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Smokeytime
He's just like us, been averaging down for couple years, he's more in the red than me !
Personally given the events of the last 6 months, I'm not going to start believing guidance until October's q3 update, and just hope for positive external factors in the meantime. Can't see much happening now on US rate cuts, probably be more next year than 24.
And by then we probably won't be so sensitive to rates.
The market here is simply awful, other companies that are generating decent profits and good FCF can barely keep green on a day like today, eg CARD, MONY, RNK.
God forbid any war escalation also, been quiet in Israel because of passover. That will be back next week no doubt.
Really frustrating where this share has ended up but an inside buy surely shows that a bid will not come now in next few months as that will be inside trading? Guess no one knows what's going on.
At even the lower end of the earnings forecast this would have a P/E ratio of less than 2 which is insane. I really can't work out this share. It screams buy more at me but then i see the shorts rising!
Paddyboy I think it was an RBC downgrade that started this leg down, exacerbated by the Germany thing soon after.
The only thing that makes any real sense to me is the City and the market simply does not believe any guidance that is given , and to be honest why should it and why should we.
They gave a load of bull at HY last year promising the cost increases in contracts would be weighted to H2, and then have consistently revised it down 4 times. Credibility is shot.
Similarly what happened at THG and it is going to take at least 3 - 4 quarters if meeting guidance to regain trust. If they meet the top end if guidance 205 for this year then 52p looks stupid. And this without any external catalysts to give it a boost.
I need to listen to the q & a again because there's something about the Alsa concessions ending next year that I'm not quite understanding also.
In 86 days this business has had £245m wiped off it's market value! That is bizarre. There will be a correction here i believe sooner than we might think!
I disagree. From a 30 year ATL to move from 50 to 80 in a day is not remarkable or out of the question at all. It doesn't need a T/O bid for that to happen either! People have very short memories. This was 90p+ just a matter of weeks ago. The rise stopped due to the results being delayed because of the Germany stuff. Bar Germany we already had the reduced earnings guidance which twonked it to the 50s last year. I really don't think the Germany stuff justifies a 40 fall from 90p!
"Also if the new CFO arrived & made a statement regarding her plan of action & the SP went from today's SP to say 80p in a day. Would you sell all your shares there & then?"
Other that announcing a NA sale that is highly unlikely. The accounts are pretty complex and its difficult to state a plan of action that drive the SP up in a day to 80p... Its a non serious statement to make
Reply
I remember buying SGC shares in the pandemic @31p.Unfortunately only a really small buy. Sold at 70ish if i recall. was way over £1 few months later!
This is just about sentiment. The sentiment will change here. time is a great healer!
Paddy thanks for your concern however I do not panic sale.
never did and never will. I had shares down 80% and I just kept them.
And the share price does not bother me anymore, like I said I have made my peace with it.
I just want to see how it unfolds.
Also if the new CFO arrived & made a statement regarding her plan of action & the SP went from today's SP to say 80p in a day. Would you sell all your shares there & then?
Fish, you are overthinking this one & too focused on the ticker. This will push you into a panic sell. Ask yourself the following questions: 1) is the business fully operational day to day?; Has anything changed fundamentally with the day to day operations recently?; Have they been making lots of redundancies?; Does it have enough funding at least in the short/medium term? When you bought your first tranche of these shares, why did you choose this stock? & bar the SP what has changed & can that be reversed?
Looking at the daily ticker will drive you up the wall. Best avoided!
Shorts come. They squeeze all the shares out of panic/distressed sellers hands on the cheap. They then leave having gone long and watched those lovely cheap shares head to the sky & the beleaguered seller looks on in dismay. Hold on tight to your shares!
Fish, if they announced a £50m share buyback after that update the SP would fall to the 30s!
shorts at the highest level now in the last 10 years.
makes you wonder if we are gonna see another hotel chocolate- this was my take for the last few months.
when i hear people saying that there is nothing the management can do it makes me laugh.
when you have 300 mil on the balance sheet and the debt repayments are well covered you can always announce a 50mil buyback which will stop this the next day-and there are others ways to if there is will.
who knows, maybe the cfo was not on board with what is happening here as there was no love between him and garat during the conference call.
i am intrigued now to see what happens and don't get me wrong, i am not selling my shares. just not buying anymore.
time will tell.
this seems so rehe****d it should not even be legal.
& yes KG is right. Personally i don't really care how much they dunk the ticker. I'm not selling any until the price reflects the value. This will force interested parties to show their hands!
Best not to concern yourself with it if you're already invested as nothing you can do. An opportunity for buyers when they do a raid on the SP though. It is what it is. Doesn't change anything what has already been discussed really. Not based on anything new & happens on loads of shares!
@JG68 - don't lose your marbles mate.. there are always many shorters below 0.5% threshold.. just because we don't see them appearing in the list doesn't mean they are not there. A lot of these small increases in shorts are driven by technicals and many of them are done by algos just following the trend.. tbh i don't mind more shorters appearing on the horizon; it will hasten whatever needs to happen which is either cosmens showing their hand or a PE firm looking at it from the angel of SOP valuation
JG, not really, they just know there'll be no update for a while so they can hammer & chisel away at this in the meantime. I'm surprised it's held above 50 tbh!
Jesus C, another one appears, we really are under the cosh and now being targeted.
I think this is going to get really ugly here.
Shorts probably don't believe the guidance and expect further profit warnings.
What an awful investment.
Yes there has been a plethora of companies taken private from LSE.
No one wants to be listed in UK anymore and I don't blame them.
That's good and the right move for you and the rest of us will probably lose some money here. best of luck.
Got well done on Darktrace