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I think this will be a huge year for Atome, when investors understand what green CAN is, the part it plays in food security and the green transition (agriculture emits more CO2 than shipping and aviation combined), and the economics. It will bring price stability to producers and demand for Green CAN will be off the scale, before you even consider EU carbon taxes. The challenge is manufacturing enough to meet demand.
We should see a huge re-rating as we go through Q1 and beyond. A long term hold for me.
Olivier Mussat, ATOME's CEO, commented: "The Board is confident that 2024 will be a transformational year for ATOME and we are grateful to the team and our strategic partners who have continued to work throughout the end of the year in order to make rapid progress on the engineering, financial and commercial fronts.
"Whilst taking slightly longer than we originally hoped, the work and de-risking during this extended time has allowed for significant benefit in enhancing the efficacy of our first 145MW project in Paraguay as well as enabling beneficial impact on design, offtake, and financing. We are confident that in this Q1, further key project milestones will be achieved, and we look forward to taking FID on the Villeta project once these workstreams are completed.
"At the same time, work is continuing in parallel on other projects and in particular Costa Rica which, combined with Yguazu in Paraguay, provides a pipeline of projects extending to world-scale in excess of half a gigawatt."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/atome/news/rns/story/xj7q57x
Actually I rather hope all that is happening now is seeing if there is any additional margin to squeeze out of the trade to keep the IRR as high as possible. The one thing I have never asked is the duration of the fixed cost of electricity as I guess the product cost duration will have to match. As far as build out repayment is concerned I'm not sure and what is the lifespan I guess on thins like electrolyses . Stupid of me to not of asked
Piltick probably the reason for little movement in the sp was the missed target of Q4 for the news and is now Q1 2024. Over promised under delivered unfortunately for now.
@Piltick, the RNS is super positive and really confirms that everything is on track, and will likely happen.
But it's still impossible to actually model earnings, ROI, break even, etc. We need the FID, project financing and offtake details to understand this, and also understand if there will be any further dilution along the way.
My feeling is that this will be massive, but we can't proove it until the Q1 announcements start to drop (so just a matter of weeks).
When that happens, I'm hopeful well see significant SP movement and SP climb as production gets nearer/operational execution risk decreases through 2024/2025.
So right now, it's an awesome time to load up for the brave!
I would have thought that this great update should deserve a better market reaction than this!
I think we have a giant company here in the making but until the construction of plant gets underway the paper dreams will not be heavily invested in by the market. Long way to go but the company is travelling at speed. My prediction is that a large oil major will snap this up as part of their esg drive,
Highlighted the de risk approach with turnkey EPC.
A great update, very happy with the progress.
I wonder if it's too low profile right now. They did a great job with their comms to woo PIs last year, lots of presnetations, Q&As.
There's so much potential here with the leadership (eg Peter Levine who took Imperial Enery from 25p to an acquisition exit at £12.50 - a 5000% return), directors buying in huge amounts (Oliver Muscat buying £750k at just over £1 in March 2023), and their proposition (making Green Amonia/CAN, for a consistently low price and immediately selling it into a $multi-billion global market, a huge part of which is on their doorstep in S.America).
The problem is that it's a leap of faith until the economics are clear. This will all change when we can model revenue, break even and ROI, which we'll be able to do when they publish the FID and possible Offtake Agreements (which was obviously due in Q42023, and therefore will drop any day).
Until that happens, it's a leap of faith with feels like it's just you and me in the room kld1. Let's hope we both get rich.
I might of miss heard but in the discussion video at COP28 OM says building a billion $ company. If a IRR above 25 then he may well be right and they can lock this all in before even producing. With base load electricity needed for this type of production and for it to be green there are no other countries in the world that can really offer what is being offered.
If I'm right which might not be the case I suspect there is not a market maker short of this stock
I wonder what you might have tp pay for a block of 250000 shares north of 80 pence I suspect
I agree @kld1.
And this is what gives me more confidence, in March 2023:
"Olivier Mussat has today purchased 720,000 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a purchase price corresponding to the Company's most recent placing price of £1.062 per Ordinary Share off-market from Alpha Energies Invest GmbH ("Alpha"), a company owned wholly and beneficially by ATOME Chairman, Peter Levine. The purchased Ordinary Shares represent 2% of the issued share capital of the Company."
Always good when Directors put significant skin in the game, and my average is way lower.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/atome/news/rns/story/w03l88w
Some activity today must say somewhat surprised at where the price stands thought it be at least around £1 given what's coming
From what we have been told either through an RNS or through other statements I am hoping that it is a case of choosing the best partners for finance, off take and build out that best fits with the companies vision including phase two. So best to make sure everything is lined up given the size of these projects.
This was expected in Q42023, is overdue, should drop any day:
"NEXT STEPS (Paraguay | Phase 1 | Villeta Development - Latin America’s largest green ammonia-to-fertiliser facility by 2025
- FEED completion and Environmental Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) in Q4 2023
- Final Investment Decision by Q4 2023
- EPC contractor packages identified and tendered, construction to commence by the end of 2023"
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://wp-atome-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/09/23-10-11-ATOM-Investor-Presentation-vfin7-1.pdf
They said they were expecting the FID by year end 2023, and during trading updates said interest was high and they were super confident based on discussions. News should drop any day now which should be a game changer and start the journey upwards to production/revenue by end of 2025 and beyond.
Suspect this will get a lot of intreest when the FID is announced.
I have added a few also. Lets hope things move in the right direction
In fact I just did.
I've been following this for a while now, I bought in because the proposition/model is compelling and makes a lot of sense.
Actually manufacturing an 'oven ready' CAN product with huge demand on the doorstep, where existing fertiliser has a significant carbon footprint and price volativity (Russia/Ukraine) is very compelling. Plus the Directors bought in in very large amounts at over £1. Plus they have a larger project to scale up further in the pipeline too.
It's a gamble because the economics are unclear. We have no idea of the finace & production costs.
This should all change if they announce a FID and offtake agreement where we can see payback periods, are reassured there will be little/no dilution and can model earnings.
Until this happens it remains a very speculative buy, but the price should turbo with positive announcements.
My hope is that this will pay back big time later this year, but with the potential scale up this will be a very long term hold for me.
I'm tempted to buy more at this price.
Actually in the early days I believe it did dip down towards 50. Anyhow a current Assessment would be they have done and achieved everything they have set out to do bar one which according to the company is really just crossing the t and doting the I. Cheap electricity (base load), close to source, 100 year old proven chemical process, short supply chains in both directions and ample demand for product.
Current downside small cap , ownership concentration, insufficient promotion not good for fund investment stock trades like it is on life support
Near all time low share price wise
I was hoping for some solid announcements on project finacing and offtake before the year end.
All recent updates have been bullish on progress and level of interest, fingers crossed they're finalising a small print and make an announcement of Villeta financing very soon. This should bring real clarity to the project economics, and hopefully enable investors to value Atome (and significantly lift the SP).
Try this
https://youtu.be/4ZQ3pjCmWEM