Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Hi All.

FAIR is now currently at a few cents premium to it's NAV.

I hovered over the sell button today as my other investment funds are still at a large discount to their respective NAVs. The FTSE also seems over bought by several hundred points, which though doesn't directly effect us here, there is always the selling of everything as people pull out of investments to cover losses during a general market downtrend.

I may wait for the looming DIV announcement we're expecting in a week or more.

Anyone else thinking of taking profits with this NAV announcement ?

Agree, IMO interest rates won't be going up to levels that put Next Energy in danger.

I piled in a few weeks back in the early 70s, however this only bought my average down to around 80p, but still very happy with this. The SP will get back to the 90s, but only as time and the debts are less of a worry to the market imo.

Never seen this kind of thing with a company before, even amongst the wild west mining shares of AIM !

Yes BlueDefender as you say, they've loaned the money to their top directors to buy shares, putting up their own shares as security and the company taking the dividend as interest, which I estimate could equate to over 15% on the loaned part. How will this go down at the AGM ? What's to stop them doing this all the time with other directors.

Not sure about this as I much rather see them borrow the money from a bank on their earnings, but nevertheless it is a confident move on the prospective SP value for 2025 to 2026.

Hi, yes agree, but also Bluefield's buyback program is a show of strength above some of the other funds, unlike for example Next Energy, which has also has NAV discount but no buyback.

Yep. Correction, had two months to get the form right, all amongst a barren desert of news flow.

Slight reduction, he's still holding with patience.

An ex-director of the company, left in 2017. Just bought a lot of shares, all openly from his sole trader address.

From no significant holding (

Hi all. Results estimate Update. Only 6 weeks away until year end. Average Annual guidance (186k-190k) = 188k oz.

Q3 Jan to March, average POG = $2066, assume AISC $1350

Q4 April to June, average POG so far looks around $2310-ish, assume $2300 will be the average and AISC $1350

Q3 earnings estimate ( (Guidance of 188k for H2 - H1 production of 98.5k ) / 2 for the quarter = 44750oz ) x ( POG $2066 - AISC $1350 ) = $32m

Q4 earnings estimate ( (Guidance of 188k for H2 - H1 production of 98.5k ) / 2 for the quarter = 44750oz ) x ( POG $2300 - AISC $1350 ) = $42.5m

Add that to the $42.6m from H1 (Q1+Q2) makes total of $117.1m for the year.

IMO even being cautious means a dividend of around 2 cents or 1.6p in December. At a 6% yield would mean an SP of 26p/27p which is about right so far.

For 2024 to2025, Their estimate is 215k to 225k production, taking the average of that 220k and an AISC of $1400 and an average POG of $2200 all means potential earnings of $176m and a dividend of 3 to 4 cents, 2.8p.

With a yield of 6% that's an SP of 46p, and in 12 months from now, that's a 100% increase on investing today.

That's a nice reason to hold or trade to a good position IMO

Nice. Guidance maintained. This should firm up the SP. A post I did. Few weeks ago speculating annual results of 185k oz should be pretty on the money.

Maybe I am watching too closely today. Are we are being held back, slightly down today when all around the FTSE is up (even questionable companies are up several % today) GDX rose by two and a half percent yesterday, POG is still up 15 cents from Friday, buys outnumbering sells today, yet we're own nearly 1%.

Tried googling to see if anything is up at Barberton or the mines, no results, no load shedding going on.

I am nervous about production going down as the silence is getting louder from PAF, but a drop is already priced in with their 2nd half of the year guidance so low.

Thoughts ?

Looking good for a return to above 24.5p today.

GDX was up yesterday and the JSE shares closed at 24.3p

Everyone is still forecasting a drop in POG, but not happening yet.

We'll see.

One of the critiques by short sellers was because the dividend was not sustainable. Therefore a decrease makes it more sustainable. Didn't realise this was in question.

Anyone going ?

We could get an answer on the significance of 3750 during the Q&A.

The Short position is 5.87% now ! I would have thought the dividend decrease and consequential rise form 900 would have sparked some short closures but hardly at all. How is the company is going to deal with this. IMO the SP must get higher as the business depends on Acquisitions.

Also gauge how stupid they think we actually are. Someone came up with that ridiculous idea the dividend cash could buy shares that opted out of the dividend, when it was mathematically impossible.

Yeah, if we could all predict the market we'd all be millionaires much sooner. I bought back yesterday at 24.5, and could have got less than24 today. At least the SP bounced off the trend line on the one hour chart which I mentioned this morning. Image showing that here. https://postimg.cc/c6Ld2kLF

GDX is up and VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF are both higher today too. POG recovering too.

We'll see..

An improved production guidance RNS would be nice to see Mr Loots ?

Yeah, I jumped back in yesterday with my trading cash, the good news type feeling in South Africa could have a great effect on our guidance, production and so the SP too. 33 days without load-shedding so far.

The one hour chart shows an uptrend with a current low around 24p, the daily chart shows the bottom of the trend around 20p but that would mean the gold price breaking down to around $2130 on its daily chart uptrend. POG one hour chart is on a down trend, and the POG bounced right off the bottom of that trend yesterday. Down trends of course break upwards and that would be about $2350.

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/investing/534721-cautious-optimism-about-load-shedding.html

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/33-load-shedding-free-days-crime-is-down-business-is-up-as-lights-stay-on-20240502

Thinking aloud about China's relentless gold buying as part of the speculation they are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. Would the USA/West step in and out bid China to stop them getting it, so sending gold on a tremendous spike upwards ?

Nearly 10 pence down today. Oil price down a bit but wouldn't knock off 9 to 10p.

Without any reason other than profit taking or a June sign off means a few months delay hence another buying opportunity and DRIP days 29th May and 14th June.

So you think PAF will break rank, defy its history and behave like an American growth share...

Well I'd love to see it !!

Back in.. Now very overweight.

If there is a retrace to 23 or lower, I will be massively overweight..

Yield has loads to do with mining share market valuations, see FRES/CEY/GLEN/RIO etc. Hence why the mid 20's for PAF is a barrier. The market would only price PAF at 80p if there was seen to be a corresponding return, and that would be dividends and so a reasonable yield. Or if the POG went absolutely nuts, say $3000.

The UK based shareholders are subject to holding tax but not the SA holders.

If there is a 2c/3c dividend with the yearly results in August/September, then an SP in the late 20s/30s would be justified, which is about right if there is to be a gradual rise towards Mintails coming on line end of the year and production included in results for 2024 to 2025.

IMO To justify an SP of 80p they would have to be paying around a 5p/6p annual dividend. Not anytime soon, but perhaps in several years.

Agree about the chart, I was watching from 4pm today, unlike me as I tend to try and do anything but watch the market that closely as it tends to make me buy or sell too early. The gold price was bouncing off recent support at 2294, and PAF on about 24.25 which would be good to buyback my sale of the wow afternoon in the 25s, but IMO POG will break lower than 2294 and PAF could present opportunities in the 23s or lower. A really positive update increasing the annual guidance should strengthen the mid 20s which would also be great for my long term holdings. We'll see.