We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
DTW, good points I would say that Avacta number 1 objective now is doing what the FDA tell them to maximise approval, if the FDA says jump we say how high even if they have to change plans, it’s that important they get this approved. Avacta know once they do get this approved, the share price will take care of itself as they get global market exposure. Of course this all depends if the data continues to hold up, no reason to think that it won’t.
Who said I was talking about you Windy. No matter what dilution occurs imo FDA approval will completely re-rate things, you only need to look at the average drugs mkt cap per year of other oncology drugs that gets approved once it’s achieved. This BB is obsessed with Micro BS that has no influence whatsoever of whether this will get approved or not by the FDA. If you are not concerned on timelines or need to sell up, waiting to see what the FDA does is the catalyst, hence I said investment case not the trading case.
To put it more bluntly if the FDA approves AVA6000 in my opinion we will see ATH’s. Everything that is going on at the moment regarding the price action etc is just missed opportunities, of course everyone would have loved to have sold at 130p and bought back in at 50p if you believe in Avacta. However if you think this is going to get approved based on research and data you haven’t lost out on anything really. Moving forward as efficacy is proven in more patient's from the upcoming trials as long as the data remains positive, the likely hood of success will start to reflect in the share price as we get to the tipping point where ordinary people start to believe in the data and this hits the MSM. Even then if the share price surges on the COS being approved, the people that still believe won’t be selling out. They are looking for that FDA approval and the long term strategic options that brings. Obviously human psychology dictates you would rather have your portfolio showing green rather than red but in this situation it’s irrelevant to the success or failure, the FDA doesn’t care about the share price. The Share price cares about the FDA.
Been thinking the last few days. The people spreading fear are so focussed on the short term share price and think this we be a failure based on share price performance since Dec, rather than look at the science. They fail to mention this is still about whether AVA6000 gets approved by the FDA. (the data is exceptional so far)
So cutting all micro BS aside regarding placing etc the investment case is a pretty simple concept.
1. You believe in the independent data, and this will get approved by the FDA. (Share price appreciation will follow)
2. You don’t believe in the independent data, and this won’t get approved by the FDA. (Share price depreciation will follow)
Everything in between the above is just gambling on a trading position on any given week, you might win you might lose. However the investment case is very simple and the FDA is the one that will decide if Avacta are successful or not.
“Like I said previously, the best exercise a new Avacta investor can do is to go back and watch all of the videos put out by Alistair Smith. You’ll be astonished how little of what he has said has come to pass.”
What has Dr Smith done to prevent AVA6000 come to pass? As far as I’m aware we are fully funded moving into a pivotal phase 2 trial H2. With fantastic independent data seen so far. Going over past failures is like saying Apple were going to be a complete failure with the IPhone based on the Macintosh TV or the other 10 failed plus projects. Need to see the bigger picture and potential risk and return, as previous posters have said make your voice heard to the company and AGM if you are annoyed at Smith and the placing, that has nothing to do with the success of delivering AVA6000 through the independent trials though especially at a 50p buy in price.
“The counter argument could be... we have had 40 patients dosed and all it has resulted in is a collapse of the SP what difference will a 100 make”
Let’s not confuse things the Knee Jerk collapse in share price is due to the shock placing that no one expected and the 40 patients were dosed on safety (although we are seeing efficacy) The next 12 months Avacta are testing more for efficacy, however it’s a numbers game. We will have a tipping point especially if case studies start appearing on MSM, where people go ok this is likely getting approved by the FDA.
“Ice, it’s tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.”
In the next 12 months we will probably be over 100 patients dosed with AVA6000 at what point do folk wake up and go ok this is actually is working. Imo we will have a tipping point where the data is so convincing over the 100 odd patients, people will start to go ok this works as expected. The FDA obviously needs to be a bit more cautious, however people will try get in early. That will re-rate things imo.
“Also the last 3 raises have been: 1@120p, 1@95p, and 1@50p. What price the next one?”
Windy are you remembering we will have phase 2 efficacy data by then. The way you are producing different scenarios is great and all, however you need to acknowledge they do have exciting opportunities and are not just raising cash to keep the lights turned on.
Games are obviously being played here. The current FUD at the moment is the short share price. When they don’t have anything negative to say on the funding or the science then that says it all. Feel sorry for the weak PI’s that sell out thinking something is actually wrong. Not even realising we have a long awaited update on the data along with the conference. The reality is 19-20% dilution fully funded and we are sitting below placing price with nothing else changed regarding the science. That’s definitely not logical and sustainable longterm imo.
Windy took you off of filter a few days ago as I did miss our constructive conversations, will reply to this one.
To answer your question I won’t be doing the valuations short term. The most likely scenario for me is AVA6000 will get approved by the FDA. The company will then partner up for a phase 3 trial for international exposure. One of two things will then happen. We will go it alone based on appropriate scale up capital and the next 10 years we will be compared to Roche or AZ or we get taken out in a bidding war, the catalyst for these two events is FDA approval. Hence I am more than happy to wait till this happens then revaluate my position once this concludes. What I do know is FDA approval on any chemo drug is a big deal and it’s potentially worth billions of dollars. Hence Not much point doing anything with valuations short term if you believe the FDA will approve the drug, you can wait. If you don’t think the FDA will approve the drug then you can take the trade route, however that’s not for me. Happy to wait and see the outcome based on the current scientific data set.
I really couldn’t care if folk are concerned or not. The current share price has no impact on the future chance of success or failure. In this case the chance of Success for AVA6000 is the same if the price was 300 or 20p. It’s the scientific data that’s going to make or break Avacta. Sentiment can change very quickly based on news. Good luck Notrex.
Just for fun how much is the entire platform worth on AVA6000 approval? let’s be fair that’s why I’m invested here. You are the one that’s obviously bothered about the 49p did you borrow money and a trade went wrong? 😉
Avacta RNS
FDA Approval of AVA6000 takeover deal announced £45 a share.
Nortex: oh FFS we could have had 20% extra if it wasn’t for that placing 2 years back…. Sack the board.
Two can play at that game. ;)
Facts are we are in the middle of a 2w study for one of the most toxic chemo drugs on earth. That didn’t have dose limiting side effects at 3.5 times the dose with no MTD. Yeah I’m very happy to keep adding based on the risk reward Matrix here. You guys can continue to sulk and moan about the placing and Smith, I’m happy to take advantage of the opportunity presented in front of me. Good luck Craig.