Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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RSI(relative strength index), bullish positive divergence, from pivot origin on 28/2/24. The target sp, is 87.1-89.4, of which the higher figured represents potential skew in volatility. The positive divergence in RSI, will be deemed to have unwound when the target sp range, is achieved. There is overhead supply, which represents trading volume at the higher price level of 90, which would be expected to provide resistance to further sp, increase. DYOR.
They're fairly predictable. A marginal weakening of NAV and another 2p divi at beginning of June.
Hi Both, I'm expecting an update and dividend declaration this week, 2p is what we all expect.
Last year was a Wednesday (26th) , and 2022 was a Thursday (21st) but with much more going on. I increased my holdings greatly on Monday, hopefully not too early if there is a large FTSE retrace, but as we've noted, the low 80s is rock bottom on our chart.
Trotsky, My apologies I was looking at the AEW site and that was date of their guidance document. Will just have to wait and see when they update us. Rgds, S
Saintly, They issued the NAV and dividend declaration on 26 April last year.
Last year they issued the Mar 23 quarterly update on 11 May 23 so I would imagine it will be with us within the next few weeks. Rgds, S
They're a bit late by historical standards; failing the end of last week, I would have expected a NAV and dividend declaration yesterday/today but it may not be too late today. Although unusual, they have made announcements mid-afternoon before now. Regardless, I would expect an announcement this week.
Anyone know when the next NAV update is? Just building a position here at a great entry point.
Firm holder and believer in AEW. Admittedly we have not hit the dizzy heights we would all have liked but AEW still continues to offer a very decent return and more so over quarterly dividends. Certain rental properties are seemingly out of fashion at the moment hence the low valuation on REIT's but the income return certainly makes up for it. To get in at this level and enjoy, to me, a very decent return is a very positive at this time. Eventually the markets will return to former levels - it is surely when and not if! Just my thoughts. So glad to have got in to REIT's with their excellent returns, quarterly incomes, in most cases, and a great way to increase funds in my ISA. I appreciate REIT's may not be for everyone but for me they and AEW are a winner. Now a holder of 5 REIT's out of my 30 plus stocks so you can see I am committed or I should be committed lol. Continued good fortune to all AEW holders, those considering getting in or those just watching. Rgds, S
That ‘market tide’ is certainly the core issue, along with interest rates. The question is are both those likely to change? By Q3 this could be a very different picture…. Timing, timing!
That 9%+ rate could look very attractive come the summer
Closed a decent holding in this at 97p that I held for years, so starting to look very tempting but fair comment REITS are a hard call at the moment
Got out of this and RGL at the top end but got back into GSF and it went south again
My finger hovered over the buy button today but I don't trust it not to drop further. Opted for BATS instead for size and yield.
Certainly is in the bargain basement. Dividend of 2p expected to be announced in a couple of weeks as well.
Yield is almost 10% on investing today. IMO the SP is lowering with the tide of the market.
Looks like it's in bargain territory right now. Someone is unhappy.
One of the better quality reits with limited office exposure. Has always paid a good dividend
Just looking at AEWU
From 28th Feb 2023 : NAV of £166.24 million or 104.93 pence per share as at 31 December 2022
SP was several % discount to NAV and then sold down to 92p by March 31st 2023.
From 25th Jan 2024 : NAV of £164.02 million or 103.53 pence per share as at 31 December 2023
Feb 2024, SP has already sold down to 90p so now at around the historical lower band of SP movements before CV19.
2p Dividend looks secure enough, so IMO this looks like a March buying opportunity especially if the SP dips into the mid 80s with sentiment likely lower due to the Portsmouth sale, Wilko and the cinema asset.
https://youtu.be/V-u1Tqmt6HU
Telegraph: Goldman Sachs has urged investors to stop betting against UK property stocks as the market shows signs of recovery.
Economists at the Wall Street bank are predicting a rebound in the real estate sector as interest rate pressures ease.
This marks a reversal as Goldman had previously warned clients against investing in commercial real estate companies as valuations plummeted.
Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs said:
The real estate market is holding up: housing prices edged up last month amid encouraging signs that mortgage rates are starting to come down.
Goldman struck an optimistic tone as its economists also revealed forecasts showing interest rates will fall to 3pc by mid-2025.
In a memo to investors on Sunday, the bank said Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to announce a cut to interest rates in August before further reductions in consecutive quarters.
Ms Bell said:
UK consumer confidence also rose sharply, outperforming expectations and raising hopes of higher spending on the festive season.
Her comments came as new data from Rightmove showed that sellers were still slashing asking prices in December, indicating that the market’s upturn is yet to filter through.
The average selling price of houses fell by 1.9pc in December to £355,177.
Last summer, on one of the quarterly calls (which I really like), I asked how AEWU's policies would evolve on ESG as I had been purging my portfolio as much as possible of companies/funds that adopt ESG policies. The answer I got from the deputy PM was that it is very important to incorporate ESG because it was very warm in London.
Apart from the naive, but rather cute reply, one year on ESG is collapsing as the fraud it is. Multiple states in the US have pulled billions from ESG managers/ESG funds forcing Vanguard and Blackrock to retract both in practise and in narrative. Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffet and Elon Musk agree ESG is b/s (essentially) and last week S/P 500 dropped the ESG scale:
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/sp-global-drops-esg-alphanumeric-scale-2023-08-08/
My remaining ESG exposure is essentially with three UK REITs one of which is AEWU. While I am aware there are UK laws on net zero that needs to be followed for the time being, I am interested in hearing from AEWU how they evaluate this situation, how they can minimise exposure to forced ESG investment decisions within the framework of UK laws and regulations and how they may be preparing for the day net zero may potentially be abandoned in the UK.
I like AEWU and while I was inclined to reduce exposure a year ago, if the collapse of ESG is finally coming to Europe (perhaps questionable at this time) I may be inclined to double my AEWU position if we can get some thoughtful strategic answers on the next call. That's it.
Tonio - was indeed GEM and I got in and out before xd as it hadn’t reached my xd txt - worked well for a change as made quick 10% and share fell badly xd / heavily into DEC which goes xd this week quarterly currently paying 15% it has fallen badly after recent cap raise but I think it offers a great entrance price / DYOR
Hi Gavster, Fair Oaks's high yield reflects its high risk. According to its latest annual report it's (indirectly) invested in bonds rated at BB or below in the US and Europe and, although the trailing 12-month US default rate rose from (only) 0.29% to 0.72% during 2022, I note that the US default rate is expected to rise to between 2% and 2.49% during 2023 (I wouldn't be surprised to see Europe follow suit). I also note that although the share price has been fairly stable since last October, it's nevertheless c25% down on 12 months ago. That said, 2022 was a vintage year for most dividend paying shares, price wise.
Hi Trotsky.
Fair Oaks has been a great investment for me in the last year. The SP barely moves during the quarters, and though I've seen the SP go down with the weight of an ongoing buyback scheme (reason for the drop from 2.5 to 2), the relative stability is refreshing in todays markets.
TGA also offered a large divi, but both GEM and TGA are subject to large ex-div movements.
I note that Fair Oaks Income 2021 Shares (an IT) is supposedly offering >18% currently but, given that it dropped its last two quarter dividends to 2c from 2.5c previously, the forward yield looks more likely to be 16%. Don't know much about it but it appears to invest in company bonds which may, or may not, have a higher risk of default
GEM went xd today offering around 18%
Income of 18%? Which share is that?
Discount to Nav of 7p.
NAV of £167.10 million or 105.48 pence per share as at 31 March 2023 (31 December 2022: £166.24 million or 104.93 pence per share).
The gap between dividend and earnings is still a concern but closing since last report.
This is a hold/add for me as art of my portfolio.
Investing on the premise that earnings becomes higher than the div so the discount to NAV decreases.