Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Oops my mistake, thats for the whole year., not just 6 months. Up too early today.

"The average achieved gold price for the Reporting Period was US$2,021/oz"

There is no way this can be correct....

Tichtich

Buybacks will alter the share price because the market values the company with a market capitalisation.

10% less shares means the SP will be around 10% higher if as you point out, the value of the company stays the same.

IMO A problem with buybacks is that they only reward sellers, ie. A retail or large investor will only get the profit from an SP increase if they sell. Each buyback carries a warning flag that a large holder might want out, and so need to sell the shares, which the company will happily buy, then should cancel. I prefer dividends as they reward holders, and any BOD incentive to reward share holders should be done by increasing market cap, not just the share price.

My point about UKW declaring dividend as an amount in currency, not as an amount per share, is if there becomes 10% less shares due to a buyback, then the dividend should increase by around 10% correspondingly with the same amount of money being used to pay shareholders.

Well this is annoying. Can't seem to find a particular reason for the drop apart from normal trading. Anyone?

Steady Ship, all looks good, another dividend. Hold..

I'm not the greatest fan of buybacks but this is ongoing. Would be good to see a dividend declared of the whole spend by the company rather than an amount per share. We'd benefit from a slightly increased dividend each quarter with ongoing buybacks, but this is only a niggle I have. Cheers all.

Hi all, I have to say, I'm pleased with this slow uptrend. Unusual if this is due to the buyback as brokers usually sit in the bid and feed off sellers. I would rather of had an extra dividend or return of capital with the 20m as a large buyback generally also signals to me that there is a large seller who wants out.

Anyway. is it back to the 90s (part 3).

Perhaps I shouldn't have said anything...

Lets hope so, a rise of 2000% would see me in profit !!

Hi Jim. They really need to do something about promoting themselves when just the posters on this board are responsible for such a high proportion of the trades. Only 26 trades over two days, and some of those we know are grouped together.

Can't see your trade Gillingham or any at 40.5 but I can see a £10k at 41.85 Monkshood.. I'm surprised there wasn't a bit more trading action today, however 20 trades compared to less than 9 is more than double recent daily volume. This will slowly rise IMO unless some of the 'herd' arrive. They could do if influenced or recommended, perhaps if there is news of another contract or a large cash boost from sales, in which case the SP could easily rise by 50% in a morning. Definitely buy and and get a position until the end of next year IMO. Cheers and GL.

This is great, revenues from USA, Boeing problems are no issue for the company, in profit the next 6 months.

IMO as an investment the SP should slowly rise over the next few years as Velocity grows. Currently any price around the last funding prices is a BUY.

"In line with previous guidance, Company expects to be profitable and cash generative in H2 FY24 underpinned by contracted revenues for FY24 of £27m (FY23: £16.4m) growing to £33m in FY25."

"Issues at Boeing and its supply chain have had no impact on the Company's FY24 revenue or forecasts"

"We have a large, qualified pipeline of potential contracts in the US and Europe of £200m, which makes us excited about the Company's long-term prospects."

Hi All.

I'm pretty happy with this so far though I appreciate there is several years to go and this is just the start.

Perhaps it depends if they have actually sold off 5.6% of the assets, and then canceled 5.6% of the shares and handed the cash gained which happens to be worth more like 8% of the company value due to these sold assets being realised at a premium to the current market value, OR... They have calculated what the net asset value is for redeeming 5% of the shares and paid it out of their cash flow without actually selling those assets off yet.

Anyway.. I take the former as the explanation and so believe the SP will be closing towards NAV the more assets are sold off. So far so good, the SP is rising. IMO this paragraph implies they will only pay the value to shareholders only once the CLO's are matured/redeemed/sold.

"Approval of the wind down will not result in an immediate liquidation of the Company, rather an orderly realisation of the Company's underlying assets in a manner consistent with regulatory risk retention requirements and other contractual restrictions on the liquidity of the Company's portfolio. Capital will be returned to shareholders as the Company's underlying CLOs are matured or redeemed and in a manner that seeks to maximise shareholder value. The Board intends to maintain the Company's listing during the realisation period. The Board intends to maintain its current target level of dividend until the commencement of the orderly realisation."

Somewhat up and down but still above 26p, a great share price level. The USD/ZAR rate is down sharply today.

Results are still some weeks away, but the POG and what we know about production and AISC make the last 6 months as good a set as results as we could hope for, and a PAF flag of success can be raised for the gold market to see.

Highlights are great IMO

The net asset value (“NAV”) total return (with DRIP) was 8.16%and the share price total return (with DRIP) was 26.84% (1 October 2022 to 31 March 2023: 5.07% and -0.65% respectively).

NAV per Ordinary Share (“Share”), excluding dividends distributed, increased by 2.95%

(1 October 2022 to 31 March 2023: 0.01% ) to close at 66.44 cents (31 March 2023: 64.06 cents).

The Company’s mid-market share price at 31 March 2024 was 52.50 cents (30 September 2023: 44.30 cents), representing

a discount to NAV of 20.98% (30 September 2023: 31.36%).

The profit for the Period was €15.8 million (31 March 2023: €9.8 million profit), or 5.13 cents profit per Share (31 March

2023: 3.2 cents profit per Share), taking into account recognition of the following significant items:

total income of €20.2 million (31 March 2023: income of €11.2 million) total operating expenses of €4.3 million (inclusive of €2.8 million performance fees. 31 March 2023: €1.4 million, €Nil

performance fees)

At 31 March 2024, the NAV was €205.0 million

Still going through the rest, 50 pages in the pdf.

Cheers all

Wow Pete640, you're really proving that a vote for Trump is moronic.

Solve Russia Ukraine - How ? By letting his pal Putin decimate Kiev or stopping the financial support of the Ukrainians and allow them to be crushed ? Just so you know that the financial support pledged is actually money given directly to the US defence industry who then donate the weapons marking off high costs from the balance sheet. Each billion is a billion basically given to US industry.

Biden has worked miracles with The US economy despite Trump leaving a monstrous debt pile, which he'll no doubt want to do again by pumping money into the banks and reducing the rich's taxes. Good for the US economy.. No, any educated person knows adding debt cannot go on ad infinitum. .

More O&G, yeah just about every educated scientist, and even those studied at school, the world over has who have been exposed to part or all of the decades long studies know climate change is real and how stupid it would be for the world to continue to exploit oil and gas.

Trump is arguable the most dangerous person on the planet and the parallels of MAGA to the America First movement that sympathised with Hitler's Nazi party in the late 1930s should not be lost on anyone who's studied history, that's real history, not programs like "Ancient Aliens" or other such rubbish I imagine you think is a documentary because it's on the History channel.

Arrived end of play on the 25th and today I have reinvested. It was that concern when the first dividend from a new investment doesn't arrive on the date specified. I should be used to it by now TBH that lateness.

Cheers all and GL.

Didn't receive my cash yet ? Anyone else?

Hi jjhbev

Good point, and yes, I think you're right.

Looking back at the trading statement from Feb RNS's.

H1 : Gold produced and sold 98458 at price of $1961 = revenue of $193m, so if profit was $42.4m shows costs of ((193m-42.4m) / 98458) = $1529 against their quoted AISC of $1287. Not sure what the taxes are, or whether the dividend was seen as a cost of 18.3m, which would still make cost per ounce of $1347, so looks like it must be after tax (15% ?).

Either way, we're heading for a bumper H2, Profits of $100m or more IMO, so a 40% payout means surely means at least 2 cents, which I think was my guestimate dividend already.

In just over a week, baring a massive move downwards in gold (very unlikely) the company will close off the quarter and start to get ready the annual report.

The average price of gold during the April/May/June quarter looks around $2330 ! Possibly higher figures too with load shedding no longer bashing down production.

A Blue Sky SP above 28p ( from memory) looks certainly on the cards. Awesome stuff.

Annual profit of around $120m, surely.

Copied from cautious estimate post on 9th May

Average Annual guidance (186k-190k) = 188k oz.

Q3 Jan to March, average POG = $2066, assume AISC $1350

Q4 April to June, average POG so far looks around $2310-ish, assume $2300 will be the average and AISC $1350

Q3 earnings estimate ( (Guidance of 188k for H2 - H1 production of 98.5k ) / 2 for the quarter = 44750oz ) x ( POG $2066 - AISC $1350 ) = $32m

Q4 earnings estimate ( (Guidance of 188k for H2 - H1 production of 98.5k ) / 2 for the quarter = 44750oz ) x ( POG $2300 - AISC $1350 ) = $42.5m

Add that to the $42.6m from H1 (Q1+Q2) makes total of $117.1m for the year.

Yes, good stuff, we discussed this a few weeks ago on this board I think. I wonder if more director buys will arrive now, each a decent stamp of approval.

Massive sale yesterday (1.565m shares) sending the price down into oversold territory chart-wise.

A one off or the last one for now.. I have to wonder if this is the same seller that's taken advantage of the buyback which then paused when NAV was reached so now sell in the normal market, or the cynical among us might say the reason for the buyback was to allow this seller(s) in the first place.

Well looks like I bought back in too early.. Annoyingly I'm getting use to trades going well then finding they could have gone so much better, normal life of an investor I suppose.