Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
âAnd the market has realised AVA6000âs potential. Thatâs why we are at 50pâ
The market doesnât have a clue about the potential, trinity delta still have a 10% COS. Thatâs why this is very exciting at these levels because once more case studies arrive more people will actually bother to understand the potential. You think institutions oversubscribed at 50p for fun at 26 million odd. Currently their investment looks terrible if you believe the market rather than the science.
Touk, I donât ramp, I try to give my view of where this is headed as an investor rather than a trader. Avacta still have data to release. Cohort 7 is seeing no cardio toxicity and they are dosing every 3 weeks since late November at approximately 3.5 times the normal dose of Dox at many multiples of the current cycle of standard Dox. (4-6) If that doesnât get folk excited of where this is headed longterm. Then I suggest people sell up and try your luck in other shares. The efficacy of Dox is also extremely well understood, so if you think itâs not going to work phase 2 when they are fully designing the trial for efficacy and success, well thatâs on you. I like the risk and reward factor on Avacta. Itâs a no brainer, based on the above.
Was news blackout for 40 odd days, was mentioned briefly on a Vox podcast, however donât actually know if itâs a thing or not. Anyways Q3 readout is due at some point Q2, so letâs see what happens with that data set. Hopefully get some updated case studies and put this 50p behind us.
The market will correct itself once it realises the potential of AVA6000 getting approved by the FDA. The institutional investors were willing to give money at 50p. Yes thatâs their price based on risk evaluation based on due diligence. However nothing changed regarding the data and science when this was hovering around the 120-140 mark. Letâs see what happens when the updated 3w results are announced should be Q2. As for todayâs price around 50p that price suggests the institutional investors are getting nothing out of this investment, even when they oversubscribed. The discount they received originally 34% has vanished. That doesnât seem logical. Total knee jerk response based on short term negative shock sentiment, 34% was hard to take for some investors. People are taking advantage imo.
You donât need a chart to figure out where this is headed mid term 18-20% Dilution with a 50% drop on the magnetic price of 100 is a total overreaction. Sentiment will turn once the news embargo is lifted. Avacta are still sitting on a wealth of new data to release, including patients from cohorts 5-6 and 7.
Imo Simon completely changed the strategy for Avacta moving forward, based on his commercial expertise.
AGM slides, looking for a partner phase 2 STS.
Al was confident on funding issue. (to the point where people including myself) were confident a deal was agreed.
We raised money to go solo and take AVA6000 through phase 2 ourselves. Why? Whatâs in the data to change from partner for phase 2 as per the AGM strategy, to now taking all the risk solo?
Did Simon arrive, look at the deal Avacta had in place with partner and go no chance. Letâs raise the cash now and go solo, thatâs the correct longterm strategy based on my experience and data set. Itâs an interesting thought. đ¤
Maybe thatâs where the potential delay is they are screening patients for multiple cohorts, thatâs why they are so confident of saying the 2w study will be Q2 in Feb RNS as itâs going to be very quick and they will have plenty of time to spare as they donât need to wait for each cohort. Just a thought.
Has these shares likely not already been flipped by forward selling, must admit canât see the institutional investors selling so soon. It wouldnât really be at a significant discount then. They have also seen the slides that havenât been released yet.
Truthfully I wish I could believe that Bein, however you donât have discussionâs with people regarding Avacta. All you do is control the narrative, share personal information when you donât agree with posters and try telling the bb you bin folk when you donât. You are just as bad as the Trolls you like to hate so much. Iâm here for Avacta discussion, not to have a pointless debate with you. So if you really donât like my opinion on where Avacta is headed, please Bin me properly this time and donât waste anymore of our time.
â Knows very little. Repeats a lot. Loves a political trolling. Remind me of a certain sulphuric accountâ
Yet âStalkerâ you still read my posts every day why donât you bin me? đđ I do enjoy living in your head rent free though. 𤣠You calling anyone arrogant is just hilarious.
Totally agree on the comms, however I donât think that will change anytime soon. Avacta have given clear news milestones in the Placing RNS. I donât think we will see a running commentary on the trial moving forward. Hopefully Iâm wrong as I enjoy new RNSâs to see where we are. We will see what happens next few months.
Bella, think the company probably been told by new commercial BD, that they donât need to make the market aware via an RNS for every trial update. Donât think any big pharmaceutical companies bother to give a running commentary on how trials are progressing. Probably wonât hear anything more on the 2w study until itâs time for the data readout imo.
Not really, itâs clearly in the Turner note explained with headings and paragraphs, think what you like. I wonât rub it in when Iâm proven correct. đđ 18 months covers the entire phase 2 trial study which is starting H2 with phase 2 dose expansion after the 2w study sets the starting dose. Phase 1b suggests the phase 2 study starts 2025 then itâs an additional 18 months until completion which is not correct.
âEnd of Q2 for read outs is still a nonsense.â
Based on what exactly? We donât actually know whatâs going on behind the scenes at the moment, the fact they mentioned the readout would be in Q2 in the latest RNS is the only official guidance we can go on. Everything else is just pure speculation until confirmed otherwise.
1. Fully funded
2. FDA approval Phase 2 trial starting H2 (18 months) after data readout of 3w and 2w studies Q2.
3. Going solo for AVA6000
4. Patients still getting AVA6000 out with cohort safety design. (Potential additional 2-3 times more cycles of Dox depending on dose of AVA6000) No cardio-toxicity seen in cohort 7 so far.
5. Dx cash generating 2025
6. Selecting next drugs in pipeline.
Lots to be positive about longterm, people going on about the science not working or the timelineâs being extremely delayed, are just going over the same negative assumptions for a trading agenda. Good example is in the placing RNS the data readout for 3w/2w is in Q2. If this was anyway delayed as some would suggest they wouldnât have added this information in the first place to the RNS.