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Also worth pointing out Vistry currently has 53 jobs advertised on LinkedIn.

Funny how the media frames this like forced mass redundancies, when it’s actually a voluntary exit scheme. If this was a genuine cash crisis, you’d expect forced cuts and hiring freezes, not active recruitment.

The negative spin is unbelievable now.

As I said give it 5 months. If Vistry delivers H2 cash and over £100m net cash year end, a lot of these broker notes and doom articles are going to look ridiculous.

Can the shorts actually exit cleanly, especially on a peace deal? I doubt it. 💯🔥🔥🤣

Patience required. 💯👍

Feels like Vistry is under a full short attack today. Peers are up, yet VTY is down 4–5%. Obvious shake out behaviour.

Macro has actually improved if the Iran situation is calming down. On top of that, the May RNS made it clear debt is expected to reduce significantly in H2 as cash generation measures kick in.

Guidance is still around £200m profit and over £100m net cash by year end. Add in a £4.5bn order book and regular positive operational updates on the website via press releases, and I see no obvious reason why they don’t hit guidance.

Shorts have about 5 months before H2 delivery starts making a lot of this negativity look ridiculous. 💯

What I also find interesting about RBC commentary is they have now pivoted away from suppliers allegedly not getting paid (turned out absolute BS) and the war on Iran as it’s winding down. The new attack angle is It’s now a potential delay in Homes England awarding funding etc, because of a potential labour leadership contest, the desperation is palpable, the funding is already locked and homes England are moving at pace!! This was only 3 weeks ago. 👇👇

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/homes-england-achieves-highest-number-of-completions-since-2020-as-new-era-of-housing-and-regeneration-delivery-hits-the-ground-running

What I like about the new CEO is he looks young, hungry and ambitious. The voluntary redundancies if you don’t agree with vision, is a very decent strategy, just get in, clean it up and move the business forward. BT have also done something similar this year.

H1 being ugly is already known. The real impact is H2.

I would also point out, people keep missing the wording change, it’s now over £100m net cash, not around £100m. That’s not accidental. They clearly know what they’re doing. Going by the Vistry press releases every other day, its business as normal.

Imo Shorts have massively underestimated the Partnerships side here. Open Market looks like it’s getting strategically phased out (only 26%). Near 100% Partnerships are where the company sees its future longterm.

“Another bad article in the times.”

The weekend press are now recycling the same Vistry scare stories every few weeks as I predicted. It’s getting pretty obvious what the game is. Pretty desperate tbh and will likely back fire as investors smell blood and call BS!!

Known discounting strategy gets dressed up as panic. Voluntary redundancy cost control gets dressed up as crisis. Open Market, only around 26% of the business, gets treated like the whole company. Meanwhile Partnerships, Homes England and the loaded H2 barely get mentioned.

Shorts are massively overdone here now. The real question is pretty simple, how do they buy all these shares back, and who is actually selling to them?

SAHP bidding has closed in April, funding decisions are being reviewed, and if the war/inflation narrative fades, one of their biggest macro scare stories disappears.

They’ve got a 4–5 month window before H2 cash delivery starts making the FUD, look ridiculous. Could get very entertaining, all for a short squeeze 🔥🔥💯👍.

Normal investors change their position as the risk/reward changes.

What’s less normal is spending years telling everyone how poor an investment something is while still following every RNS, every presentation and every BB post like a full time job. 🤣🤣🤔

At some point it stops looking like analysis and discussion and starts looking like agenda driven FUD. 👍

Windy’s views seem to change depending on whatever trading position he currently has on.

It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to spot the pattern.

When he’s out, the BB gets flooded with reasons why Avacta won’t work, why the risks are enormous and why everyone should be cautious.

When he’s back in, the doom and gloom suddenly eases off and you might even get the occasional positive comment.

Same routine.

Same playbook.

Same flip flop agenda.

Been doing it for years. 🤣👍

Best solution…. Filter and move on. Life’s too short. 🍻💯

It’s the Burnham effect. He’s been vocal about backing the pub sector if he ever becomes Prime Minister, and the market appears to be taking notice.

Starmer looks politically wounded at the moment, and with Restore potentially splitting the vote with Reform, Burnham’s chances seem to be gaining credibility in some circles.

The World Cup is certainly a positive catalyst, but I suspect the recent strength is being driven more by expectations that a Burnham led government would be significantly more supportive of pubs and hospitality businesses. That narrative is probably what’s attracting buyers over the last few days imo.

Just checked in and it’s not even been 12 hours.

127 people have already indicated they fully understand the risks of investing in AIM and biotech companies like Avacta.

So perhaps we can finally put the daily Risk 101 lectures to bed.

Most people here aren’t looking for a reminder that biotech is risky. They already know.

They’re here for the science, the data and the company developments.

Cheers. 🍻💯👍

Let’s do a quick survey to put the FUD merchants at ease. 🤣

Please tick up if you read this BB and fully understand the risks associated with investing in AIM listed biotech companies such as Avacta.

I suspect the result may surprise a few people. 👍💯

I don’t see an issue with redundancies if they’re mainly tied to the Open Market private side. That part of the business is clearly being wound down, so trimming costs and headcount there makes sense.

The opportunity is in the capital light Partnerships model, not clinging to legacy private build exposure that is dragging cash and margins. Clear the dead wood, protect cash, and focus the business where the growth actually is.

Homes England funding is now starting to move through the system, so it feels like only a matter of time before Vistry benefits as a key strategic partner.

What I find fascinating is the market and shorts still seem to be treating Vistry like a pure private housebuilder, when Open Market private sales are only around a quarter of the business. The real story is Partnerships, and that’s where the huge opportunity sits. 💯👍

You’ll find most people on this BB are here to discuss the science, the clinical data and company developments.

The risks of AIM investing and biotech are already well understood by anyone putting money into the sector.

Constantly repeating every possible thing that could go wrong doesn’t add much value after a while. That’s not constructive and brings nothing to the discussion, it’s just recycling the same negative talking points and comes across as agenda driven FUD.

Most investors are looking for new information, analysis and material developments so they can make their own minds up. 👍💯

The objective isn’t to win every random comparison drug against a specific subtype of SGC.

The objective is to get approved by the FDA in the most efficient way possible.

If AVA6000 can demonstrate safety, durable disease control, improved progression free survival and meet the regulatory endpoints required by the FDA, that’s what matters.

The real opportunity for AVA6000 is likely in dox sensitive tumours where the safety profile allows patients to receive more effective treatment for longer.

But first things first.

Get the drug approved in humans, then Dr’s can decide off label implications.

Right now, SGC appears to offer the most efficient regulatory pathway, so it’s hardly surprising that’s where the focus is regardless of random competition. 👍💯

Not sure what the big deal is here.

SGC has no established standard of care and the disease control rate being reported is extremely encouraging in that context.

From a regulatory perspective, it makes perfect sense to focus resources on the indication that offers the quickest and most achievable route to approval.

At this stage that’s all that really matters.

The purpose of running multiple indications is to identify where the drug has the best chance of reaching patients in the shortest timeframe. Once you have an approval, everything changes.

That’s not saying other indications aren’t important. STS continues to progress and generate data.

It’s simply about taking the most efficient path available while continuing to build the broader clinical package. 👍💯

The shorts are running out of road here. We are moving into H2, which Vistry has already guided to be materially stronger, with partner demand expected to step up and over £100m net cash targeted by year end.

Volumes are dead, so this looks more like shorts leaning on the SP themselves rather than real investors rushing for the exit, creating a fake cascade shorts leaning on shorts.

Homes England/SAHP funding is now working through the system, the Partnerships side is building, and Vistry’s own website is putting out a steady stream of positive operational updates. Including selling big land deals strengthening the balance sheet. (Imo they should RNS those)

Nothing complicated now. Deliver the H2 cash reset, hit the £100m+ net cash target, and this turns very quickly. The bear case needed a catastrophic H1, that has not materialised. Expect some recycled press headlines as one last push. However every month that passes is closer to positive weighted H2 guidance.

I’ve always maintained that the current AIM market cap doesn’t properly reflect either the scientific progress being made or the value of the clinical assets already in the clinic.

The market seems far more focused on short term funding concerns and immediate gratification than on what the platform could ultimately become.

Even a basic look at comparable assets, platform companies and industry transactions suggests the underlying value is significantly higher than where the company is currently being valued.

Could I be wrong? Of course.

But from a risk/reward perspective, I still think the disconnect is obvious. Even in a highly conservative scenario, I struggle to see how the current valuation properly reflects what Avacta owns today. 💯👍

Good luck with that. 👍

Tbh some idiot rampers on this site do love a 🚀🚀🚀

Maybe I’m thinking about space X apologies…. 🤔🙄.

Regardless if it’s 101 or 103. I wouldn’t pay much attention to broker notes.

Actually not even sure why I’m wasting my time discussing this. 🤣🤣

What are you even on about?

Broker notes like Trinity are generally built using bog standard biotech valuation models. Phase 1 asset, probability adjustment, discount rate, NPV and away you go.

The problem is Avacta doesn’t fit neatly into those models.

How do you properly value a platform company with two clinical assets, a third generation progressing, ongoing partnership discussions and 100% ownership of the underlying technology?

The reality is they can’t.

That’s why I pay very little attention to broker targets here. They’re constrained by methodology, not necessarily by the potential upside.

For Avacta, the real valuation will come from clinical validation, commercial deals and platform adoption. Not generic broker BS. That’s why research is so important here. 💯👍