Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Where is the evidence that Blackrock increased their holdings?
Hi Mulder,
Yes, but I thought the complaint you had was about daily outflows from the LSE which look institutional, which this explains.
Overall, I am not worried at all. I have never been bothered by differences between the exchanges with PAF, as just as you say, it all pretty much evens out. That 5% difference could just as easily disappear within a few hours of it appearing, or hang around for a while, then not.
Hi Mulder
I think you'll find this is all too common with many shares and companies listed in the UK, since Brexit there has been constant outflows from the LSE.
Even the right-wing papers like the "ToryGraph" are on to it.
It would explain the constant sells and price suppression that's across the LSE.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/13/brexit-prime-suspect-death-london-stock-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-18/-screamingly-cheap-british-stocks-are-again-a-hard-sell-in-2024?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Another one of my African investments Seplat, has a constant 20% to 40% discount to it's African listing.
What an absolute sh...|....t show this has become. No mining, just Stifano and his mates sniffing and snouting as much as they can out of the value of the company to its death.
It was only a few years ago that 12000 oz of gold a year was being produced, and the underground mine would have allowed the open pit mine to be covered over, processing off site and so the locals would have had the best of both worlds, employment and the end result of countryside being restored.
Now neither. Juts a death by dilution cash cow for Sprott and Stifano.
Not even a spike to get out.
Is Rusty threatening the short-sellers ?
If DEC decide on skipping the dividend just for one quarter, then they'll have a whopping $40m to buy way more shares than shorters could possibly sell. If Dec halve the dividend, same. Surely shorters would close positions knowing there's 10s of millions of dollars sitting on the bid price, as the price could not go down, so no profits for shorters.
Thinking about this interview more.
Up another 10% today !!!
Notrex, I'm not suggesting anything.
But Rusty clearly is, with his own words in that interview. Now I appreciate that this goes against the DEC community mantra, and also my own investment reasons here, but it is what it is and these are his words below. If this was said by another CEO of any other listed company, reading between the lines would bring the same conclusion, prioritising buybacks and acquisitions over dividend outflows.
"We feel the current stock price is a on a valuation basis is a good bargain for us and for us to buy our own shares at these low prices and low valuation is the best use of some of our capital. So we'll be looking at ways to potentially do that to create capital to buy back shares, because we think that's probably one of the best uses of our cash at the present time".
I not in the interview there was no mention of the high importance of keeping the dividend in place, being a most obvious way of creating capital. I hate to say it but the dividend is really not looking safe now. But would this change be priced in already ?
Would holders here prefer that $42m a quarter being spent on buybacks, acquisitions or keep the dividend ?
I don't mind a cut in divi to half of what it was, as IMO that's more than priced in already.
We're up 4%, but to be honest we should be up by 4% just on the gold price movements already let alone a 45% increase in earnings. Surely the PAF SP is heading to the mid 20s, an extra 50k oz of production next year should take us to the 30s, even if it does the P/E will probably still be less than 4 or thereabouts.
Up over 8% in Nigeria today.
Shares in Nigeria priced equivalent to GBP 228p.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/summary?s=SEPLAT:LAG
Very significant chart-wise to get past 148/149.
Highest price for years. We could practically treat this as "blue sky" Nice.
That short selling report claiming 18 or 19% declination bothered me. So this is a rough calculation correct up for discussion.
Production rate of Q4 2022 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 Mboepd
Acquisition (Tanos) Production rate 17 MBoepd, Completed 2nd March 2023
Production rate of Q4 2023 reported in Jan 2024 = 136.8 Mboepd
(Take away production due to Tanos of 17 = 119.8
Decliniation rate as a percentage of what the rate was originally is therefore
(134/119.8 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11.85%
HOWEVER... If Tanos production itself declined by 10% in the time since acquired then Tanos produced only 15.3, which changes the above calculation like this
(134/(136.8-15.3) - 1) x 100 =
(134/120.7 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11%
It makes sense for the short sellers to lie to promote their case, and also for DEC to always massage their figures too, but the numbers must back them up. 11% is not far off 10%, and if the rate was taken as a percentage of the resulting production then 120.7 / 134 = 9% which of course is much nicer number to promote.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/completion-of-acquisition-credit-facility-upsize-zwvi19bb31k3fgu.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/trading-statement-55yfngjt4foyg3l.html
Ignore that. Some of my deletions have not taken effect.
That short selling report claiming 18 or 19% declination bothered me. So this is a rough calculation correct up for discussion.
Production rate of Q4 2022 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 Mboepd
Jan 2023 134 Mboepd
Acquisition (Tanos) Production rate 17 MBoepd, Completed 2nd March 2023
Production rate of Q4 2023 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 MboepdJan 2024 136.8 Mboepd
(Take away production due to Tanos of 17 = 119.8
Decliniation rate as a percentage of what the rate was originally is therefore
(134/119.8 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11.85%
HOWEVER... If Tanos production itself declined by 10% in the time since acquired then Tanos produced only 15.3, which changes the above calculation like this
(134/(136.8-15.3) - 1) x 100 =
(134/120.7 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11%
It makes sense for the short sellers to lie to promote their case, and also for DEC to always massage their figures too, but the numbers must back them up. 11% is not far off 10%, and if the rate was taken as a percentage of the resulting production then 120.7 / 134 = 9% which of course is much nicer number to promote.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/completion-of-acquisition-credit-facility-upsize-zwvi19bb31k3fgu.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/trading-statement-55yfngjt4foyg3l.html
Just came in and expected to see DEC 100 points higher than it is.
Instead we have algorithmic short-selling going on and all attempts on sentiment being driven to the pit again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Voleon_Group
Update was good. Ship sails steady and we expect another great dividend.
The transfer of LSE to NYSE carries on.
Any cash must go into a buyback or indeed the idea of borrowing to buy your own shares to gain the dividend to pay the interest, not sure if that's even legal but go for it.
Just pointing out that an SP of £10 is still only a paltry 50p a share in old money.
The shorting started around 1300p, this is where we should be heading back to as a start IMO.
Annual yield even after WHT is still standing at 22%
'Anticipating a happy valentine'
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/anticipating-a-happy-valentine/33168/
Valuation: Steady at 42.27c (33.46p)
As expected. lots of "Jam tomorrow" but we know Mintails is happening and the target of several 10s of 1000s above 200k annual production is where we are heading.
Page 7.
Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 12.1x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 5.31c per share for FY24 implies a share price for the company of 51.04p. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 9.2x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 6.00c per share implies a share price of 43.90p.
Readers’ attention is also drawn to the decline evident in the market’s year one yield estimate for PAF, which appears to suggest that it believes the company will cut its dividend in FY24 (or that the rand will fall very sharply versus the US dollar, but that this will otherwise not be reflected in the company’s results), which we regard as highly unlikely, except in extenuating circumstances.
So is this it ? The spike upwards in Seplat's market capitalisation due to the acquisition we've all been waiting for, or a higher dividend being declared. We'll see.
Patting my own back tonight...
I've had one of those rare trading two days where the plan went well ! Sold all my stake in Seplat at 136 yesterday, bought Dec at 848, sold this morning gaining 8%, bought the original shares back and more in Seplat first thing this morning , along with more UKW and lowered my DEC average, now Seplat is up by over 4% on the day. A well needed bottle of wind with the Mrs tonight )) Cheers and GL all.
If the average gas well produces 10 BOE/d at only $60 a barrel, that's around $220,000 revenue a year.
Which easily covers a plugging cost of $20k, $30k even $100k....
Basically, I'm not too worried about plugging costs. Just IMO.
"the average natural gas well produced about 192,591 cf/d (about 36 BOE/d of total oil and natural gas). "
" In 2022, 77% of the more than 912,962 U.S. wells
produced less than 15 BOE/d, and 7% of the wells produced more than 100 BOE/d. "
"What is a stripper well?
A stripper well, also called a marginal well, is an oil or natural gas well that is nearing the end of its
economically useful life. These wells can continue to produce small volumes for long periods. Many of
these wells are still operating, and together they produced approximately 6% of total U.S. oil and natural
gas in 2022. The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission defines a stripper well as a well that
produces 10 b/d or less of oil or 60,000 cf/d or less of natural gas during a 12-month period. The Internal
Revenue Service (IRS)—for tax purposes—defines this type of well as one that produces 15 b/d or less of
oil over a calendar year. In addition, 15 b/d or less of oil converts to 90,000 cubic feet or less of natural
gas per day over a calendar year. We use the IRS definition."
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/pdf/Well_Distributions_report_2023_frequently_asked_questions.pdf
They've done that for years. I don't see it elsewhere either, as the Dividend is supposed to be 40% of cashflow, but it is what it is and PAF has been a great investment for well over a decade.