The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Can we get past 22.3p ?
Surely this will be a record quarter if guidance production has kept up.
Hi 88v8
Complete sympathy, at over 100p in old money the company narrative was "maintaining the dividend level is the highest importance' etc. SP trashed in a year and shows how much Rusty and the company BOD can ultimately be trusted. The writing was on the wall for months and none of us are really surprised. I do think this will cause the short positions to close however because they bet on the company to go bust and that is not happening. The yield is attractive enough for new investors, so I actually think the SP will settle well above 1000p, in the weeks ahead.
If one is sitting on a 50% or more capital loss, is it really worth selling ? Or sticking to collect a lower divi for the next 3 years with the short closures, buybacks and lowering debt fundamentals providing the SP lift instead. I'll be sticking and DRIP the dividends. Buying more DEC shares from now to lower averages will not be considered "Watering the weeds" IMO.
And the tender offer terminated (no surprise there for me as it was nonsense imo), the SP will not be recovering to levels a year ago any time soon, but debt will be lower and the business will not be going down. Shorts could well have close.
Hi Mulder.
I can't see much in the news either. the usual caution about US rate decision / SA economy etc.
Trade-wise, I can only think this must be just profit taking after the recent rise. There is strong resistance at 22.2/22.3 and touching it again seems to have caused a sell off.
Hi nimrod22. Will any of these be incrementing their potential production by 25% like PAF in 2024 ?
The Mintails project is set to start in a few months and expected to deliver 50k oz per annum.
Yeah, it's odd that people haven't piled into miners (yet).
Gold up 8% since Valentines which should mean PAF up by about 18%, which actually it is (as each percentage point means a bit more than double the percentage as an increase in profits).
That said, it's the nature of the gold price consistently averaging above 2000 since December that like others I would think makes miners still a bargain.
IMO It means none of Mintails is yet priced in, so surely another big boost late this year.
The breakout is now confirmed on the 5 year chart too. There was a long downward trend line that joined the three previous highs and today's price is now well above that trend line.
Andy. Obviously not.
But clearly your maths is inept for you to ask such a stupid question.
If only 1% of share holdings opt the tender.
It doesn't ever work out.
The only way dec can tender any shares at all is by spending more than $42m.
Even if only 1% are tendered, the number of shares they can buy can never cover the number that will still require the dividend.
The spend required will ALWAYS be more than the 42m.
Andy = idiot
I am 100% correct.
You can work through any amount of figures in any way you choose.
Andy.
Let me work this through slowly for you, and the other 8 people who ticked up your post, who are clearly also inept at basic maths.
Total amount of spend = $42m. Dividends and Tender.
Total Cost of Dividends if nobody elects to tender would be $42m (it's just under but we're rounding up)
Lets say 10% of the share holdings elect to tender.
So dividends are paid using 90% of the $42m, leaving $4.2m left.
How many shares can $4.2m buy at 935p, can they buy the 10% of the 47.58m shares who elected to tender ? that would be 10% x 47.58m x 935p = £44.49m. Answer : No.
So how many can they buy, well it's $4.2m which is around 570,000 Shares.
But they can't because if they do, that would leave 4.19m shares that need to be paid the dividend.
Which comes to $3.66m.
So they pay that, and that leaves $0.54m only, that they can spend on shares...
But they can't because if they do, like before, they woukd need to pay the dividend on the shares they cannot buy.
So you see.
It is 100% true that the number of shares that DEC can tender is ZERO, if the total spend on tendering and the dividend is $42m,
Andy144, notrex, do the maths please and catch up. It's about GCSE standard so should not be difficult.
The number of shares that DEC can tender with a total spend of dividends + tender of $42m is ZERO.
Come on, it's not difficult to get your head around.
SP is 21.4p as I write with gold at an eye watering $2157 (£1,691) !!
Mulder you were right about that 20p sticking point. That's no past it seems.
Amazing gold price currently, the bulls are out in force, everything from $2200 to $20000 predicted.
Some classics from our old friend Peter Schiff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNXLgczF8UQ
Mulder As you know I've also been invested in PAF since 2010. That PE of 10 you're referring must be the spike in August 2020, the SP got to 28p and gold 2070. If gold get's momentum in a similar fashion then the SP here would spike to well over 40p !
Assuming everyone has done the calcs and caught up with the fact that the only way DEC can buy any decent number of shares is by spending more than $42m then can anyone suggest what exactly this tender offer is all about ?
If DEC had stated that they'll spend $62m, then this would mean they're willing to by $20m with of shares, like a buyback in one go, but why bother doing a tender and just buyback the shares.
Obviously if by total they mean the sum of the Dividends and the Tender together is $42m then the number of shares they can buy is so small, so why bother with it at all? If it's to confuse short sellers, it clearly has not worked.
The only indicator I can think of is DEC will get a definitive number of people willing to sell their shares at this price, and by also knowing the number of shares on loan to shorters will be able to strategise a financial method of outing the short sellers, or know how much they can spend on a buyback.
Sorry TheWednesday, wrote the last one before seeing your latest post.
If anyone can show the maths workings for any other way this can play out then I'd be very interested to read through it.
The big question has to be why this offer has been done.. I can only think that it is some sort of warning to shorters and a way of cutting down retail investor numbers.
Also noting the language used by Rusty where he states the best use of money is to buy back shares contradicts the previous pledge that the dividend is the most important. The next results must surely be another steady ship, but IMO the biggest indicator as to if the SP can shoot north will be the degradation rates. Less than or 10% is what we need.
TheWebnesday, yourexample is really up the spout.
"The dividend entitlement for the 600 shares would be used to buy some of the 600 shares."
I repeat, THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN BUY ANY SHARES IS BY SPENDING MORE THAN $42m.
TheWednesday. I am 100% Correct.
Any shares not bought will still be paid the dividend.
Well today's RNS is again total b0||0cks. That's if you thought the previous showing a few rock hammers wasn't pathetic enough.
We're going to drill here here and here and show you pictures from 2003, back when there was actual work going on and real live people employed mining and exploring gold.
Mining.. That's a word isn't it. How's that going Stifano ?
Actually, Adjusting AISC for the new lower guidance and the discount to GP for selling makes the 700s.
But the point is clear, upwards.
I am still concerned as to why did the company issued such a lower guidance for these 6 months. When they were coy and silent before the SP got smashed by 30% due to the load shedding.
Exactly Richt9999
Which means in order to tender any shares they'll have to come up with extra cash, above the 42m. They have not specified how many shares they can tender, but if the ceiling total spend on divs/tender is 42m then the answer is simple, zero.