The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Bella the problem is non researched punters were expecting the December data to hit the mainstream media causing the general public to wade into Avacta like the huff post article on the LFT. That would have been easy profits, instead they were on the end of a 50p raise for the long term strategy of the company. They donât care about long term strategy, hence why some people are pi55ed.
Ah forgot about this FUD angle, how do you explain the tumour reduction in the case studies then on the 3 week study? it clearly works as intended? The bar to replace current dox is so low that the data generated so far already looks compelling, the 2 week study is awesome because they are not seeing any major toxicity, it would be unethical not to pursue this arrangement, as it could improve the efficacy even further than already provisionally established. Especially with cumulative doses of AVA6000 over a long period of time on sensitive tumours to Dox. Still not seeing any convincing scientific argument for the trial failing based on the current data thatâs been presented. Come on Thorn and Windy present the case for failure based on the science? Not just some half assed BS.
âThe faith you have that success is higher than likely failure is only based on what AVCT have told youâ
Canât fake independent scientific data. Do some research, maybe you will come back to the same conclusions as most well researched posters on this BB. Very simple question for you. AVA6000 releases Dox directly to the TME with reduced side effectâs. Scientifically speaking why do you think Dox wonât kill cancer cells, if the tumour is sensitive, like the case studies already established in phase 2?
Itâs called an investment case, I can leave that investment cash in indefinitely, also not worried if I win or lose. You are the one that seems to be worried about timelines and obsessing over hypothetical scenarios, are you playing with more than you can afford to lose? You canât even acknowledge that the likelihood of success of approval is higher than failure. On approval this is likely a 10-20 bagger from 50p. Thatâs very good potential rates of return if you understand the science and want to invest on AIM.
You two muppets do realise the FDA will make a decision on AVA6000 one way or another, thatâs not fantasy land. Itâs reality.
Whatâs going to be the market cap on approval? 2bn 5bn 10bn market cap compared to comparable pharmaceutical companies . Happy to wait until that decision is made based on the current exceptional data being presented and my research. Thatâs the investment case. The funding been sorted, so all that matters now is regulatory approval. Short term volatility HC bond and what Al says is just micro BS, that is irrelevant to the fact the FDA will make that decision eventually.
Unless you two think the FDA wonât make that decision eventually? Then you are bigger idiots than I think you are.
Bit early for a breakdown must have hit a nerve đ¤Łđ¤Łđ¤Śââď¸.
What do you not understand. The share price is completely irrelevant to me. Was irrelevant at 185p was irrelevant at 47p was also irrelevant at 285p. Itâs all about where this company is headed longterm based on this trial and scientific data. Look you are a trader, I am an investor. Working on different levels. If the FDA approves AVA6000. I will win, if they donât approve it then I will lose. Everything going on in the meantime doesnât concern me. One way or another the FDA will make that decision. I donât chase rainbows, on a hamster wheel playing for 10% profit ramping or de ramping on multiple bbâs chasing my next gambling fix. Will leave that up to you. đđŻ
âIce, remove your opinion of me and what you think are the reasons of why what and when I post.â
Why would I do that, you talk absolute BS based on the current position you are in. You have made it absolutely clear you trade Avacta. All I am saying is if you believe in AVA6000 longer term as an investor you might as well buy in now based on your research, because everyday that passes is closer to a license deal etc, yes you could maybe save a few p waiting HC bond playing the game, however if a license deal does come through this will rapidly re-rate back up to 100 odd. As a trader only caring about 10% yeah agree might as well wait and see what happens with Bond Conversion, because you are only caring about the short term.
Seriously Windy, thatâs such a short term view of thingâs, yes the HC bond conversion might depress the short term share price. (unless they have forward sold đ) However two week data could leak with significant efficacy seen in the targeted patient group thatâs known to be sensitive to Dox. We might get DX news or most likely we may get some 3rd licence deal for a new toxic warhead. Very easy to sit back and go yes this will do xyz look at me Iâm a trading guru. However if we do get a third party deal next few weeks you wonât be hanging around here. You will disappear like you did last time and move on. Things can happen here very quickly. Not as simple as you make out.
What are you even on about.
Example 1
Avacta approached HC to buy a DX business and expand, thatâs why they got lent the cash in the first place just like you going into the bank and saying I want 20k what is it for home improvementâs.
Example 2
Avacta could have approached HC and said yeah we have this phase 1a drug it looks promising we need 50 million. Tbh they would have been laughed at considering the industry standard COS. Thatâs like going to your bank and saying I want to borrow 20k however itâs not for home improvements, Iâm going to put it all on black at the roulette wheel.
Commercialisation of AVA6000 in 2026 so yeah way ahead of schedule đ. Why are you even still here clearly not invested. Also do you see a lot of 50million CB deals done on AIM. Companies tend to go bust if things donât go to plan. No way they would have lent the money out without a good long term strategy on generating a cash making business within the next 5 years, incase TX didnât go to plan. Can also say yeah we donât agree because I tend to back up my posts with facts and logic, you are just into potash and free flowing FAP in the bloodstream, (howâs that working out đ¤đ) PS seen Neil Bell down at Tesco the other week, he said donât worry Icecool, was told Avacta would buy POTATOES and RIBENA if AVA6000 was duff. Thatâs why he left, who would have known that.
âThey'd have lent the 50 million regardlessâ
Yeah we have this random phase 1a drug in the pipeline give us 50 million pleaseâŚâŚ. đ¤Śââď¸. No company lends that sort of cash, without a valid strategic reason and due process and diligence. DX is very much part of the larger strategy, build it up and spin it off. It will be cash generating 2025. Not like we need to sell it next week we have 24 months cash runaway and many other options in the meantime to generate funds, including South Korean stake.
Folk do realise we bought launch to land the CB to provide working capital as well as build a lucrative DX business, you really think someone would just lend out 50 million odd in a bond based on the very early AVA6000 data. They needed a cash generative business they could integrate turn around and sell on in the future. Everything is coming to plan, just need the patience to see all this hard work and strategy pay off now. Real steady success takes time and synergy.
Dr Smith only cares about the end game not short term share price, value will win out in the end. All you need to do is look at other bio pharmaceutical companies raising money in the UK to see how well he is navigating this challenging environment, One bio company yesterday, actually delisting and moving elsewhere. Facts are deals could have been done short term, however it was deemed far more strategic to get cash in and do deals down the line at a more significant premium, thanks to our new commercial lead imo. The traders wonât like it though, they are now locked in with the LTHâs. For the rest of us things are now looking really good, I look forward to the 2w case studies in due course.
Thatâs assuming the FDA doesnât approve it some other way. Which with the safety data so far no MTD found and what looks like a preference for lower dose over a longer period of time looks like a promising scenario. PFS surrogate endpoint is my prediction, the 60 year old case Study has been on the trial for over a year with significant tumour reductions. Just shows you the potential in high fap dox sensitive groups.