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RSI pivot divergence, time consumed projected forward predicts the sp, prediction of 60.5, will be achieved by 10/6/24. DYOR.
Positive divergence on RSI(relative strength index), suggests major sp, upside. The RSI, pivot low of 6/3/24, is used to compute the price fall to the recent RSI low, and the difference is added to the pivot price high of 6/3/24, to arrive at the projected future sp target of 60.5. No need to worry about overhead supply from previous trading, because price resistance is at higher level of 100. Underlying sector is bullish.
The post below gave me a ChatGPT analysis score of GENUINE 3
For once I agree with you - we don’t want change at the moment. I know Al hasn’t got total control over the clinical trials but I think he was far too slow in moving to a two week cycle when it was obvious that the target trial population was too broad. I think he believed that AVA6000 would perform well on lower FAP tumours and was caught off guard. Continuing to 7 rounds didn’t give him the results he needed to impress BP and he was forced into a fire sale fund raise.
All along he has been the king of ambiguous communications knowing that enough of us would read these in the most positive light.
If arm2 doesn’t yield the impressive results we need then Avacta might not get the opportunity to roll out what would’ve been a fantastic pipeline of life saving treatments.
i think it’s important to have someone at the helm who thinks in hundreds of millions and billions, and doesn’t go weak at the knees when a few million is bandied about. if we end up having change then the board must ensure that a new management teams incentives are aligned with medium to long term performance. i don’t want pumpers and bull****ters, it has to be solid commercially based incentive plans, looking at deals and revenue.
there also needs to be safeguards in place to ensure we don’t all get sold down the river with some contrived share giveaway, again the responsibility of the board.
It's sometime difficult to understand the motives of each post as there are emotions tied to some belief. But as we know we are bombarded with both Rampers and Drampers.
It might be useful to take an opinion from ChatGPT as a second opinion before getting into a ping-pong match.
Give ChatGPT a prompt and then paste the posting and allow ChatGPT to provide its opinion (not absolute truth but an opinion by AI).
So a prompt I used is :
"Prompt: I am on a bulletin board where people have the right to express their views on the company and the share price performance. There will be 3 types of posters: 1. Those who wish to ramp and hope that they can influence people to buy shares, 2. Those who wish to deramp and hope that they can influence people to sell shares and thereby drive the price down so that they can buy cheaper shares. 3. Those who are optimistic or pessimistic but have no agenda. For each post provide a score between 1 - 5 if they are a Ramper, DeRamper or Genuine. (You can choose your own prompt).
Results
For a random post that I inserted I got below results:
----------------------------------------
Scoring the Post
Ramper Score: 2
Reasoning: The post mentions potential buyout prices, which could be seen as mildly promotional by suggesting a significant upside potential without strong evidence. However, this seems more about illustrating a scenario rather than outright ramping.
DeRamper Score: 4
Reasoning: There's significant emphasis on the risks and limitations of waiting for FDA approval, suggesting that reliance on such an outcome is overly simplistic and risky. The poster uses a critical tone about the company’s strategy and the possible detachment of company leaders from shareholder interests. This could be seen as encouraging doubt and possibly selling shares out of caution or disillusionment.
Genuine Score: 3
Reasoning: The post presents a detailed analysis and includes various perspectives on the company's situation. It raises valid concerns about management and investment strategies which contribute to a broader conversation. However, the somewhat cynical view on company motives and the impact on private investors introduces bias that slightly undercuts its genuine nature.
Summary
This post leans towards being a "DeRamper" as it highlights the negatives and potential pitfalls of the current management and investment approach more than promoting the stock. It suggests skepticism about the current strategy's effectiveness and the company’s alignment with shareholder interests, which might influence readers towards a more cautious or negative view on holding the stock. The elements of genuine discussion are present but are overshadowed by the critical tone and the implications that management may not have the shareholders' best interests at heart.
Genstar
What have I said that runs contrary to the facts?
… of death spirals.
TG is in cohort with the old boys and suits. He’s the reason for the death spiral finance. He lets the old boys join the party at their own price and takes advantage of long term holders.
AS is an opportunist and a scientist. We have no proof that he is a good scientist. And we have adequate evidence that he does not have the commercial nous to run a pharma company. He should not continue in his current position.
TG also has no pharma industry experience and his financial acumen is questionable to say the least. He needs to be removed.
Gemstar, why would you want to filter Touk ?
His post's are absolutely hilarious.
No chance!
"I think he believed that AVA6000 would perform well on lower FAP tumours and was caught off guard. Continuing to 7 rounds didn’t give him the results he needed to impress BP and he was forced into a fire sale fund raise."
This guy Toucankahmen seems to specialise in negative and damaging speculation, totally contrary to the facts
Filtered as just too annoying to read
Here's an example.
I am presently in Newcastle having watched my team get stuffed 5-1 and relegated.
Example :- Next year we are going to win the championship and be promoted.
I have to admit that's speculation on my part but with a little knowledge. Let's hope the pre match interview on Tues doesn't escalate the situation .
On an as
I was just checking to see who was listerning...haha!!!
🐂💩
Bella
Have you owned shares before and been involved in voting?
You seem very naive
Ice
For once I agree with you - we don’t want change at the moment. I know Al hasn’t got total control over the clinical trials but I think he was far too slow in moving to a two week cycle when it was obvious that the target trial population was too broad. I think he believed that AVA6000 would perform well on lower FAP tumours and was caught off guard. Continuing to 7 rounds didn’t give him the results he needed to impress BP and he was forced into a fire sale fund raise.
All along he has been the king of ambiguous communications knowing that enough of us would read these in the most positive light.
If arm2 doesn’t yield the impressive results we need then Avacta might not get the opportunity to roll out what would’ve been a fantastic pipeline of life saving treatments.
Jive_turkey...yes I would normally agree with you regarding not paying off the bond with cash...however, I did say all or part.
The Bond was issued based on:
'The funds raised pursuant to the Fundraise will also provide Avacta the balance sheet flexibility to continue to execute an M&A led growth strategy for its Diagnostics business, invest in those acquired businesses to drive growth, and to provide working capital for the wider Avacta group.'
I addded paying off the Bond in full or part because if a fund or funds are involved they might call the shots on this and might prefer to fund Avacta themselves.
All speculation though, of course...
Timster...yes you too could be right...
We will only know on Tuesday but if something financially significant is taking place they will have to tell us.
Sigh!!!!
Saint68..yes you are absolutely correct...unlike the single-vote rights that individuals commonly possess in democratic governments, the number of votes a shareholder has corresponds to the number of shares they own.
I was just checking to see who was listerning...haha!!!
Interesting idea Bella. Definitely possible that the 'important announcement' that it is the sale or spinoff of Dx. However, I don't agree with the rest of the theory. They will never pay off the bond with cash. The cash is always better used to fund the pipeline. Getting new money (either through a sale or a raise), to pay off other debts is simply not something that young biotechs do. They are always cash hungry.
"So what news are they going to give us on Tuesday in addition to the Results...???"
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say nothing or perhaps cohort 2 of 2w dosing starting.
Bella - not sure this statement is correct “ Any vote by shareholders is 1 man 1 vote so a PI with 10 shares has just as much sway as an II with 10,000,000”
I think it’s 1 vote per share :
Standard ordinary shares, which are issued by the vast majority of new companies, carry one vote per share. Any shareholder who owns at least one ordinary share has the right to attend general meetings and vote on certain company decisions
Now here's something for you all to chew over...
In Early 2022 the SP dipped and rose again in just under 4 months as follows:
31 Dec 2021 SP = 126.36
03 Mar 2022 SP = 41.39
22 April 2022 SP = 142.43
WHY....well, did someone know what was going on and wanted some cheap shares?
03 Feb 2022 RNS re AVA6000 Dose Escalation in P1 and then no further news for exactly 40 DAYS...then we get
16 Mar 2022 RNS Avacta sells the Animal Health Division...bingo!!! COINCIDENCE or WHAT???
This was a 40 day news blackout due to the sale of a company Division...not due to a fundraise or results closed period.
So what news are they going to give us on Tuesday in addition to the Results...???
Something to do with DX perhaps...a Spin Off perhaps...
A Spin-Off is when a parent company sells a specific business unit or division, i.e. a subsidiary, to effectively create a new standalone company. As part of the spin-off, the parent company's existing shareholders are given shares in the new independent company. Is that why DX is no longer really visible on the website?
Now if they Spin-Off DX then the proceeds could pay off the Bond - hence the reference to Cash payment in future (you have been told but not how much) and existing shareholders don't miss out because they get shares in the new company too hence the comment about shareholders don't need to worry about finance.
End result = Two stand alone businesses TX and DX in which existing shareholders have a holding in both and the DX Bond is paid off in part or full and TX is fully funded for next couple of years.
Question is who is involved in this and what connections do they have to the European Fund...
Is the European Fund one of these:
Medicxi, Pfizer Ventures, Gilde Healthcare, Advent Life Sciences LLP
Has one of the above invested heavily in the fundraise and they dictated the raise discounted price. At the same time they've brought someone to the table (one of their portfolio) who is keen to take on DX and facilitate a Spin-Off and the 50p SP was to facilitate such a deal/give existing shareholders shares in the new company plus pay-off the Bond.
If the European Fund is one of the above having invested heavily in the fundraise, they too would be an exiting shareholder in such a Spoin-Off of DX and would benefit from new shares/ownership too and hence the 40 day news blackout...our second not first.
Guys please stop squabbling amongst yourselves...open your eyes to what really could be going on.
All the above companies are invested in Levicepts.
Look at the Board of Levicepts....Elliott Foster is CEO and was only brought in at the back end of last year...WHY HIM???? and look who he reports to/sits next to/talks to...
Irena Melnikova, Ph.D. is a Partner at Pfizer Ventures.
Francesco is a co-founder and Partner at Medicxi.
Raj Parekh is a General Partner at Advent.
Arthur Franken is a General Partner at Gilde Healthcare
https://www.levicept.com/management-and-board
"Where is the proof AS does not like PIs..."
well he told me how disguted he was with some of them. He basically shut down the email connection to the company to protect the staff from abuse.
So there's that.
Oh and the destruction of the value of the company, (Which he is meant to work on behalf of all shareholders. It looks like the telegram group get better access because as a block they are bigger, so not really the same as all votes are equal.)
oh and ambiguous statements. Which can easily be intepreted different ways.
If he "liked" PI's he would have recognised his slips of timelines and in future statements could have been more explicit for the more hard of hearing.
His view I imagine, is more of a "I don't care, I never forced them to buy this stock, and its a rough game."
But what do I know?
Whether or not he likes PI's, I don't think he cares about them/us at all...not even a bit... or what has happened to their wealth when hanging on his every word.
There has to be more than 1 offer for avacta when one actually comes.
That alone will ensure a lowball doesn't fly
Where is the proof AS does not like PIs...
Any vote by shareholders is 1 man 1 vote so a PI with 10 shares has just as much sway as an II with 10,000,000.
Day to day trading does benefit the company financially regardless who does it. Only shareholder based fundraisers actually put a few quid in the companies bank. Most fundraisers rely on a few IIs to come up with the big bucks. Due to rather tiresome, long winded and expensive drug development costs and obligatory trial companies like Avacta need to raise shed loads as the R&D costs grow over an extended timeframe. Due to this, it is important to hold onto/nurture the II investors. This does not mean PIs are not liked.
Anyone investing in Avacta or other similar companies at this stage or earlier should realise how the need to raise funds works and that it would be over years not weeks. Don't blame others for your lack of research/understanding.