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That's over $700 per ounce profit. Looking at a current earnings rate of $140m.
That's a current P/E of around 3.5 What's reasonable for PAF ? Historically it was around 6 before extra political tension and load shedding. If the market prices in a P/E of 5 then SP should get to around 28p, P/E of 4 then an SP of around 23p.
Let's hope the GP sustains.
JDCBC
As I just pointed out if they spent the entire $42m on shares they would then have to find $37m more to pay the dividends on the rest.
Let me put this as simply as possible so that everyone understands.
THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN TENDER ANY SHARES IS BY SPENDING MORE THAN $42M
Fullstop. Do the maths.
Blacksteel, your maths is totally up the spout.
Shares in issue = 47.58m
Cost of dividend = 47.58m x 87.5c = $41.6m (which rounded up is why the figure $42m exisits.
How many shares can be bought for $42m - Well at 935p or $11.87 = 3.5m shares.
So that leaves 47.58 - 3.5m = 44.08m shares left which all require the dividend (= 44.08m x 87.5c ) = $37.58m
Where exactly will the $37m come from ?
I still don't believe there is any abuse to warrant reporting, it's all kind of normal for AIM, late reporting and whatnot. It all evens out in the end IMO
The most important question for me... Once the numbers are adjusted, will the dividend be much higher than the usual nearly one cent. With these gold prices they can affiord to pay off extra debt and pay us more too.
Power is still a problem though. Imagine what their output would be without load shedding.
https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga
Hi Damofarl.
The problem is that DEC can only tender shares if they spend over the $42m allocated for Divi or equivalent.
They definitely have the $42m.
Blacksteel. I should add that they can afford to tender practically NO shares at all if they stay under $42m.
Blacksteel. Do the maths.
There is literally Zero spare cash available to buy any shares above the $42m after paying dividends or equivalent.
Hi DavidCharles.
That's the exact sums I did a week or so ago.
BUT it's even worse. The only reason why those 380k shares can exist, is because the amount needed to pay for the dividends has been rounded up to the nearest million, to get $42m. So that 380,000 has been bought with extra cash above whats needed for the dividends.
The ONLY way that they can exercise the tender is by spending cash ABOVE whats needed for the dividends or the equivalent.
How great is this ! Gold is going stellar, and PAF finally got some inertia. just been away for a few days.
The profit potential has gone up by more than 25% with this move so the SP should follow suit.
I have a feeling my next selling target of 23p will be much sooner than I thought, so I will deliberate at that time.
If we're 26p by late April, then apart from being still undervalued for Mintails, I'd have paid for my extension just on PAF shares and still have 100s of 1000s left.
Late 20s....
Exactly Davidcharles. The maths doesn't add up.
Dec must have money above the $42m set aside for dividends to pay for shares. So either its a nonsense, and there will be almost none in the tender, or they'll be a bunch and Dec have a larger amount of cash to buy them than the market realises. There's no chance any II's would take this up. This is entirely to spook shorters, share lenders and get rid of some retail holders, that's IMO.
Hi HarrisM
Agree totally, results for Bluefield and UKW, also both showing great discounts to NAV. Bluefield just announced a buyback and UKW's is ongoing. I would not be surprised to see NESF announce a buyback whilst this discount is ongoing.
The problem then is that M&A action might well come from abroad, but BP and SSE could be interested. We'll see, but I'm not counting on it. Buy weakness and DRIP dividends. Rates coming down in 2024 will be great for the sector too. Interesting comments by tichtich about the NAV calculations on the Bluefield board, here https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=BSIF&share=Bluefield-Solar
Hi damofarl, and today was also ex-dividend day, and a 2% drop back to NAV, 57.25 cents.
Yep, missed out on a shopping trip or two selling a tranche yesterday, but hey, I needed the cash for a building project.
The next time I'll need some cash from investments will be mid to late April. 23p would be nice !!
Well it all looks hunky dory to me. 6 cents total dividend, and no doubt a few questions about the Exxon deal at lunchtime. They have the cash at the ready so good to go, maybe some shares deals in the background still ongoing by powers that be. They've proved beyond doubt, if they ever had to prove it, to be the right company to take those assets forward. Seplat has been and is such a good investment in my portfolio,
Yep.. I sold some at 18.6 today. If it goes up so be it, I'll use the cash for the builders.
The Short Sellers are mainly LSE based so the daily pattern has recently been sell in London, buy in New York.
Also London has constant outflows since Brexit so if the pattern stays the the morning will be a sell off to under 1000p then a rise in the afternoon.
However, ex-div being on Thursday could mean, and we all hope it does, extra strength in both exchanges and a finish above 1100.
Hi Selpec et al, just looked at that trade with the price late 18s but I'm holding off. I can get an immediate quote for £50k worth of shares which is a chunky trade for PAF and very large trade for me. It means shares are in demand.
Also POG has just broken above a decreasing trend line on the 4 hour chart.
The next resistance looks like 19.2/19.3 so I'll wait until that or if the POG continues that recent down trend.
We'll see. GL
Well the maths doesn't even add up IMO. The offer is to buy shares up to a maximum spend of the dividend, which even if they did would be less than 10% of the shares held and still mean they have to spend over $35m on divs anyway.
Apart from being an offer aimed directly at lenders of shares, then what is it, confusion to shorters, or profit for anyone who bought recently under 935, which is a price they reserve the right to change anyway, or just that, a way to get any numbers of shares canceled, which I agree is a good thing.
The next reporting we can pretty well take as being a boring steady ship with another dividend announced.
The gas price seems to be the only blip, but that's the point of those long term hedges, so the effect for us is not that bad, unlike at Chesapeake Energy for example.
Yet again the main concerns become the declination rate of the operating wells to keep servicing debts and divs, and potential future fines/litigation for leaking wells.
IMO with all these hedges in place, they could announce the next 3 or 4 dividends and dates. That would put a rocket up these short sellers and bring the SP back to some sort of reasonable level.
Well, I do not understand the point of this tender unless it's to confuse shorters.
On the basis that DEC do not have several hundred million dollars at their disposal, which is the amount required to purchase a significant percentage of their shares from their institutional holders, then this offer must surely be aimed at people who wish to sell their shares this week. Buyers from 900p for example.
Short positions are increasing daily.
If anything I might be tempted to sell then trade before the ex-div gap down, if there is a run up to ex-div, but not to take up this offer.