficiency zone).

your request was passed on:
"..New Anglo American's boss faces calls to 'turbocharge' development of potash mine in North Yorkshire..."
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702621/Anglos-new-chief-told-Turbocharge-Yorkshire-potash-production.html

CF was asking for extra £3B for accelerated implementation (but moving cashflow closer),
seems like AAL running at slower pace are thinking they can finish it with £1b?
..if they decide to let market prices for final product {supply squeeze under sanctions} to run at triple rates without them..

you're twisting something, please read again, it says there if they try to siphon money out of troubled entity without putting interest of unsecured creditors first (via provisioning) preferring shareholders (save money for them) - then BoD will be in serious legal trouble with personal liability.
As they've mentioned multiple times: it's "if not ... then insolvency" situation, in those cases (insolvency/doubtful ins.) creditors interests automatically go first (even for BoD).

It's a longer chain, something like this: AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC / AMIGO LOANS GROUP LTD / AMIGO LOANS HOLDINGS LTD / AMIGO LOANS LTD
(shareholders are sitting on first entity)
1) bonds are secured against all subsidiaries.
2) majority of assets are frozen within troubled entity, parent doesn't have much (so shareholders will still end up with nothing).
3) amgo loans as FCA regulated entity and currently closely supervised can't just give money to parent company and leave (ditch) other unsecured creditors exposed, Gary will go into jail for this stunt.

@LTHamigo - Gary was not allowed to protect shareholders interests for quite prolonged time already.
They've been into "going concern" stance for a while with unsecured creditors getting only fraction of what they should get under normal circumstances. It would be illegal for him to put shareholders interests first.
Major chunk of secured creditors went via redemption (significantly reducing amgo' cash reserves), was it somewhere 180m repurchase with 50 mil of bonds left on a market?
At the moment they are definitely in equity deficit with loan book drying under 150m by now (and pack of liabilities exciding this amount even considering cash reserves, accrued interest and despite saving on future coupons for bonds)