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Kld1, I’ve gone through the 10-page report and it’s pretty bullish. I’ve provided a brief, paraphrased (to avoid any ‘copyright’ concerns) summary of the research note:
ATOME has achieved significant advancements in its projects, with the 145MW Villeta Project FEED, EPC, and Offtake Agreement expected to conclude imminently, while the 300MW Yguazu Project appears on track to finalise a power purchase agreement (PPA) in the first half of 2024.
Additionally, the company has made progress in Costa Rica, initiating a feasibility study with the national power company for a project similar in scale to Villeta. The goal is to secure a PPA by the second half of 2024.
Our valuation relies on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model of Villeta and Yguazu, with an assumption of equity financing at the price of the BH equity injection (95p per share).
We have, therefore, factored in a scenario where a farm out arrangement is in place, with ATOME retaining a 25% free carry but covering development costs to date. In this scenario, our valuation stands at 252p.
Alternatively, if we consider the possibility of the company selling the assets for 30% of their full value, our valuation then drops to 200p.
In either case, there is substantial upside potential from the current valuation.
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There is a research note out today from Longspur you may have to subscribe it talks about all possible funding solutions in truth I am not sure what to make of it all. To subscribe through research tree is not expensive
Two great posts thanks. Chat room coming alive and refreshingly with comments of substance
March 19, 2024
PARAGUAYAN PRESIDENT HIGHLIGHTS COUNTRY’S PRODUCTIVE MODEL
President Santiago Peña highlighted Paraguay's productive model and spoke about his country's future in terms of economic and financial development in the panel ‘Spotlight on Latin America’ sponsored by the Financial Times.
The head of state pointed out that the technology incorporated into the agricultural production system will allow Paraguay to achieve the development it has longed for.
“What will lead us to grow at a rate of 8% or 9% in the coming years is the installation of a pulp mill and several industries that will benefit from water and electricity to produce green hydrogen or first ammonia as a sustainable fertiliser,” said Peña.
https://en.mercopress.com/2024/03/19/paraguayan-president-highlights-his-country-s-productive-model
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A further show of support for Atome’s business case*, from the upper echelons of the Paraguayan political establishment, makes this an even more compelling story.
* Atome's central business case revolves around its flagship green hydrogen and ammonia project in Villeta, Paraguay. This two-phase endeavour aims to establish a capacity of 145MW, leveraging the 14GW Itaipu Binacional hydroelectric dam operated by Paraguay's state-owned power utility, ANDE.
Villeta has been slated to produce up to 270,000 tons per year of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) fertiliser from Q4 2025, displacing up to 500,000 tons of CO2 per year in emissions.
And a close look at the latest media reports (below) suggests you dismiss this entrepreneurial outfit at your own peril, as it has the management and connections to deliver its ground-breaking objectives and achieve much more besides.
(Reported on March 18, 2024)
“Similarly, Latin American countries Chile and Paraguay are working to establish green hydrogen plants. Chile has already signed agreements with the EU, France, and Belgium, while PARAGUAY IS PLANNING TO EXPORT ITS PRODUCTS TO ENGLAND.”
https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/green-hydrogen-production-the-turning-point-of-the-nepalese-economy/
“IDB Invest has placed a US$128mn request from the AIM-listed firm (Atome Energy) in its pipeline of potential financing.”
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/financing-in-the-pipeline-for-paraguay-green-hydrogen-project
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Kld1. I can only test the depth in stocks I hold size. Stocks 99% of the time work in certain numbers. In this stock it will be 2500, 3750,5000, 7500, 10000,15000, 25000, 37500, 50000. So say you have a holding of 15555, if you get a quote to sell the lot it also means the mm's will be actually bidding at least 25000. You probably already know this. Point is here you can sell 25000 online and at the close it was a whopping 58.11p bid and I tested the buy limit and every single one was NT to buy even a tiny £100's worth, real squeeze which has been going on since it got back above 50p. My bigger holding is MEN so naturally I want this to do well so hopefully MEN will follow but investment stocks never trade anywhere near NAV value but there is still a gap to fill there especially when it's Atom holding alone is worth close to 40p now and they sit 25p bid
How where do you see the depth of the market
Honestly test the limits here they are sensational. 55-60p...can now sell for 58.11p for size and cannot even get a quote for £100's worth to buy even though 3 mm's sit at 60p offer 3000 each. Got to be a buyer order
When building starts it will be 19 months for precommissioning and testing, if that's any help
No stock NT at 60p. All the mm's are holding out at 55-60p but it will have to give soon
And with interest rates more likely to fall in the short term, hopefully conditions will be more optimal for the finance package. Fingers crossed we see an agreement made in the next few weeks so that we can get building! As we get into operational execution with a more firm timeline to production and first revenue, we should see a significant re-rating.
Good luck all.
Great find I also believe that Atome is looking very seriously a shipping ammonium nitrate to the UK in size. The UK 's net zero target would be strongly enhanced by this and possibly be subsidized by the government who knows
Lots of 1666 buys or £1000. Weird they all sit there 55-60p when it's 57.9p bid online and full 60p offer online
JAPANESE EYEING POTENTIAL OFFTAKE OF PARAGUAY GREEN HYDROGEN (Published: March 18, 2024)
Plans to produce green hydrogen in Paraguay have drawn the attention of a potential Japanese offtaker for the alternative fuel.
During a meeting in Kyoto between a Paraguay government delegation and the Tsuneishi Group, local authorities highlighted the latter’s incorporation of hydrogen into its vessels and other opportunities in Japan.
The delegation was led by foreign minister Rubén Ramírez Lezcano, and Rodrigo Maluff, deputy minister of investments and exports network Rediex who also discussed hydrogen opportunities with Mitsubishi executives, Paraguay’s industry and commerce ministry reported.
Development of the South American country's green hydrogen potential is led by Atome and its US$365mn Villeta project and the Yguazú early-stage project.
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/japanese-eyeing-potential-offtake-of-paraguay-green-hydrogen
VIEW
Another positive development that is, undoubtedly, likely to strengthen Atome’s business case as it continues to chart its way to the top of the South American green fertiliser market which is predicted to enjoy a 5.80% CAGR and a £2.35bn market by 2030 (InsightAce Analytic).
Looking ahead, anticipated milestones for the company include FEED, EPC contracts, Offtake agreements, FID, and Project Finance – all slated for delivery between now and July 2024, signalling strong momentum in project execution.
Thus, despite its vast potential, Atome's current market valuation stands at a paltry £25 million, significantly undervaluing the business which, by the way, appears to be gaining the attention of green-focussed institutional investors by the day.
With ZERO DEBT, FULLY CASHED-UP, a BOD sporting serious skin in the game, a strong institutional shareholder base, and a current period of exceptional newsflow, the stage is set for a markedly strong revaluation of the company’s shares.
AIMHO
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Great bowl forming, 80p target price in time, great 4 those that bought in on lows
55-60p, mm's 59.95p no discount at all online on a wide spread. 57.16p bid
Atom looks really good online 55-58.5p on the monitor. There is 5000 max online available and that is at 58.5p full offer and bidding over 57p, any support and it's off
Reading the Advfn thread that might apply to another investment they hold.
Piperpeter9 Mar '24 - 22:46 - 97 of 100
0 2 0
PUGUGLY.
You need to check out the RNS 5 Sept. 2023 to be up-to-date, "Proposed Sale of President Energy Holdings UK Ltd".
"The sale will enable MEN to be free of approximately US$33 million of third party debt which sits in the Argentine Company. This will leave the only remaining financial debt in MEN as a long-term and interest free loan currently standing at US$12.1 million, with a maturity date end of December 2025 and capable of extension if the parties agree".
At the time of this RNS (5 Sept. '23), basically the Company (MEN) owed to Peter Levine US$12.1 million (interest free!), and the Argentine Company (owned by President Energy Holdings UK Ltd, and basically now owned by Peter Levine) owed to MEN US$13 million plus interest.
The balance being that MEN were actually owed more than it owed (approx. US$1 million).
This money (US$13 million plus interest) is now being repaid back to MEN, as you will see from the very recent RNS's (US$1.28 million having been received by MEN over the last few months).
As chris cat has pointed out on the trader's thread, what is owed and what is owing pretty much cancel each other out, meaning that MEN is, on balance, currently net debt free.
Hope this helps.
Pp.
Please correct me if I am wrong but does PL not have a call on the Atome shares against monies owed in loans by MEN?
That is kind of interesting, so some brokers do have a near term target of £3 for atome that's worth £30 million to men. That would be some rerating for them.
Worth noting MEN have a near 20% stake in ATOM and that alone is worth way more than their low market cap and they have a string of projects elsewhere so if you are playing here it's surely worth playing the ticker MEN Molecular Energies
There has in recent months been an increase in the mention of the UK and Ireland with regard to product placement which I suspect would arise from the second project in Paraguay as they mention the production of ammonium nitrate as opposed to CAN ( easier to transport) so wonder if as a result EIS status might be then beneficial .
Thoughts?
I suspect and the data suggests that at the very best US rates are might come down .25 possibly at the end of the year . They will not wait that long.
Good point kld1. Suspect this will rocket if the economics are as good as we hope. Seems like a frustrating environment to raise funding, waiting a few months could make a huge difference with %rates if inflation comes down.
Sure be more placings along line 4 them participate in.