The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Good find. Have been following these developments for a while. Wonder if we need any clarification from the company here. Should we expect an increase in the tariff for the second project??
Atome mentioned far down, that a complaint has been lodged that the state is under charging atome using an out dated rate, well now we now we getting a good deal https://dialogue.earth/es/energia/energia-finanzas-clima-negociaciones-represa-itaipu-brasil-paraguay/
Olivier Mussat posted on LI a month ago:
Although linkedin is not quite the right forum to discuss investor questions, I d be remiss not to respond to @ matt phillips who asked a question on another post "When will atome be announcing progress at Villeta. Investors were promised FEED and FID in Q3 2023. We were then promised Offtake in Q1 2024. Here we are in Q2 and none of this has yet materialised. "
Dear Matt, you are correct that we have been delayed in our original program, and as stated since, engineering has taken more time than expected and created knock on effects across the financing and the offtake. And whilst we are now nearing the end of FEED of Villeta, we are in parallel negotiating both the EPC contract and offtake in order to achieve the best possible outcome for the project and all ATOME shareholders.
Rest assured we are not sitting idle on our hands and doing our utmost in creating a first in kind green fertilizer project that will become a blueprint.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/omussat_although-linkedin-is-not-quite-the-right-activity-7181228824049655808-Yen5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
The CEO Olivier Mussat has said that an announcement will happen within the next 2 months (any day), where they accounce project financing and offtake agreement, which will see the back of this crazy low SP.
This whole interview is interesting, but look at his answer at 19.25 to see the investment case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJOnA-ukECY
Progress and likely newsflow in this interview at 16.00 mins (def worth listening from 16 mins to the end):
Offtake Agreement - They're close to signing.
Finance - Capex $400m+, anticpate 55/60% debt to equity
https://peelhuntnewenergycleantechnology.gallery.video/240422
Updated company presentation:
P 13 - "FEED and EPC completion expected by end Q2 2024"
P 13 - "Offtake targeted for agreement in H1 2024"
https://wp-atome-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/02/240205-Atome-Q1-Presentation-website-v5.pdf
Well there is a bowl forming Steve , problem is it is upside down !
Must be time for some news on Paraguay soon. That should get this motoring and will be exciting to move into the construction phase, with more visibility of first revenue timeframe.
Interesting read from : ADFN Evening Euro Markets Bulletin:
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on Atome with a 'speculative buy' rating and 130.0p target price on Monday, stating the company's choice to focus on finished ammonia fertiliser manufacture was "advantaged".
"Fertiliser is high-value, strategic, tradeable and fungible, and manufacturing it from electricity, water and air (rather than natural gas) gives a completely different cost, security of supply and sustainability profile," said Canaccord Genuity.
In the short term, it expects the company to progress its lead project in Paraguay to put all of the elements for a final investment decision in place later this year, something the analysts expect to be "a material value realisation" event for Atome.
"We believe its strategy of going downstream to monetise island power opportunities is both highly attractive and likely to be followed by other companies on other electricity-driven projects worldwide," added the Canadian bank.
"We expect the next valuation event to be announcements on offtake and debt on the project, expected 2Q 24. We base our valuation on a risked net asset value, which we believe is the most straightforward approach for development companies."
Great bowl forming here, good luck ones who bought at bottom, can c this heading back 80p original placing price.
They may be kid1 if he gets a controlling grip on Atom
UNDERSTAND YOUR FRUSTRATION HOWEVER YOUR COMMENTS ON THIS BOARD ARE NOT REVELENT REALLY
The guys credibility is shot to pieces and he expects to raise money here.
3 name changes then private. Down 77% today
3 name changes and now private. Clever chap our Peter!
They must have knew about Men, it's been well offered all week and NT to sell most of the time. Surely if they want money they could place a certain amount of Atom shares
Atom up yet again and MEN down yet again, the gap grows.
Glad I have some Atom but my bigger holding is MEN and it cannot keep drifting when it holds so many of these
which is rising daily
Want to come back to EIS would I be right in thinking that not only can employees not participate but also financial institutions so neither could Schroders. Also anyone up to speed on Carbon credits. Who would issue these credits to Atome and can they be sold anywhere
Atom recovering might not be nuts but the face Men is down is nuts. 60p about to pop and Men is down on the offer today to 26p...
Kld1, I’ve gone through the 10-page report and it’s pretty bullish. I’ve provided a brief, paraphrased (to avoid any ‘copyright’ concerns) summary of the research note:
ATOME has achieved significant advancements in its projects, with the 145MW Villeta Project FEED, EPC, and Offtake Agreement expected to conclude imminently, while the 300MW Yguazu Project appears on track to finalise a power purchase agreement (PPA) in the first half of 2024.
Additionally, the company has made progress in Costa Rica, initiating a feasibility study with the national power company for a project similar in scale to Villeta. The goal is to secure a PPA by the second half of 2024.
Our valuation relies on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model of Villeta and Yguazu, with an assumption of equity financing at the price of the BH equity injection (95p per share).
We have, therefore, factored in a scenario where a farm out arrangement is in place, with ATOME retaining a 25% free carry but covering development costs to date. In this scenario, our valuation stands at 252p.
Alternatively, if we consider the possibility of the company selling the assets for 30% of their full value, our valuation then drops to 200p.
In either case, there is substantial upside potential from the current valuation.
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There is a research note out today from Longspur you may have to subscribe it talks about all possible funding solutions in truth I am not sure what to make of it all. To subscribe through research tree is not expensive
Two great posts thanks. Chat room coming alive and refreshingly with comments of substance
March 19, 2024
PARAGUAYAN PRESIDENT HIGHLIGHTS COUNTRY’S PRODUCTIVE MODEL
President Santiago Peña highlighted Paraguay's productive model and spoke about his country's future in terms of economic and financial development in the panel ‘Spotlight on Latin America’ sponsored by the Financial Times.
The head of state pointed out that the technology incorporated into the agricultural production system will allow Paraguay to achieve the development it has longed for.
“What will lead us to grow at a rate of 8% or 9% in the coming years is the installation of a pulp mill and several industries that will benefit from water and electricity to produce green hydrogen or first ammonia as a sustainable fertiliser,” said Peña.
https://en.mercopress.com/2024/03/19/paraguayan-president-highlights-his-country-s-productive-model
VIEW
A further show of support for Atome’s business case*, from the upper echelons of the Paraguayan political establishment, makes this an even more compelling story.
* Atome's central business case revolves around its flagship green hydrogen and ammonia project in Villeta, Paraguay. This two-phase endeavour aims to establish a capacity of 145MW, leveraging the 14GW Itaipu Binacional hydroelectric dam operated by Paraguay's state-owned power utility, ANDE.
Villeta has been slated to produce up to 270,000 tons per year of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) fertiliser from Q4 2025, displacing up to 500,000 tons of CO2 per year in emissions.
And a close look at the latest media reports (below) suggests you dismiss this entrepreneurial outfit at your own peril, as it has the management and connections to deliver its ground-breaking objectives and achieve much more besides.
(Reported on March 18, 2024)
“Similarly, Latin American countries Chile and Paraguay are working to establish green hydrogen plants. Chile has already signed agreements with the EU, France, and Belgium, while PARAGUAY IS PLANNING TO EXPORT ITS PRODUCTS TO ENGLAND.”
https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/green-hydrogen-production-the-turning-point-of-the-nepalese-economy/
“IDB Invest has placed a US$128mn request from the AIM-listed firm (Atome Energy) in its pipeline of potential financing.”
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/financing-in-the-pipeline-for-paraguay-green-hydrogen-project
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Kld1. I can only test the depth in stocks I hold size. Stocks 99% of the time work in certain numbers. In this stock it will be 2500, 3750,5000, 7500, 10000,15000, 25000, 37500, 50000. So say you have a holding of 15555, if you get a quote to sell the lot it also means the mm's will be actually bidding at least 25000. You probably already know this. Point is here you can sell 25000 online and at the close it was a whopping 58.11p bid and I tested the buy limit and every single one was NT to buy even a tiny £100's worth, real squeeze which has been going on since it got back above 50p. My bigger holding is MEN so naturally I want this to do well so hopefully MEN will follow but investment stocks never trade anywhere near NAV value but there is still a gap to fill there especially when it's Atom holding alone is worth close to 40p now and they sit 25p bid
How where do you see the depth of the market
Honestly test the limits here they are sensational. 55-60p...can now sell for 58.11p for size and cannot even get a quote for £100's worth to buy even though 3 mm's sit at 60p offer 3000 each. Got to be a buyer order