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This will help shine the light here.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/rio-tinto-buy-arcadium-lithium-67-bln-2024-10-09/#:~:text=Oct%209%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Rio,%245.85%20per%20share%2C%20it%20said.

Yes, I did put that, it surely would be pleasant to see a takeover RNS of 100p a share one morning.

Can you tell us what is the similarity you see with Surface Transforms?

I can guess the basics being Jam tomorrow then share issues and options made on the promise of that jam, then the slow or non-delivery means an SP drifting downwards. But that's the story of countless small cappers.

A concern I have is that in the USA big companies tend to rule their respective industries, so a small specialist like VEL trying to get ahead with regulatory compliance could mysteriously find themselves constantly at the back of the queue, or on the "to do later" pile, whilst the larger companies eventually catch up, compete or takeover if there is profit to be had.

Hi All. Well said Jim.

Delays delays and jam tomorrow. Although I'm steadily invested here it does sound like the same old small cap story.

I guess it's good for the SP currently that there are so few investors and so little news you can could trade positions at the pace of a shrubbery growing. But that's also frustrating when good news arrives. I sold a large chunk weeks ago at 45p and my limit reinvesting buy at 40p kicked in this morning whilst having breakfast, so got to be happy with a lower average for the next long wait, however news flow is so slow I fear a drift lower. Emailing them about this could help. The US regulation system I fear is choked by 'Influence'. "This unexpected delay is due to temporary resource constraints between both the customer and the OEM relating to the review and sign off of the approval documentation". We just have to wait, but I'm sure persistance from Velocity and the buyers will win through. They are jumping through the hoops, though just not as fast as we hope.

https://www.velocity-composites.com/company-news/velocity-composites-achieves-global-industry-certification-in-the-us/

With gold ever soaring, that's almost 15% up in a week for anyone who bought PAF on the announcement day of the relatively disappointing dividend. Amazing stuff. The dip below the trend line that happened was completely ignored but what likely caused the drop to 28.3p on the day. Even a retrace to the 200MA is still above 29p.

Well done to anyone that did bought that dip. I'm still with my core holding and 20% cash waiting on a POG retrace that looks never likely to happen.

This is the LSE, South Africa and PAF is a long established dividend payer, so they understand how important a return on investment must be. Have no idea why some are obsessed with this being a growth share.

Market disagrees, as do I. Down 1.4p. I've been invested here for about 15 years, so I know the fundamentals and I'm used to these ups and downs. If there's a retrace in the coming months due to the low yield and the wait for a year (or two) for the next dividends, which must be at least 3 cents to justify today's SP, then IMO see it as an opportunity to load up (I would eye the mid 20s). As far as POG, much depends if the dollar weakness continues.

Hi Paltryk221, based upon what fundamentals ? With UK holders having a yield of only 2.5% after the 20% tax on the dividend IMO the SP has already got much of the 2025/2026 production increase cooked into it already. A sustained POG above $2500 can keep the SP up, but what else ?

No surprises and all pretty much as expected, except the level of the dividend. I know the message from the company (via their brokers) was a cent but I expected a divi more at a level of 2 cents considering the amount of cash flowing into the company in recent months. The 1.2 cents represents a yield of only 3% on the current SP.

Mintails coming online dictates this lower than normal yield but to this extent ?

We could retrace to mid 20s if there is any sort of retrace in POG down to support $2300 for example IMO, it's that and perhaps the recent North African takeover news at CEY that will keep us above 29p.

Last lows were 832 (Jan) and 852 (March).

I'll definitely be buying lower than 850..

In fact two of them, a few days ago the 50MA move below the 100MA and today the 20MA crossed under the 200MA.

So sentiment is rock bottom and the trend can go on, but most significantly, there's should be a buying opportunity for traders and investors alike. The more arguments going on here is also a fairly good sign that a buying opportunity is here.

Buy when things are sentiment is poor, sell when sentiment is good.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

Maybe she's moving on. She's kept 10k shares from what I can see, which looks like a free holding. She's held many non-director roles at various companies. Doesn't look like it's impacted any sentiment.

Hi. By definition increasing the number of shares in a company IS dilution.

I think what you may be trying to say is that every share issue by any company doesn't immediately decrease the value, because the NAV increases by the amount they charged for the shares thereby canceling each other out.

The contention with DEC is because a vast number of holders have seen this story over and over again, with each dilution happening at a lower and lower share price. The real problem with the business is the declination rates that are leading to this high frequency in acquisitions. I suggest that this is the largest reason for so many shorting positions here.

I still have shares in DEC, but to honest I have no interest in 'watering the weeds' so will likely look to trade this poor sentiment and sell the next time it is high.

31.4 p Wow.. Even target prices are reached, and I sell a load to pay for building work, this is still highest value in my portfolio. Roll on high dividends.

Interesting conversation on there a couple of weeks ago.

BM revenue from batteries has gone down to levels seen early in 2024 again and thats with significant delays in getting new batteries connected to the grid. GRID at least have a floor on a number assets now being ring fenced to Octopus.

The revenues look dire to me. On 6th August last year the 2 hour index suggested £70.6k annualised per Mw. August 4th this year is £46.5k Those are rolling 30 day figures so average for a month if you like and include the capacity market. The drop in one hour batteries is even more severe.

@CC2014 surprised revenue dropping back that much as wind cycles between low and high days pretty repetitively and still get a few half hours of very low pricing when the sun is out. They may be doing better with the non BM assets if they are majoring on wholesale trading.

7-year GB BESS tolling agreement signed by Penso Power

BW ESS and Penso Power have signed a 7-year fixed price tolling agreement with Shell Energy for its Bramley Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) currently under construction in Hampshire, UK. The 100MW/313MWh asset is due to become operational in Q4 24. (Company Announcement)

So what? This is the 2nd major tolling agreement announced in the UK following GRID’s similar landmark agreement announced earlier this year. The revenue volatility of battery storage assets remains the key differentiating factor to core renewables and we expect the use of fixed-price tolling agreements to increase significantly as the sector matures, in turn improving stability of cash flows and hence access to project financing. Bramley will also be the longest duration battery asset in the GB market once operational (3.3 hours), further highlighting a separate market trend towards longer duration assets which are better placed for wholesale trading as opposed to ancillary service revenue.

Hi JTS

Just looking at the daily chart and all the MA's seem to be converging, however what is worrying for me is the recent death-cross, when the 20MA crossed below the 50MA around the 8th August.

The 20MA is now approaching the 100MA but slowing down. I appreciate the oversold nature of the RSI.

I'm no charting expert but it looks to me like either a bounce around 57, but if another death cross happens then we could go even lower ?

What chart reasoning do you have as a buy signal now or possibly soon?

Hi Eish

This is great for all holders, been a long time coming.

IMO one obstacle could be themselves not issuing a high enough dividend to justify yield on the share price.

Of course the jam tomorrow with Mintails coming online and the POG could take the SP into the 30s, but the market is fickle so PAF offering a lower dividend in favour of debt might be a barrier. However, the promise of a high divi next year, or introducing bi-annual dividends for example, would keep up the sentiment.

Many (including myself) will have taken profits or top sliced with this rise as well, which means a new set of retail or large holders at these prices, and possibly a sluggish share price.

Thanks Alex..

I'm amazed by the chart gap being filled but my plan to buy in the 170s after an ex-div drop doesn't look realistic. The forward fundamentals here are way too strong. I may invest more at these levels but no chance I'm selling my free holding.

I didn't think there would be another opportunity to buy Seplat at low prices.

Only a week to go until ex-div and with the so often expected sentiment drop afterwards could it be possible to buy lower than 170. Surely even with a wider market slowdown the yield prospects should keep up strength in the SP.

I'm setting a limit order.

I'm still in for 2 cents as the higher debt is countered by the increased cashflow of the gold prices April onwards.