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Cavendish update
ATOME (ATOM): CORP Valuation update following successful equity raise We have updated our estimates and valuation to reflect ATOME’s successful equity raise and strong progress with its Costa Rica green fertiliser project reported over the last week. Near-term earnings are pared back but our risked NAV and price target rises 2% to 310p/sh.
fyi cavendish update
https://*********************/research/cavendish/morning-note-21-february-2024/129_8bd32a88-2986-47ae-90ec-02cbabe4556f/87954fb5-9e06-4e8d-afb2-ffb9c19135ad
Assuming men subscribed 4 shares as already big holding.
Long way go IF finally get into production, oppitunitys there I'm sure buy under placing price.
Lordwm past performance is no recommendation for the future, ask any molecular energy/president energy investor where he has waltzed away a chunk of that company just in time for a government change in Argentina that has a more favourable approach to companies doing business there.
It looked like we were moving pretty quickly and on track for FID end of 2023, but it seems the environment to raise money has worsened (inflation & interest rates looked like they were coming down, now it appears not), so it's taking longer to get optimal/acceptable finance.
Hopeully it's just a short delay and we'll be breaking ground at Villeta soon. Once finance is in place the route to first production should be pretty predictable, and in the mean time the board are stacking up further projects.
I'm not happy about the delay and SP drop, but Directors made significant purchases last year at close to £1 and are putting more in. if Peter Levine does what he always does (grew the SP at Imperial Energy by 5000 and sold), we'll all be happy in teh end.
"The raise is is slightly different because directors have subscribed for a total of 941,000 Shares."
The raise is exactly what Levine always does, what happened to the option of him putting money in at 80p if and when needed. What they want now they have picked up cheap shares massively discounted to the float price is for pi's to pile in to drive the price back up. Patience will see a lower price to top up if your so inclined !
I agree, but your holding has still been diluted.
The raise is is slightly different because directors have subscribed for a total of 941,000 Shares.
Directors buying into a fund raise i think is a positive sign
The problem with investing in any business before it is making a profit, no matter how attractive the prospects, is they need cash to build the business so they can make profits. Invariably they have to raise more and more capital, so either your investment is diluted, or you start putting more money than you want to risk into the business.
Now we know why it dropped 26% in a month
Another dodgy AIM scam
There's raise 50p, at least financed now, could be punt these levels, why share price drifting of late, acomondate placing. 4 patient ones could buy sub 50p
It does seem that FID is drifting a little. Somewhat annoying
There’s a second larger project in Paraguay, they’re evaluating sites close to power and putting a power purchase agreement in place now. This will follow Villeta, should be announcements soon.
https://www.atomeplc.com/projects/yguazu/
"ATOME now has three industrial scale green ammonia and fertiliser projects in development in Central and South America"
I must have missed something. 3? There's Paraguay & Costa Rica. Where is the third?
Further validation. Re interest rates to be honest and not wanting to over offend I sort of think you are out to lunch!!
ATOME now has three industrial scale green ammonia and fertiliser projects in development in Central and South America and has positioned itself as the leading player in green hydrogen-based agriculture products in these territories.
Feb 14th they announced things are progressing well in Costa Rica including a meeting with the President of Costa Rica in late January.
My take is we will not see financing until interest rates come down
I wonder if this is the bottom for the SP now.
It’s great to see the projects stacking up post Villeta.
If Atome announce a solid project finance plan and off take for Villeta, every step towards production, with visibility of further larger production facilities should turbo the SP.
With news expected on this within 6 weeks, I suspect the days of a SP below £1 will be over. I’m glad I averaged down with small additions on Mon and yesterday.
Good luck all.
Good news today, whilst all the projects take time - foundations look great atm.
£4.1 million raised back in May 23 95p, hazard guess on there last million, cash burn high.
What I find interesting is it states construction will begin mid 2024 ( in my eyes that's may June July), but idb board meeting is 30 th July which means they could release funds August which is not mid 2024, therefore another backer has to be releasing funds prior to them, otherwise they sabotaged their own document timeline.