Hi Temple and all, I'm sold out as well currently (Sold at an average around 104/105 and invested into dips elsewhere in my portfolio on the 15th to 19th July caused by the recent oil price dip, frowning whilst on holiday). BP / RDS (and others like GKP) showed dips of about 10% in those few days yet here at Seplat the SP only dipped 2 to 3%. It was like a slow delayed reaction going on. Any ideas as to why the SP would hold despite the popular market hitting a panic button ? Was it the devalued currency counteracting the drop ? I will be considering reinvestment here when it hits below 100p.
All very well but the relentless equity issues surely put on dampeners. Price stagnating a bit, expected to be at 350 by now. Dividend is still healthy though but so far no run up to ex-div this Thursday.
Exactly DLG I've had posts taken down for explanations to what is going on and why / when to sell here and then called a deramper. Imagine a company that cares nothing about shareholder value or return. They will issue shares to infinity. The SP will spike up and allow those (a closed circle) who bought the issued shares to take profits and get out, employing and using a mass of ramptastic rumour, news, presentations and posters to suck in retail investors to provide the liquidity on a story dished out for years, higher grades, higher profits etc etc. Pump, dump then rinse and repeat. For RMM. I banged the drum here over 10 years ago, when the SP was 100s of % above todays. Same game, different players. May the lesson be cruel but learned. GL.
Exactly Cong. Their plan is to get rid of the high cost wells next time the oil price sustains high levels, which will attract the buyers. By then BP's Div and SP could be back to expected levels. Personally I'd like to see them do some takeovers, cash (and shares once the SP is back up) like SSE for example, self proclaimed masters of wind farms that would help BP develop those areas it bought the rights. Cheers and GL.
Hi Compound. I disagree with some of your post. Inflation is now arriving into the market place, meaning lower share prices and higher yields. BP (and RDS) share prices are where they are for one simple reason, dividend and yield, and they are fairly priced. The spike in oil prices is arguably that, a spike, but the market will see this as largely irrelevant to our SP unless the dividend follows suit. The reason the SP would go north is on the expectancy of Looney increasing the dividend, which looked reasonable after the recent RDS announcement as BP will tandem this. Pension funds do not ignore dividend, it is hugely important as they have to pay them out constantly to their pensioners. The FTSE is seen internationally as a dinosaur index, not much interest especially since the UK decided to shoot itself in the foot economically by putting up trade barriers with a large part of its trading partners. I'm still holding on here as I do feel there will be an increase and a jump in SP after next results have sunk in. All IMO.
Results look fantastic. Dividend could easily be over 1p. Political situation is diabolical. This is weighing heavy on the price. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-57818215 Anyone in South Africa to comment ? How bad is this compared to previous situations ?
Back to 99/100p, and divi imminent. Like a clock... Good to see when I've had several % knocked off many shares last two days. My first year investing in funds/trusts and I'm finding them more and more attractive.
Hi Lutra. Thanks for that. Yes, that is food for thought indeed. Do you have a link or can you point to what proportions of revenue come from such long term contracts and how long they last ? It does put a dampener on the notion that the revenues would track up with inflation but it also shows that a high amount of contracts like this around UK industry will also be reigns on inflation and for Bluefield, it's effects on revenues would be delayed rather than non-existent. Still OK with my holdings here, though small, like others I imagine, regular income and relative stability is value within my portfolio when I see the large traditional companies and shares encountering great turbulence and dividend problems.
RE: what chance we break 335 mark soon?07 Jul 2021 11:30
MarkGO The yield is a very solid (no longer resilient) 4.8% There is nothing "Leper" about that. The combo of divi/buybacks can adjust. If the dividend increases then the SP will shoot up dramatically as the market adjusts to a similar yield. If buybacks happen instead, then the progress up will be much slower and lower. The yield is good, higher than RDS. The SP is exactly about right for what BP's current way of returning cash to shareholders is.
Hi EmeraldCarrots. Yes, I agree. A 400p SP would need to backed up by the same yield as today's, which would mean a dividend increase from $5.25c to $6.5c, which IMO would be acceptable and sustainable. There will be much speculation now going into the next results, as long as (of course) if OPEC agree a proper deal, wider market forces, Brent price, pound dollar rate, the weather, football results etc etc etc
Shell hints to increase dividend... The BP "Party line" is exactly this "The combination of a fixed dividend and using free cash for share buybacks will result, in time, in total shareholder distributions even higher than our historic dividend levels" If BP increase the dividend to keep up with Shell as their closest rivals, then they want to make sure it will be a permanent increase. (I've been slated on this BB for saying this)
"increase total shareholder distributions to within the range of 20-30% of CFFO, starting at the Q2 results announcement." Reading through it I have to admire the way big corporations can be ambiguous, direct, unambiguous, indirect all at the same time. Anyway. we will get more back depending on what the cash flow will be, but since the oil price is over £50 this is promising. "Royal Dutch Shell benefits from that rise. According to an update note from December, the company’s cash flow from operations (CFFO) price sensitivity is estimated to be around $6bn per year for each $10 price movement in a barrel of Brent. That means RDSB very likely makes billions more in CFFO given the rally so far in the commodity." From https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/01/25/why-did-royal-dutch-shell-shares-surge-70/
Hi Adv11... Already half regretting being organised early as I took it from Shell and missed out on 1% so far today. Still, it's ready and time will tell if the return will be good enough here. Inflation is still some way off regards major depreciation of capital, but IMO the dividends would also increase with the same inflation effects.
That was nice. Surely this is the jolt up to do with the currency rates changes. In my experience with other mid size cappers the SP has been slow to react to positive situations, from a newish holder, is that just the case here ?
Just put some profits aside to take up this allocation. Good points Lutra, as long as the recent decline was all in anticipation of this offer. Long term IMO we a takeover target for the larger energy companies.
Which is pretty exciting if you believe that the resilient low dividend due to low oil prices from a year ago will be cast aside and the dividend can start being raised back to proper levels, thereby thundering the SP back to 400p, 500p... And not exciting if you think otherwise, as the uplift from self-serving buybacks will be as captivating as watching paint dry. Cheers and GL.